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After a 3-1 day for the Big East, an important weekend continues, with three high-profile games, and a tougher-than-meets-the-eye test for Creighton.
Full Schedule:
Saturday:
Noon: Wake Forest at Xavier (FS1), Wagner at Seton Hall (FS2)
1 pm: Notre Dame at Georgetown (NBC)
5 pm: Green Bay at Providence (FS2)
7 pm: Kansas City at Creighton (FS2)
Sunday, 12 pm: New Mexico at St. John's (FS1)
Wake Forest at Xavier
The Demon Deacons have started the season at 4-0, though they have yet to look the part of a dominant team. The Demon Deacons' highest profile performance is a 72-70 win over Michigan in Greensboro, NC.
The Deacons are led by star Guard Hunter Sallis, who averages 16.3PPG and 4APG. Sallis has been playing a lot of Point Guard for the Deacons this season, though in my opinion is much better off the ball. Sallis had a game-high 18 points in that contest, while Appalachian State transfer Tre’Von Spillers continued his productive play, adding 16 points of his own (6/7 FG, 2/3 3PT).
Spillers (11PPG, 9RPG) is joined by ex-Gonzaga Bulldog Efton Reid in the frontcourt. Reid averaged 9.6PPG and 7.9RPG for the Demon Deacons last season and has continued to play at a similar level. One concern for Reid in this game is foul trouble, as Reid has logged at least three fouls in every game this season, four fouls twice.
Xavier, much like Wake Forest, has yet to look the part of a dominant team. The Musketeers brought in six transfers expected to make an impact this season and returned two more players from injury, so it makes sense that this team has yet to round out into the best version of themselves.
Zach Freemantle has returned to his prior form through three games, averaging 19PPG and 7RPG for the Musketeers, while Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell has been as advertised. Conwell is second on the team with 18PPG while shooting a blistering 54.5% from long distance.
This game in my mind comes down to three-point shooting and the turnover battle. Against Michigan, Wake Forest was able to force 16 turnovers, allowing them to get buckets in transition and claim a competitive victory. Xavier, behind Davion McKnight’s staggering 16-2 Assist-to-turnover ratio this season, has done an excellent job at limiting turnovers through three games.
Both teams also like to shoot the long ball, but the Demon Deacons have been cold from beyond the arc this season, never shooting above 30% from three in a game. The Musketeers have caught fire from the long ball in their two most recent games and should look to use that again.
Xavier’s defense will be tested in this spot, but I think the offense does enough here to propel them to a victory over an NCAA Tournament-caliber squad in Wake Forest.
Pick: Xavier 87, Wake Forest 78
Notre Dame at Georgetown
This is the biggest game for the Hoyas in the Ed Cooley era (so far). The Hoyas have yet to show the best version of themselves, though freshman Thomas Sorber has been an absolute star for the Blue & Grey this season. Sorber earned Big East Freshman of the Week after averaging 22.5PPG and 11RPG through two games.
Sorber has shown capabilities at all three levels, though meets his toughest test of the season against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have an eye-catching offense but have also done a great job of limiting opponents to shooting just 41% inside the arc this season.
The Fighting Irish are led by star guard Markus Burton, the ACC’s Rookie of the Year last season. Burton averaged 17.5PPG a season ago, to go with 4.3APG and 1.9 Steals per game. Burton has built off his freshman form, averaging 18.5PPG through Notre Dame’s two games.
The Fighting Irish under Head Coach Micah Shrewsberry run a very intricate offense, not too dissimilar to the Villanova teams under Jay Wright. They will often look to secondary transition breaks to get three-point opportunities for their shooters, like Braeden Shrewsberry (18.5PPG, 54.5% 3PT) and Matt Allocco (12.7PPG, 50/40/90 club with Princeton last season).
Notre Dame also features Seton Hall transfer Tae Davis, who is averaging 18PPG this young season, after averaging 9.2PPG a year ago.
The Hoyas will need their backcourt to be connected in this game. Malik Mack and Jayden Epps both have yet to get their feet under them this season, though Epps did shine in Georgetown’s opener against Lehigh. The Hoya backcourt has struggled with turnovers this season, logging just 16 assists to 14 turnovers, and will have to be stronger with the ball in this one.
Forward Micah Peavy has been a revelation for the Hoyas in this young season, doing a little bit of everything. He’s averaging 14PPG, 4.5RPG, 3.5APG, 1.5BPG, and an absolutely staggering five steals per game. Peavy has been a defensive force for the Hoyas, and they will need him to help contain Burton off the drive (whether that’s on the ball or in help defense) to contain this Notre Dame offense, which is averaging 87.5PPG thus far.
This is a huge moment for the Hoyas, and one I see them coming through in. Is it because I want this to happen and am picking with the heart? Possibly.
Pick: Georgetown 77, Notre Dame 73
New Mexico at St. John’s
This game features Rick Pitino’s St. John’s playing his son Richard’s New Mexico team and Coach Pitino is playing against his former player at Iona, Nelly Junior Joseph. During this young season, Joseph is averaging 18PPG and 12.3RPG, including an excellent 16-point, 12-rebound performance in New Mexico’s win over UCLA.
Donovan Dent is the star for New Mexico as one of the best PG’s in the country. Dent averaged 14.1PPG and 5.4APG as a part of a loaded backcourt last season. It opens up for Dent, and he has taken over, averaging 19PPG and 9.7APG, logging two double-doubles this season. Dent is electric, and I’m very interested to see how St. John’s guards him.
St. John’s has been an odd team this year. The Johnnies have played two below-average first halves in their last two games, then have turned it up a level and blown out their inferior opponents. The St. John’s defense has been swarming, as expected, considering the high-level athletes they have.
The offense for the Johnnies has come from different guys on any given day. RJ Luis has been a double-figure scorer in all three SJU games, including a 24-point, 13-rebound performance in a win over Quinnipiac. Simeon Wilcher has been a consistent producer, averaging 13.3PPG and Deivon Smith has been averaging 6.3APG (13 points, 10 assists against Quinnipiac) and 2.7 steals per game.
This Johnnies defense and their elite length can cause real problems for a smaller New Mexico team. Donovan Dent and his New Mexico teammates have gone against an excellent defense with UCLA, but I think this is a different level.
Pick: St. John’s 76, New Mexico 69
These next three are buy games, so I will go over much more briefly, especially as we get deeper.
UMKC at Creighton
Notes:
UMKC was the preseason Summit League favorite
2-1 this season, 0-1 against D1 competition (Iowa State)
Jamar Brown was on the Summit League All-Preseason First Team, averaging 18.3PPG, 8RPG and 2.7SPG
Sophomore Jayson Petty has taken a jump this year
The Roos do not have a match-up for Ryan Kalkbrenner on the inside. Creighton bullies them inside
UMKC can score with them, but won’t stop the Jays
Pick: Creighton 89, UMKC 70
Green Bay at Providence
Coach Gottlieb comes to Providence (I just love saying Coach Gottlieb)
1-2 on the season
Guard Anthony Roy is a star, leading the Phoenix in all five statistical categories, including 28.7PPG and 5.3RPG
Marcus Hall has been a solid second option, good shooter
Green Bay has put up at least 76 points in each game. They can score, their offense has been pretty efficient this season
Defense…. Cone.
Providence’s offense should start to get going, at least a little bit, in this matchup
Pick: Providence 75, Green Bay 64
Seton Hall at Wagner
I have no idea what to do with Seton Hall
Chaunce Jenkins has been by far and away Hall’s best offensive player, averaging 14PPG. He’s been the only true creator.
Seton Hall is shooting 37.6% from two and 57.1% from the FT line this season.
They’re playing slow and shooting just about nothing from three
Wagner also plays incredibly slow
In game one against Rutgers, this was said on the broadcast
This game is going to be very ugly. Watch Xavier vs Wake Forest instead, if you wish.
Pick: Seton Hall 55, Wagner 42
I picked the Big East to go 6-0. That’s… very homerish.
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