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August is slowly turning into September, fall camp is ending, and school is about to start. This can only mean one thing; Football season is back. Usually I cover all things NFL, especially the Tennessee Titans, who I am very excited for this year, but this season I will dive into the chaotic realm of college football. With NIL, the transfer portal, conference realignment, and the new playoff system, the college football landscape has fully entered uncharted waters, which I plan to navigate throughout 2024.
Keep reading to see how the post-Texas and Oklahoma era of the Big 12 could shape up in 2024, with my Big 12 season preview and predictions. (Note: Ranked teams are ranked using ESPN’s post Spring Game top-25 rankings).
Title Photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images
16. Arizona State Sun Devils (2023 Record: 3-9)
The Sun Devils are in a rebuild after struggling under coach Kenny Dillingham’s first year. The second year coach has a lot to do in recruiting and using the transfer portal to replenish some of the talent on this team. Don’t expect much for ASU in their inaugural season in the Big 12.
2024 Projected Record: 2-10
15. Houston Cougars (2023 Record: 4-8)
The Cougars, like the other former AAC teams in the conference have struggled mightily upon their inception in the tougher Big 12. They simply don’t have the talent to compete in the better conference quite yet, but new coach Willie Fritz turned Tulane into a top-25 team, so he has the ability to do it with Houston. However, it will not be an overnight process, and could take a little while.
2024 Projected Record: 4-8
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (2023 Record: 3-9)
Much like their former AAC foe Houston, Cincinnati struggled in their first year in the conference. The Bearcats are more used to success, though. Former coach Luke Fickell had them in the CFP just 3 seasons ago, and had them as a staple in the top-25. It’s up to Scott Sattersfield to improve in his second season under the helm to get them back to the top of the conference, even though it's quite an uphill climb.
2024 Record Projection: 4-8
Toughest Opponents: vs West Virginia, at Iowa State, at #17 Kansas State
13. BYU Cougars (2023 Record: 5-7)
BYU fell apart down the stretch last year, going from 5-2 to 5-7 by the end of the year. Losing QB Kedon Slovis to the NFL doesn’t help their questions at that position either. This year the expectations should be lower in Provo, especially with an extremely hard middle of the season schedule. The Cougars could impress, but we shouldn’t expect it. Like many of the bottom tier teams in the conference they are stuck there for a bit while the program rebuilds.
2024 Projected Record: 5-7
Colorado coach, Deion Sanders talks to his son, star QB Shedeur Sanders on the sideline.
Photo: AP Photo / Ross D. Franklin
12. Colorado Buffaloes (2023 Record: 4-8)
We all know about Deion Sanders, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. But what most people are forgetting is that Colorado isn’t actually a good football team. They talked the talk, going 4-2 to start 2023, but then quickly realized that they couldn’t walk the walk and lost their last 6 games. Sanders and Hunter are both going to be first round picks, but chill out on the expectations for the rest of the squad. The Buffs have a long way to go for contention.
2024 Projected Record: 5-7
11. TCU Horned Frogs (2023 Record: 5-7)
After making it to the National Championship game in 20222, the Horned Frogs won just 5 games as an encore. While they should be better than last year, don’t expect them to be a conference contender once again. They could leapfrog the other middle tier teams if sophomore QB Josh Hoover can play like he did at the end of the season, and carry that over into 2024. Either way if new DC Andy Avalos can’t shore up the leaky defense, it could be another disappointing season in Fort Worth.
2024 Projected Record: 6-7 (Bowl Loss)
10. Baylor Bears (2023 Record: 3-9)
This could be a little high for the Bears, but they won the conference title just 3 seasons ago. I don’t think they are as bad as their 2023 season, but there is a lot of improvement to be made if they want to return to the top of the Big 12. An important part of the turnaround is Toledo transfer QB, Dequan Finn. The dynamic QB has to deliver early on to instill confidence in the program. Baylor will be better in 2024.
2024 Project Record: 6-7 (Bowl Loss)
9. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2023 Record: 7-6)
Am I too high on the Red Raiders? The last couple seasons they have gone 5-4 in conference play, and gone 15-11 total. It’s coach Joey McGuire’s 3rd year at the helm and he has one of the best running backs in the nation in Tahj Brooks. Can Tech finally break through the plateau, or is this just another year that they are stuck in purgatory? I believe this season will be the latter.
2024 Projected Record: 7-6 (Bowl Win)
8. UCF Knights (2023 Record: 6-7)
I am a firm believer in the Knights. They were the only Big 12 newcomer to make a bowl game, and they won 3 out of their 4 final games, including thrashing Oklahoma State by 42 points. Though they lost QB John Rhys Plumlee and explosive WR Javon Baker to the NFL, Arkansas transfer QB KJ Jefferson looks to keep the momentum rolling into 2024. If he can play up to his potential, UCF could be a sneaky contender in the conference.
2024 Projected Record: 7-6 (Bowl Win)
Iowa State QB Rocco Becht walks off the field following a game during his freshman season in 2023.
Photo: Nick Rohlman / The Gazette
7. Iowa State Cyclones (2023 Record: 7-6)
The record from last year doesn’t scream conference contender, but the Cyclones went 6-3 in conference play. They return 18 total starters, including sophomore QB Rocco Becht who won Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2023. With the experience, chemistry, and confidence from winning 6 conference games last season, Iowa State could turn some heads in ‘24.
Projected Record: 8-5 (Bowl Win)
6. West Virginia Mountaineers (2023 Record: 9-4)
West Virginia was a pleasant surprise last campaign, winning 9 games, when many projected them to finish last in the conference. Can coach Neal Brown carry the momentum into 2024? Only time will tell, but this is a big season for the Mountaineers to prove that they are contenders in the new-look conference. Their schedule is loaded with 5 top-25 matchups, but they are a great test to see if WVU is ready for a run at the Big 12 throne.
2024 Project record: 8-5 (Bowl Win)
5. #22 Kansas Jayhawks (2023 Record: 9-4)
The Jayhawks have the talent to make a run at the Big 12 crown. Only issue is QB Jalon Daniels’ health. The dynamic signal caller, who is a borderline top-10 QB in the whole nation, played in just three games last year, and the team was somehow still in the top-25 for most of the year. If Daniels can stay healthy for most of the year, him and RB Devin Neal will form one of the most explosive backfield duos in the conference. An easy schedule can also help the duo make a conference championship run.
2024 Projected Record: 9-4 (Bowl Loss)
Toughest Opponents: at West Virginia, at #17 Kansas State, vs Iowa State
4. #17 Kansas State Wildcats (2023 Record: 9-4)
All eyes are on new starting QB Avery Johnson. After losing Will Howard to the transfer portal, the former 4-star Johnson takes over the K-State offense. He showed flashes of stardom in limited time last year, but put up 249 total yards and 3 TD’s in the Pop Tart Bowl last season. If Johnson can live up to his potential, then the Wildcats could make some serious noise in the college football landscape this year.
2024 Projected Record: 10-3 (Bowl Win)
Arizona QB Noah Fifita celebrates a touchdown during his freshman year in 2023.
Photo: Mark J. Rebilas / USA TODAY Sports
3. #20 Arizona Wildcats (2023 Record: 10-3)
I am a big believer in QB Noah Fifita. He has all the tools to become a first round pick in a year or two, and he gets back his top target, Tetairoa McMillan. Despite coach Jedd Fisch leaving to take over Washington, Fifita is a top-3 QB in the conference and could carry the team to the Big 12 title in the Cats first year in the conference.
2024 Projected Record: 10-3 (Bowl Loss)
2. #9 Utah Utes (2023 Record: 8-5)
Utah is one of the favorites to win the conference, but I honestly don’t see it. While they did win the PAC-12 in 2021 and 2022, QB Cam Rising is coming off a major knee surgery and is already 25 years old. It is not a given that he will return to form in 2024. The schedule is top-heavy, and if they win early, they could build a huge winning streak to end the year. But at the end of the day, it all comes down to if Rising can return to being a top-10 signal caller in the nation.
2024 Projected Record: 11-3 (10-2 Regular Season, Big 12 Runner-Up, Bowl Win)
1. #19 Oklahoma State Cowboys (2023 Record: 10-4, Big 12 Runner-Up)
The Cowboys return 20 starters, including QB Alan Bowman and possibly the best RB in the country, Ollie Gordon. After making the Big 12 championship game last year, they are ready to reign over the weakened conference. The continuity of the team as well as its chemistry is why I think they’ll take the conference crown over the Utes (an easy schedule helps too).
2024 Projected Record: 12-2 (11-1 Regular Season, Big 12 Champions, Quarterfinal Loss)
Final Thoughts
The losses of Oklahoma and Texas hurt the Big 12’s talent, but they still have exciting teams and teams on the rise who could shock the nation. However I do believe the only way to get into the CFP as a team in the conference is to either win the Big 12 Championship Game, or to have your only loss be in that game to receive an at-large bid. The SEC and Big Ten will clog up the majority of the at-large bids, leaving the committee with tough choices regarding the Big 12 and ACC. Either way it will be fun to watch Utah and Oklahoma State contend all year for the new-look conference crown. I hope these predictions are right (or at least somewhat right), but either way, this was a fun blog to research and write. Stay on the lookout for my coverage of the other 3 major conferences (RIP PAC-12).
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