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Basketball is finally back on our TVs. After a long offseason, basketball takes center stage at Hinkle Fieldhouse as the Missouri State Bears come to town.
Missouri State Overview
Missouri State finished 17-16 last season and let Dana Ford go, bringing back Coach Cuonzo Martin. Martin previously led the Bears for three seasons, from 2008-11. In Martin’s third season at Missouri State, his team went 26-9 (15-3) and Martin won the MVC Coach of the Year.
In the eleven seasons following, Martin led Tennessee, California and Missouri to a combined four tournament appearances, including a Sweet 16 appearance with Tennessee. Martin was fired from Missouri after a 12-21 season in 2021-22 and is returning to the sidelines this season.
Here’s where the Bears were projected to finish in the Missouri Valley (out of 12 teams) this season, with the following analytical rankings:
KenPom: 206 (tenth in the conference) (eighth-ranked team is 201)
Torvik: 263 (last in conference)
EvanMiya: 253 (ninth in conference)
Haslam: 154 (ninth in conference)
Their Projected Starting Lineup
Dez White, Vincent Brady, Jalen Hampton, Mike Osei-Bonsu, Allen Udemadu
White and Brady are their likely backcourt, with both making their respective all-freshman teams in their career. White was a member of the A-Sun All-Freshman Team after at Austin Peay, averaging 7.9PPG, shooting 36.6% from the field and 33.3% from long distance. White made 63 threes last season, with over 76% of his attempts coming from long distance. Brady played two seasons at IUPUI (it will always be IUPUI to me) and averaged 9.1PPG and 3.4 RPG, shooting 38.6% from the field and 21.5% from three, with 52% of his attempts coming from long distance.
Two JUCO transfers will run the forward positions for Missouri State, Jalen Hampton and Mike Osei-Bonsu. Jalen Hampton is a skilled forward from South Plains College, after starting his career at Northwestern State. Hampton averaged 13.1PPG and 9.1RPG last season, as an athletic slash-first wing that does his best work around the rim.
Michael Osei-Bonsu transferred from Vincennes College and looks like a football player playing basketball. He’s a 6’4” 280lb big of pure muscle. Osei-Bonsu was a third-team NJCAA All-American and helped lead his Vincennes team to the NJCAA Elite Eight, averaging 12.2PPG and 9.6RPG.
Rounding out the last starting spot, the Bears have options. For matchup sake, I would expect them to run out Morgan State transfer Allen Udemadu a 6’10” big man who averaged 7.8 PPG and 6.7 PPG last season. However the Bears have some flexibility at this spot, and this one could be either some smaller guards or JUCO transfer Wesley Oba.
King is a 3* freshman guard
How Butler matches up
Missouri State’s guards are aggressive shooters but aren’t the most efficient. White was the sixth leading scorer on Austin Peay last season (Butler’s next opponent) and Brady was the third leading scorer on an IUPUI team that won just three games against Division One opponents last season. Butler’s guards should be at a huge advantage here and cause problems on both ends for Missouri State.
I expect Hampton and Osei-Bonsu to be the two best players for the Bears. Hampton’s athleticism could present some problems, he’s aggressive and rebounds really well. You have to make sure to box him out and find him in transition.
Osei-Bonsu will do most of his scoring on the interior, but against 7’0” Andre Screen, or the physically imposing presence of Jahmyl Telfort, I think this could be a very tough matchup for him. He’s been able to physically overpower players at the JUCO level, which might not translate as well against this Butler team. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Butler could get him in foul trouble, which would take away a huge part of Missouri State’s offense.
I think Butler creates problems for Missouri State at almost every spot, truth be told. The guards are just better, and Butler’s a big team which is a tough matchup for a mid-major team relying on their strength. The Bears aren’t a great outside shooting team and will do their best to beat Butler inside.
Missouri State has also struggled in their preseason games, which was enough to raise an eyebrow. They fell to the preseason #360 ranked team here in a secret scrimmage.
And squeaked by Southwest Baptist College, 72-65 who was last in the Great Lakes Valley Conference (D2) Preseason Poll, by a pretty wide margin.
Coaches use these games very differently, so I normally don’t want to take away too much from these games, but these results are... bad. Really bad. Even when you are just running out playing street ball style, you should out-talent these teams by a wide margin.
Summary
This is a showcase spot for Butler. This team is very experienced, likely starting four seniors/grad seniors against a team with limited Division One experience.
Missouri State doesn’t have the roster to expose some of Butler’s weaknesses and if anything those areas are still strengths for Butler. Michael Osei-Bonsu fouled out in 20 minutes against Southwest Baptist College, and if he’s forced to guard Telfort/Brooks/McCaffery on the perimeter, the speed advantage should be vast. He’s going to have to foul. If he also gets matched up with Screen on the block, he's going to have to foul to prevent Screen from getting to his dominant right hand.
Quite frankly I don’t think this game will be all that competitive. I think Missouri State is being over-projected by some analytical sites at this point, tying this all back together. They’re much closer to that floor projection from Torvik/EvanMiya than their other projections. Especially while this team hasn’t gelled yet. Factoring in the matchup, I think this spot favors Butler almost entirely across the board.
Picks/Betting Angle:
Butler opened as a -13.5pt favorite across some books. The number has gotten up to 15.5 on most shops at this point. Frankly, I don’t think this line should be much under 20.
I think the Bulldogs win this game by 20+ and have already put my money where my mouth is.
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