Butler has played their five best halves of basketball this season in their most recent five, but Northwestern in the Arizona Tip-Off marks the stiffest test.
Game Time: 7 pm Thanksgiving Night on CBSSN
Northwestern Players to Watch
Nick Martinelli: 23.8PPG, 6.8RPG, 60.2% FG, 8/12 3PT
I was taken aback when I saw Martinelli putting up these numbers. He’s a skilled faceup wing, not the most athletic but he has very savvy ball skills. He was a guy I expected to take a step up without Boo Buie, but jumping from 8.8PPG to 23.8PPG is staggering. Martinelli had 32 points against Dayton, a Dayton team that has been impressive in defeat at Maui, marking his career high.
He does most of his scoring inside the arc, though has the perimeter jumper to back it up. He’s an effective scorer at all three levels and has legitimate ball skills to match, and multiple post moves he can go to.
Brooks Barnhizer: Preseason All-Big Ten First Team
Barhnhizer has played just two games this season, after missing the first four due to injury. Barhnizer was expected to be the best player on this Northwestern team after averaging 14.6PPG and 7.5RPG a season ago. In this young season, Barnhizer is averaging 16.5PPG, 8RPG and 4.5APG.
He plays similarly to Martinelli, just with a little more athleticism and physicality compared to the savvier Martinelli. Still, Barnhizer is a huge problem and is the other half of this really skilled forward tandem at Northwestern.
Jalen Leach: 15.8PPG, 2,3APG, 44.3% FG
Leach is an athletic combo guard who transferred to Northwestern from Fairfield. He’s a bigger 6’4” guard who thrives getting to the basket. His size and athletic profile have translated well to the Big Ten from the MAAC, though this will be just his second game this year against high-major caliber size. Leach has excelled for Northwestern all season, except in the Dayton game, where he finished with just seven points on 1/5 shooting.
I’m very interested to see how Leach, as a bigger guard, performs against Pierre Brooks, who will be bigger and stronger than him. On the other coin though, Leach could use his speed to find driving lanes against Brooks.
Game Preview
Both Butler and Northwestern are playing at slow paces this season. This game will largely be in the halfcourt and come down to execution. Both teams thrive at the forward positions and will need a boost from their guards or big men to feel comfortable about this one.
Offensively, Northwestern wants to beat you on the interior. They don’t shoot many threes at all, they want to get the ball inside and convert around the rim. Butler’s two-point defense against Merrimack was the best it has been all season, but how much of that was due to Merrimack putting a lid on their basket? Northwestern runs some pretty complicated screening action to get their forwards' looks on the post. Against a Butler lineup that matches, and even exceeds, their size at key positions, how does that work in this game?
On the other end, Butler has been excellent from three this season, but how does that translate in Butler’s first game outside of Hinkle Fieldhouse? Also, Northwestern is the best defense Butler has faced this season, will those looks from the outside be that easy?
Northwestern’s defense is generally very aggressive and they force you to move the ball to get the looks you want, which is something Butler has really thrived with this season. Will Butler get those same looks against the best team they’ve played this season?
Keys To the Game
Move the Ball
Give Martinelli Different Looks Defensively
Anchor Down Inside
Prediction
I’ve had a bad feel for this Bulldogs team this year, to be very candid.
And in this game, I have absolutely no read. I think this is a very 50/50 game. I picked a split for Butler coming to Arizona, and I stand by that. I think Butler should return to campus with at least one victory.
Will Northwestern find those post entries, or will Butler’s size deter that? Can Northwestern stop Butler from catching fire on the perimeter, or will the Bulldogs continue their red-hot shooting?
Butler under Coach Matta has done a great job at running opponents off the perimeter and not fouling. Which plays right into Northwestern’s hand. However, Butler’s two-point defense has been far and away the best in the Matta era, forcing opponents to shoot 42.3% from the interior. However, in Butler’s one loss, Austin Peay shot 53.3% from inside the arc and is the only team to exceed 42% against the Bulldogs.
How much of this defense has been bad shooting from opponents, and how much has been Butler anchoring down? That’s the question I expect to be answered in this game.
KenPom has this game 67-66 Northwestern. Feels about right as a one-possession game late to me.
I usually end with that video, but I'm going to use it as a mini barrier. I want to get a preview up for the next game, but in case I don't (or even if I do), here are some quick thoughts on the other potential opponents:
Mississippi State
Really dynamic guards. Josh Hubbard is one of the best guards in the SEC, as an undersized gunner. He's averaging 20.2PPG and 3.6APG this season, shooting 50% from the field, 50% from three and 90% from the free throw line. He's a tough shot taker and a tough shot maker.
They've gotten good production from forward KeShawn Murphy this season, and have wins over Utah and a road victory over SMU this season. They still have a similar defensive identity to years past, thriving at creating steals, with the fifth-highest steal percentage in the country. This Mississippi State team is legit and should be the favorite to win this tournament.
UNLV
UNLV's PG Dedan Thomas is stellar. He reclassed up as a freshman and averaged 13.6PPG when he should have been a senior in high school. In his second year of college ball, the hometown kid is averaging 17.8PPG, including two 22-point performances.
Their big men, JUCO transfer Jeremiah Cherry and Jalen Hill (coming off an injury) have been impressive this season, helping to anchor down and bring toughness to this UNLV team.
The Rebels are 4-1 on the season, with their only loss coming to a Memphis team that has looked great in Maui. This could be a key opportunity for the Rebels to prove they belong atop the Mountain West.
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