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Saturday marks rivalry day, and the final big day of the non-conference schedule. There will be a couple of non-conference games here and there, but all things considered, this marks the last chance to make a stance and get the conference a couple of key wins against non-Big East foes.
I took this graphic right from the Big East Twitter Page, I will be fully honest
Here are some notes on each game, and what to look forward to:
Wichita State at DePaul (-1.5), 1 pm FS1
This marks an interesting test for DePaul. After starting the season on fire, they’ve cooled off and welcomed a competitive Wichita State team to town.
Wichita State’s lone loss of the season comes at the hands of a Top Ten Florida team who blitzed them from beyond the arc. Florida’s backcourt is up there for best in the country, and they showed why in this game. Former member of Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels, Walter Clayton, led the Gators with 19 points.
Wichita State is a team that plays through their guards, often running a ton of four-guard lineups. Wichita State looks to push the ball, so DePaul will have to make sure to contain these guards and keep this game in a half-court setting where DePaul can execute. The speed of Wichita State could cause DePaul some problems, and Wichita State’s bigs are pretty efficient in their smaller roles, though guarding the perimeter and David Skogman is a completely different challenge.
This is a game we’ll learn about this DePaul team. Wichita State I think will be susceptible to being beat from beyond the arc, but if Wichita State can control tempo and force misses, the long shots will lead to runouts.
Xavier at Cincinnati (-7.5), 2 pm, ESPN+
There’s something weird about the shootout being on ESPN+. But anyway, this is a Cincinnati team that faced their first test a little over a week ago, and… well I think they’ll remember the name Eric Dixon.
One thing Cincinnati has done really well this season is run teams off the three-point line(aside from Villanova). The Bearcats have forced six of their eight opponents to shoot 28.6% or worse from beyond the arc. In this young season, Xavier has been one of the best teams in the country from long distance, shooting 40.1% from distance.
Xavier has also been a very good rebounding team, cleaning up on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to have the eighth-lowest offensive rebounding percentage (22.7%) in the country. Cincinnati meanwhile generates a ton of offensive rebounds, which could be stifled in this game.
However, watching Xavier play, it’s abundantly clear their best offense is in transition. Xavier wants to get out and run and if they can’t, they have been underwhelming. Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. They have a lot of defensive length, get back really well in transition and want to suffocate teams. It did not work against Eric Dixon, but likely if the Musketeers want to pull off the upset, they have to push the pace and speed up this UC team, who they have beaten in each of the past five seasons.
Wisconsin (-5) vs Butler, 2:30 pm, Big Ten Network
I wrote an article on this game which you can read here, but to briefly summarize:
Wisconsin is an awesome free throw shooting team, but Butler doesn’t foul
Butler is an awesome three-point shooting team, but Wisconsin runs teams off the line
Game will likely be slow-paced
Wisconsin has made fewer mistakes this season, slight lean Badgers
Georgetown at Syracuse (-1), 2:30 pm, ACC Network
I cut a promo on this game, I got far too excited. I cannot cover it unbiasedly. That said, here will be some notes:
JJ Starling will miss this game for Syracuse. Starling was the leading scorer for this Orange team, averaging 19.8PPG on the season. He initiated a lot for them offensively, and his loss gives them much less of a spark offensively. Freshman phenom Donnie Freeman will likely lead the Orange here, and really show off his athleticism, though is pretty raw still. He averages 14PPG and 8.7RPG, and might hear his name called in June just based on his sky-high potential.
Jaquan Carlos runs the PG for the Orange and has yet to perform to expectations. He’s averaging 5.2PPG, 4.7APG (this number is very solid) shooting 33.3% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. Carlos played his three best games in his last three and will have to be playing at that level if Red Autry can move to 2-0 against Ed Cooley.
Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber should have a huge advantage. His mobility is levels above Eddie Lampkin, and Georgetown should look to attack Lampkin in the pick-and-roll all game long. Micah Peavy likely draws the assignment of either the aforementioned Freeman or Chris Bell, who shot 42% from three last season.
The Hoya guards should get going in this spot, this is a matchup both Mack and Epps should look to shine in.
Neither of these teams shoot the ball well at all (29.2% vs 27.3% from three), so this game will likely be played inside the arc. Georgetown excels on the offensive glass, while the Orange rebound really well defensively, so that will be an angle to watch for in this matchup. Georgetown’s guards should be able to control this game, make enough plays, and hopefully give Coach Cooley’s group their first marquee win in conference play.
Seton Hall at Rutgers (-13.5), 3 pm FOX
This Rutgers team, headlined by their two Star freshmen (Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, both will hear their names in the NBA Lottery this summer) plays much differently than any other team under Coach Pikiell. These Knights live at the free-throw line, and love to push the pace whenever they can. They are battle-tested, with competitive losses to Alabama and Texas A&M, and wins over Notre Dame and Penn State.
Meanwhile, every Seton Hall game is broadly the same. If you’ve watched two Seton Hall games, you’ve seen them all. Sometimes the shots fall, but Seton Hall is usually playing a game only a mother could love. The Pirates are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, turning the ball over a ton and shooting it very poorly from inside the arc and from the free-throw line, but surprisingly shoot it fairly well from three.
I don’t have too much to add to this game. Seton Hall is going to try to push around Rutgers’ freshmen and might have some success early on, but I think the young guys make enough plays to beat their in-state rival in a packed Rutgers Athletic Complex.
St. Bonaventure vs Providence (-2.5), 5 pm CBSSN
Providence vs Adrian Wojnarowski’s Bonnies.
I’ve been a fan of how Coach Mark Schmidt runs his team for a couple of seasons now. They haven’t typically had the most resources for an A-10 program, but they find a way to be competitive every single year, typically punching above their weight class. They remind me of East Coast St. Mary’s, albeit not to the same level of success St. Mary’s has had.
The Bonnies run most of their offense through their three guards: Dasonte Bowen, Melvin Council and Chance Moore. Big man Noel Brown joins the guards as the four Bonnies averaging in double figures on the season, with Missouri State transfer Chance Moore leading the way with 15.6PPG (50.5% FG) and 6.8RPG.
The Bonnies have done a very good job this season of forcing teams to take tough three-point looks, which has led them to their 9-1 record, with the lone loss coming to an undefeated Utah State team. The Aggies beat St. Bonaventure at the free-throw line, which is pretty rare considering how little St. Bonaventure fouls.
I imagine St. Bonaventure starts Forward LaJae Jones on Bryce Hopkins, and has Moore and Council hound the Providence guards on the perimeter. Both teams want to slow the game down, with Providence having a couple of key advantages.
When the Friars get hot, they can put together buckets in bunches which I don’t think St. Bonaventure has the firepower to match. Providence also should be able to control the glass against a smaller opponent. The Bonnies look to score often on the interior, where Providence’s defense best anchors down.
This game will be very competitive, and I actually think the Bonnies present Providence a ton of problems. I think they execute better and can limit the Providence offense and force turnovers. Providence fans shouldn’t overlook this St. Bonaventure team in what profiles to be a very competitive game.
UPDATE:
Won't change anything I've written, expect guard Jonah Hinton to play big minutes. Bonnies might use Moore as more (pun not intended) of an offensive initiator. Definitely means the Friar guards should have an advantage in this one.
Marquette (-1.5) at Dayton 7 pm, CBSSN
The second game of a Big East/A10 doubleheader has the Marquette Golden Eagles traveling to a very tough Dayton environment to take on the Flyers. The Flyers feature a former mainstay in the Big East, Posh Alexander, who has yet to really hit his stride for this Flyers team.
Dayton is one of the toughest places in the country to play, with one of the best home-court advantages. And people will be packing that place to see their hometown Flyers take on a Top Five team in the country.
Dayton was very competitive in Maui, playing games that went down to the wire against North Carolina and Iowa State, before beating UConn fairly comfortably, something Big East fans know how difficult to do. The Flyers have been one of the best offenses in the country this season, led in scoring by their sharpshooting duo, Enoch Cheeks and Nate Santos, averaging 16PPG and 14PPG respectively. Cheeks shoots a respectable 46.9% from three, while Santos is at 47.3%.
Their offense is largely initiated by their star PG, whose game I absolutely love, Malachi Smith. After playing just seven minutes last season, Smith returns and just has such excellent control over any game. He knows when to attack and score for himself, averaging 11.6PPG while shooting 52.9% from the floor and a staggering 63.2% from three (12/19). Smith is also one of the best playmakers in the entire country, averaging 5.5 assists per game with just 1.8 turnovers. He ranks inside the Top 50 in the country in both assists and assist-to-turnover ratio.
Not to be outdone, Kam Jones is averaging a ridiculous 20.3PPG, 6.6APG to just 1.4 turnovers per game, and is tied for sixth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio. This guard matchup is going to be absolutely phenomenal, and I’m really interested to see if Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross can keep Smith off his game. Marquette’s defense ranks top five in the country in forced turnovers, while the Flyers rank inside the Top 10 in fewest turnovers. Something has to give in this matchup.
The game I’ll talk about next is by far the best game, but I’d argue strongly this is the second-best game on this loaded slate (at least in regards to the Big East). I think Marquette’s defense will cause Dayton enough problems in this one, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Flyers home court pushes them to a victory. This game will be very even throughout and should be an incredibly fun one.
Gonzaga (-2.5) vs UConn, 8 pm, FOX
UConn fans love to claim that MSG is a second home to them, and they could really use that environment against an excellent Gonzaga team. In my mind, this is pretty clearly the best game on this college basketball slate, and one that should capture everyone’s attention.
UConn started the season pretty slowly but has rebounded with some big wins over Texas and Baylor. UConn as a team utilizes the long ball about as well as any team in the country, and that remained true in their wins over those two Texas teams. Against Gonzaga, that’s much easier said than done. The Bulldogs are limiting teams to just 24.9% from beyond the arc, which ranks second best in the country.
The Bulldogs aren’t going to push UConn around quite like Memphis was able to, but they have a very familiar face at Point Guard who has elite control of any game he’s in. Gonzaga’s Ryan Nembhard is one of the best guards in the country, averaging a ridiculous 10.7 assists per game, which easily leads the country, while turning the ball over just 1.7 times per game, which has him with the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country.
UConn will likely have to keep this game in the halfcourt and find a way to mitigate this dynamic Gonzaga offense. The Bulldogs have six guys on the season averaging in double figures, including 15.3PPG and 7RPG from big man Graham Ike inside. Ike leads the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes on KenPom, which could make this one a short outing for UConn’s Samson Johnson.
The Huskies in turn shouldn’t be overwhelmed athletically here and should find their opportunities on the offensive end. Alex Karaban was excellent in the Texas game and will need to bring it again in this one. UConn’s offense is excellent at generating good opportunities around the rim, and those were the exact types of buckets Kentucky used to knock off Gonzaga in Seattle.
I expect this game to be competitive throughout, and very high-scoring, which should make this a really fun one.
Creighton at Alabama (-10.5), 8:30 pm, SEC Network
Rounding out the slate will be Creighton’s first test without Pop Isaacs as they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on a potentially budding rival in Nate Oats’ Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Tide have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and will be very battle-tested, but have yet to face a big man quite like Ryan Kalkbrenner. Kalkbrenner controls everything around the rim on both ends of the floor, which presents an interesting challenge for how Nate Oats looks to play him. Do the Crimson Tide go with the defense of Cliff Omoruyi, which is precisely why they brought him in, or do they look to go smaller and force Kalkbrenner to guard the perimeter?
It’s a really interesting dynamic, but I think one matchup that plays huge in Alabama’s favor is at guard. Mark Sears has yet to perform to the lofty standards that was expected of him after averaging 21.5PPG while shooting 50.8% from the field and 43.6% from beyond the arc. Still, this is a matchup that favors a player like Mark Sears and should have him looking like the guy he was expected to be in the preseason. It will be interesting to see if Creighton tries to play Ashworth on him, or if Jamiya Neal gets the assignment to put more size on Sears.
Still, if it isn’t Sears, Alabama has gotten excellent production from Aden Holloway and Labaron Philon off the bench, which will provide an offensive spark I don’t think Creighton can match. I think Alabama rolls here.
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