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Texas mascot, Hook 'Em celebrates with players after their win over Clemson in the first round of the CFP.
Photo: Ricardo B. Brazziel / American Statesman
The first weekend of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff didn’t disappoint. For the first time since the Playoff debuted in 2014, games were played on campus, so it wasn’t shocking that all of the home teams won in dominant fashion. As for my predictions, I went 3-1 on the weekend, which I’d say is pretty good.
We have four awesome quarterfinals games slated for New Years Eve and New Years Day. Can Arizona State and Boise State continue their Cinderella runs, Or will Penn State and Ohio State finally step up when the lights are the brightest? Will Oregon remain the only undefeated team? Check out the matchups as well as my predictions for what will be a drama filled couple days!
Can Nick Singleton and Penn State outrun Ashton Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl?
Photo: Michael Hickey / Getty Images
Keys for Penn State: The Nittany Lions destroyed SMU in a 38-10 first round beatdown, jumpstarted by two early pick-sixes. Once they got the lead, they just leaned on Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton to run the ball and suffocate the Mustangs. Penn State will look to do that again, but they also have to find a way to stop the most dominant player in the country in RB Ashton Jeanty. Will they be able to? I don’t think so.
X-Factor: QB Drew Allar. Allar has struggled in their two losses, throwing 3 total picks. If this game is close, and he has to throw the ball to win, he has to live up to his 5-star pedigree, which he hasn’t. Like his coach James Franklin, I don’t think he shows up in big moments.
Keys for Boise State: Lean on the guy that got you here. Jeanty has carried the Broncos all season long. Why would they change up their game plan? They must keep the game close to maximize the ground game. It can’t get out of hand.
X-Factor: QB Maddux Madsen. When all eyes are on the best player in the country, you tend to get overlooked, even if you’re the starting QB. Madsen is no slouch, however, he threw for 29 TDs to just 3 INTs this year. Playing clean football will be the name of the game in their playoff run.
Score Prediction: Boise State - 34, Penn State - 27
I don’t like Penn State and I don’t believe in them, as you can probably tell. James Franklin has done nothing to warrant the top-10 pedigree that people seem to give him. He has 1 win vs. AP top 5 teams at Penn State. It will stay that way on NYE. Jeanty hasn’t been contained all year, and I think he does just enough to keep Boise State alive.
Horns RB Jaydon Blue is coming off a career day. Will he continue against ASU?
Photo: John David Mercer / USA TODAY Sports
Keys for Texas: The Sun Devils were shredded on the ground in both of their losses this season. In the first round, Texas put up nearly 300 rushing yards, with Quintrevion Wiser (15 carries, 110 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jaydon Blue (14 carries, 146 yards, 2 TD’s) absolutely gashing the Tigers. Texas can win by throwing the ball or by running, but will lean on the run game early to keep the ball away from star RB Cam Skattebo.
X-Factor: The offensive line. C Jake Majors and RT Connor Williams suffered injuries during the middle of the game vs. Clemson, but the line still dominated. If both guys are healthy, it will be much easier for Texas to dominate in the trenches.
Keys for Arizona State: ASU has to stop the Longhorns' rushing attack, as well as get theirs going. Playing without top target Jordyn Tyson against the best defense in the country is a tall task, which is why the Sun Devils absolutely have to get Skattebo going early. If they have to play catchup from the get-go, it could be an ugly game.
X-Factor: QB Sam Leavitt. If the rushing game struggles early, Leavitt will have to make plays. Cade Klubnik had the best game passing by far against Texas with 336 yards and 3 touchdowns, and had to play most of the game behind. Can Leavitt do the same if put in the same situation?
Score Prediction: Texas - 31, Arizona State - 20
The Horns' rushing game is just too dominant for ASU to stop. Even if they can limit it, QB Quinn Ewers has shown that he can make plays to his deep receiving corps. The Texas defense is a top unit nationwide, and if they get a two-score lead, it could be game over for the Sun Devils. I think Skattebo struggles to get going, and Texas suffocates them early.
Star freshman WR Jeremiah Smith is coming off a monster game vs. Tennessee. Will he get revenge vs. the Ducks?
Photo: Samantha Madar / Imagn Images
Keys for Ohio State: Get Will Howard in a groove early, and let the rushing attack thrive off of that, while keeping the ball away from the Ducks' offense. Howard is a capable QB, and has possibly the most talented group of skill positions in the country around him. The Oregon defense couldn’t stop Penn State’s rushing duo of Allen and Singleton in the Big Ten title game, and will have their hands full all game with RB’s Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
X-Factor: HC Ryan Day. Day is 0-5 against Michigan and in the playoff since getting throttled by Alabama in the 2021 Title Game. He is essentially coaching for his job right now. The Buckeyes are the most talented team in the country, but Day has to out-coach Dan Lanning, one of the nation’s best.
Keys for Oregon: Play efficient, fast football like they have all year. QB Dillon Gabriel has been great in big games, and lit up Ohio State for 341 passing yards and 2 TD’s earlier in the year in their 32-31 win. WR’s Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart are one-play touchdowns waiting to happen and RB Jordan James is a big play threat as well. The offense has the firepower to win it all.
X-Factor: The rushing defense. Like I said earlier, Penn State ran all over the Ducks, and the Buckeyes have the talent to do so as well. Oregon just has to limit them, and keep their own offense in the game.
Score Prediction: Oregon - 35, Ohio State - 31
This is our only rematch of the quarterfinals and the one matchup I didn’t get correct (damn you, Tennessee). Ohio State has so much talent, but I just can’t pick against Lanning, especially since he already bested Day earlier this season. What Dan has been able to build in Eugene is special, and this is just the beginning. I think DG makes a ton of big plays, and in the end, Ryan Day just doesn’t have enough to beat the best team.
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman just got the Irish their first CFP win. Can he knock off Georgia for a second?
Photo: Matt Cashore / Imagn Images
Keys for Notre Dame: Pressure Georgia’s backup QB Gunner Stockton. When Stockton was pressured in the SEC Championship vs. Texas, he crumbled. Harassing him early and often like they did with Kurtis Roarke will be very important for the Irish.
X-Factor: QB Riley Leonard. Georgia’s defense is an imposing unit that has dominated quarterbacks all season by stopping the run and making offenses one-dimensional. Leonard must make big throws all game in a way that Georgia hasn’t seen yet this year.
Keys for Georgia: Run the ball and stop the run. Indiana allowed almost 200 yards rushing to ND as they quickly fell behind. The Dawgs have dominated opposing ground attacks all season, like with Texas twice. Expect the same in this game. On offense, Georgia must run the ball well to offset Stockton and ease him into the game. If they struggle to do so, it would put a lot of weight on his shoulders.
X-Factor: RB Trevor Ettiene. The bruising back returned from injury vs. Texas and scored 2 TDs to go along with 94 key yards. His imposing presence in the backfield and ability to take over a game will be the biggest factor in a Bulldog win or loss.
Score Prediction: Georgia - 23, Notre Dame - 21
Even with a backup QB I can't pick against Kirby Smart. He's going to have his defense ready to lead this team, and I expect a statement from Ettiene and the Bulldog offensive line. Give me the Dawgs on a last second field goal.
Final Thoughts:
The first round was great, but this is where the real teams show up. One bad half and a team’s season is over. There are no do-overs. All 8 teams have been the best 8 in the nation all season (whether you like that or not), and they all have have a legitimate shot to win it all. While it would be awesome to have these games played on campus as well, we still get to see 4 amazing matchups that can go either way. I hope you enjoyed this, and have fun watching the action-packed quarterfinals round of the first ever 12-team CFP!
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