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Butler has had a very puzzling season to this point. The Bulldogs started pretty slow, including a loss to Austin Peay, but hit their stride with wins over SMU, Northwestern and Mississippi State. Reality then set in with an underwhelming performance against Eastern Illinois, which was followed by an ass-kicking at the hands of Houston.
Then, on Tuesday, Butler fell at the hands of North Dakota State, making everything much more confusing. Rather than recapping that entire game here, I want to wait for the non-conference slate to wrap up, or see if some of those same problems are shown here against a team that runs similar offenses to North Dakota State (very broadly speaking).
Butler faces a near must-win opportunity as Wisconsin comes to Indianapolis to take on Butler as a part of the second game of the Indy Classic.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
John Tonje, F: 20.8PPG, 5RPG, 47.3% FG, 40% 3PT
John Tonje started his college career at Colorado State, steadily improving during his four-year career. In Tonje’s last season with the Rams, he averaged 14.6PPG and 4.7RPG. He then transferred to Missouri, only playing in eight games and averaging under 3PPG. Tonje was an afterthought when he transferred to Wisconsin.
That all changed when he took the nation by storm and scored 41 points for Wisconsin in a win over Arizona. A couple of games later, he dropped 33 points against Pittsburgh, which gave the Badgers the coveted Greenbrier Tip-Off Mountain Division Championship.
In all seriousness, Tonje has been balling, and Butler will need to find an answer for him. One particular skill Butler has to watch for is Tonje’s ability to get to the free-throw line. Tonje is averaging 8.1 free throw attempts per game (ranks ninth in the country), and had 32 combined free throws, yes 32, in the two games mentioned above (Pittsburgh, Arizona).
Butler, under Coach Matta, has been very good at defending without fouling. Butler only averages 14.3 fouls per game this season, which ranks inside the Top 20 in the country. If Butler can defend Tonje without fouling, it will go a long way to limiting his production. If Tonje gets downhill and draws fouls, forcing Butler to go to their bench, the effects could be felt on more than just the free-throw line.
John Blackwell, G, 14.7PPG, 4.7RPG, 48.7% FG
Some expected sophomore guard John Blackwell to take a leap after a very productive freshman season, and that is exactly what he’s done. Blackwell showed flashes last season, averaging 8PPG while shooting 44% from the field, and has increased both numbers early into his sophomore campaign.
Blackwell knows how to use his bigger 6’4” frame to bully defenders as he looks to attack the basket. He knows how to use his body very well to finish around the rim, either going around or much more often than not, through defenders to put points on the board.
Blackwell is a willing perimeter shooter (shot 45.5% from three last season, and 32.4% this season on more volume), but the area of his game that most stands out to me is his slashing ability. Blackwell likely will draw Pierre Brooks on both ends, who will put up resistance for Blackwell around the rim.
Wisconsin’s Play Style
In Butler’s last game, North Dakota State gave them fits with their five out actions.
This is where I would show a clip but we don't need to relive this
Wisconsin does the same with big man Steven Crowl. Crowl, a 7’0”, is a willing three-point shooter, and has knocked down 33.6% of his career attempts, despite shooting pretty poorly this short season. All of Wisconsin's top nine rotation pieces have taken at least ten threes on the season. Wisconsin isn’t as aggressive from beyond the arc as NDST but ranks 75th in three-point rate this season.
Butler will need to find an answer for the pick-and-pop actions. The floor spacing of Wisconsin will test Butler, and seeing how the Bulldogs respond after falling victim to a similar matchup will be crucial.
Defensively, Wisconsin has done a good job of forcing tough three-point attempts. Even in their three-game losing streak, the Badgers are only allowing their opponents (Marquette, Michigan, Illinois) 28.6% from beyond the arc. Those teams aren’t as good shooting teams as Butler (40.1%, 15th in the country), but the Badgers will test Butler’s perimeter offense.
Prediction
Another note on this game is that Butler will be without big-man Augusto Cassia in this one. We haven’t yet received a timeline on his injury at the time of publishing. Cassia is Butler’s most athletic big man and would be the best at defending some of those pick-and-pops. Andre Screen and Boden Kapke bring other things to the fold, but neither has the same quickness Cassia does.
These rosters are constructed pretty similarly, with neither team having a true PG (Wisconsin runs Max Klesmit at the point mostly, with Kamari McGee backing him up), but neither team plays with a ton of defensive pressure, so I expect this game to be largely played in the halfcourt.
Butler has to defend without fouling if they’re going to complete the home upset. Wisconsin’s floor spacing will provide a test to the Bulldogs, one they will have to respond much better to than they did on Tuesday. So much of Wisconsin’s offense is dependent on getting to the free throw line (where they are the best team in the country at 83.9%), that if Jahmyl Telfort can stay in front of Tonje and make his life difficult, I think Butler can take the Badgers out of a lot of their offense.
This is a crucial bounce-back spot for both teams, entering on two and three-game losing streaks, respectively.
I think this game comes down to half-court execution. I don’t see either team pushing the ball, or really pressuring in an attempt to force turnovers. I think this ends lower scoring than expected, both on pace and efficiency (Wisconsin defends the three-point line well, and Butler defends without fouling well) and stays competitive throughout.
I haven’t had the best read on this Butler team, so I’m going to play both sides so I always come out on top (Wisconsin wins, Butler covers spread).
Wisconsin 68, Butler 66
I could very much see Butler making more plays late, and getting a great game out of Brooks and Telfort. I think Butler has more offensive punch if the game gets here, but I see Wisconsin’s spaced-out offense giving more stationary bigs in Screen and Kapke trouble, and allowing Tonje and Blackwell to get enough downhill to stay ahead. This game feels very even, but if push comes to shove, I’ll take the team that has made fewer mistakes in this young season. Hope I'm wrong.
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