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After a pretty controversial win over Northwestern yesterday, the Butler Bulldogs will play in the Arizona Tip-Off Title Game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Mississippi State Players to Watch
Josh Hubbard: 18.7PPG, 3.5APG, 48.1% FG, 48.9% 3PT
Hubbard is a gunslinger. High volume 5’11” guard, but he is electric. Hubbard can go for 30 on any given night, proven by his career high of 34 in a loss to Kentucky last season. He’s a proving high-volume scoring guard that Butler can’t let get going in this game.
KeShawn Murphy: 12PPG, 8.5RPG, 2.3APG, 1.3SPG, 1.3BPG
Murphy is their do-it-all defensive big. He’s a big 6’10” and anchors the interior for Mississippi State, after taking a pretty big jump from his sophomore to his junior seasons. He will play some minutes at the four in Mississippi State’s bigger lineups but mostly is a five-man for them.
The Rest of the Guards:
Mississippi State’s offense runs entirely through its guards. One of them can beat you on any given day. Kanye Clary is the fifth-leading scorer on this team after averaging 16.7 PPG at Penn State last season. Claudell Harris averaged 13.7PPG at Boston College last year and is now averaging just under 10PPG. Riley Kugel had high expectations in his time at Florida and now joins Mississippi State looking to provide a spark off the bench. This will be a huge matchup for Butler’s guards and will test their defensive abilities.
Mississippi State’s Style
One thing Mississippi State has done very well all season long is avoid turnovers. They have the second-lowest turnover rate in the country this season, and do a great job of forcing turnovers on the other end (fourth-highest defensive steal rate). Butler has to keep the turnover battle negligible and not give up extra possessions and extra shot attempts to a very, very good Mississippi State team.
Under Coach Jans, MSU has a clear defensive identity. They play really physically and force a ton of turnovers and tough-contested looks. Through six games this season, they haven’t given up the same percentage of three-point looks as they have in seasons past, but the long ball, much like it has been for the Bulldogs in every game this season, is likely the path to victory yet again.
Prediction
I think this is a pretty bad matchup for Butler. Butler’s size will need to be very evident in this game, and the Bulldogs must be ready to hustle back in transition. These Mississippi State guards are really quick and put buckets together in bunches. Mississippi State in my mind is a Top 25 team at this point, which has been proven in some of their dominant wins.
The MSU guards will be some of the toughest covers Butler will face all season. Hubbard is a First Team All-SEC caliber player, and containing him is much easier said than done. I expect Mississippi State to limit turnovers, generate second opportunities, and also get their guards going.
Final Score Pick: Mississippi State 78, Butler 65
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