.png)
Coming off of an Arizona Tip-Off Championship and a win over Eastern Illinois, the Butler Bulldogs are taking on by far their toughest test of the season, traveling to the Fertitta Center to take on the #17 ranked Houston Cougars on ESPN2 at 5:30 EST.
Know the Opponent
Houston entered the season as a top-five opponent but has struggled a bit more than expected this season. Their losses are very excusable, but they have looked vulnerable. They lost to Auburn, arguably the #1 team in the country, Alabama, the preseason #1 team, and a pretty surprising defeat to San Diego State in the Players Era Invitational. Both the Alabama and San Diego State losses came in overtime.
One huge note for Houston is that they are feeling the loss of Jamal Shead. Shead was the Big 12 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year last season. He got a bucket whenever the team needed him to and was an excellent set-up man. Replacing him has been Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan, who has been effective (8.6PPG, 5.4APG) but isn’t the same floor general, leader, and scorer that Jamal Shead was.
The guards are the leading scorers for this Houston team. LJ Cryer leads the teams averaging 14.6PPG, though this season Cryer has been shooting the worst field goal percentage (36.7%) and three-point percentage (33.3%) for his career. How much of that is variance, and will bounce back given Cryer’s clear skill, or how much is Cryer not having the true PG next to him that he always has? Cryer is a very on-and-off scorer, he's a guy capable of going for 30 on any given night, but also has nights where he puts up six points on poor shooting splits.
The sharpshooting guard Emmanuel Sharp (see what I did there?) is Houston’s second-leading scorer and has taken a step up from last season. Through seven games, Emmanuel Sharp is shooting 52.6% from three, 20/38 for the season. Emmanuel Sharp is a lethal shooter and a bigger-bodied 6’3” 210lb guard.
Houston is a very balanced team, with their next seven scorers averaging between 9.3 and 4.7 PPG. They have a ton of offensive balance and multiple guys, aside from Sharp and Cryer, who can beat you on any given day. They comfortably go 9/10 deep into their bench, which helps them play as physically demanding as they do for all 40 minutes.
However, Houston’s bread and butter is on the defensive end. Houston’s defense has been a calling card since Kelvin Sampson has rebuilt their program, and this season is no different. Houston plays very physically, forcing teams to run their offense a step or two back from where they want to. The Cougars also rank eighth in the country in block rate and 21st in forced turnover rate.
Houston’s defense forces some tough, contested three-point looks. Butler has proven they can knock down some tough looks from outside and needs their three-point shooting to shine again in this spot. It will be tough for their offense to generate the same quality looks against Houston that they have all season.
Houston’s best offense might be on the offensive glass. The Cougars collect 36.3% of their misses, which ranks 35th in the country. That number has translated very well against high major opponents with the Cougars collecting 17 offensive rebounds against San Diego State, 16 against Alabama and 15 against an imposing Auburn frontcourt.
How Butler Might Attack
Houston plays imposing defense, which will take Butler out of their actions. Houston will collect offensive rebounds, as they do against just about everybody. Butler has struggled with turnovers all season and will need to use Jahmyl Telfort as a ball handler to initiate action in this game. Houston has five guards who all average over one steal per game this year, which allows them to put pressure on your ball handlers all game long.
However, there are some vulnerabilities. Houston too doesn’t have a true PG and struggles to generate consistent looks in the halfcourt. Houston’s offense inside the arc has not been efficient this season, with the Cougars shooting just 45.6% from inside the arc on the season, which is the second worst of any high-major team (Seton Hall, of course, is the worst).
Houston’s best offense this year has come from the three-point line, with Houston shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc, which ranks fourth in the country (for comparison, Butler is seventh at 41.8%, on higher volume). Butler’s defense has done a great job of running teams off the three-point line this season, though part of that can be attributed to teams like Northwestern and SMU functioning largely inside the arc. Still, Houston looks to draw fouls and get opportunities around the rim, two areas where Butler thrives defensively.
Buckets will be tough to come by for the Bulldogs. Jahmyl Telfort and Pierre Brooks must show they can get theirs, especially given their size advantage. However, if there’s one team this huge Butler lineup won’t phase, it’s Houston. Houston isn’t the biggest team, but they are tough and will fight for every loose ball/rebound or whatever else you could imagine.
Prediction
This is a very tough matchup for Butler. The first road game of the season is in a hostile environment against a preseason Top Five team in the country. I expect this game to be very slow-paced and ugly, the type of game Houston thrives in. They will force turnovers and keep this one pretty low-scoring. Butler will have a tougher time executing their half court offense, and I think Houston is equipped to run a similar gameplan that Austin Peay did against Butler. I think the Bulldogs shooting will keep them in this game, but it will largely be a 7-12 point game throughout, which Houston pulls away in.
Houston’s ability to force turnovers and rebound offensively will highlight some Butler weaknesses that haven’t been noticeable in recent games. If Butler misses boxouts in this game, they will pay dearly. If Butler can rebound well and avoid turnovers, I actually think this Houston team is very vulnerable. But their strengths coming in areas of weakness for Butler startles me enough to avoid picking the upset.
Final Score: Houston 65, Butler 56
Comments