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Steve Sarkisian (Texas), and Kirby Smart (Georgia), meet pregame on Oct. 19th. Who will win their SEC Championship game?
Photo: Rodolfo Gonzalez / AP
Rivalry week has come and gone, and conference championship games have been set. In my opinion, 5 games this weekend are crucial for seeding in the new 12-team College Football Playoff. Potential losers aren’t guaranteed a spot, and many teams not playing this weekend need a few lucky breaks to sneak into the field of 12.
Here are my breakdowns for the 5 most important games this week.
Boise State's superstar running back, Ashton Jeanty, celebrates.
Photo: Loren Orr / Getty Images
All kickoff times in EST.
Mountain West: Friday December 6th, 8pm
My Preseason Prediction: N/A
Previous Meeting: #17 Boise State - 29, UNLV - 24
The MWC game only matters because of Boise State. If they win, they’ll most likely get a bye, as they have just one loss and are one of the 4-highest ranked conference champions. A Boise State loss would make the playoff picture interesting, but the presence of Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty should bode well for the Broncos. They’ve rode their bell cow back all year, expect them to do that once again. If he takes over the game, UNLV's already slim chances get slimmer.
Score Prediction: Boise State - 31, UNLV - 23
Boise State X-Factor: QB Maddux Madsen. The signal caller must be able to make plays to offset Jeanty’s running. All he has to do is play smart and not turn the ball over, and Boise State is in the playoff.
UNLV X-Factor: QB Hajj-Malik Williams. The dual-threat QB is a key piece of the Rebel rushing attack. If he can make big plays on the ground, they could play spoiler to the Broncos dream season.
Iowa State QB Rocco Becht walks off the field following a game during his freshman season in 2023.
Photo: Nick Rohlman / The Gazette
Big 12: Saturday December 7th, Noon
Previous Meeting: N/A
I was dead wrong about the Big 12 this year. You can basically just flip my predictions and get what actually happened. I picked ASU to finish last, and now they are one of the hottest teams in the nation, taking on a Cyclones team that I labeled a “dark-horse” in the conference. Not a good look for me, but let’s get into the matchup.
As the Sun Devils turned up their play, so did RB Cam Skattebo. The star back has 19 total touchdowns this season, and will be a key player to watch in this game. If he can take over the game while QB Sam Leavitt makes plays to keep them in control, the Sun Devils will be hard to stop. On the other side, Iowa State has a more passing based attack with QB Rocco Becht running the show. If Becht can limit turnovers and get into a good rhythm early, the Cyclones will earn a first round bye.
This one is going to be an ugly shootout, where it comes down to which defense can make more plays. My gut says to follow the team that is hotter coming into the matchup, and that’s what I’ll do.
Score Prediction: Arizona State - 41, Iowa State - 33
Arizona State X-Factor: QB Sam Leavitt. He has to play a clean game to even out the offense. If he struggles early, it'll be harder to run Iowa State out of town with Skattebo.
Iowa State X-Factor: RB Carson Hansen. While the Cyclones use a running back committee, Hansen has 11 touchdowns. It will be a huge boost to Becht if Hansen can get going early.
Bulldogs QB Carson Beck stands tall in the pocket during Georgia's matchup with Texas earlier this year.
Photo: David Buono / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
SEC: Saturday December 7th, 4pm
The only prediction that I got fully correct during preseason is the biggest game of the weekend. Texas is trying to be the first team to win the SEC in their first season in the conference, while Georgia is trying to take back the title after their loss to Alabama last year. In their first meeting in Austin this year, the Georgia defensive line manhandled the Texas offensive line for 7 sacks. Since then, the Horns up front have decimated every opponent just to get their chance again. The Texas defense is the best in the country and held the Dawgs offense in check until the turnovers were too much.
The key to the game is in the trenches. If the Georgia D-Line can’t get the same pressure, Texas backs Quintrevion Wiser and Jaydon Blue will feast. Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers looked great in the first half vs. Texas A&M, and though he struggled in the second half, he was cool, calm, and collected throughout. If he can make a couple back-breaking plays like he did last year vs. Alabama, Texas will win this game. The Georgia offense has been too inconsistent this season, especially their receivers with drops. If they struggle with this, QB Carson Beck has no chance to win the game against the top Texas defense.
Score Prediction: Texas - 24, Georgia - 16
Texas X-Factor: WR Isaiah Bond. Bond has been dealing with an ankle injury for most of the year. His timing with Ewers looked off all game vs. A&M. He absolutely has to fix that this game, as with his speed he could break the Dawgs defense, similar to what he did last year when at Bama. Giving Ewers a healthy deep threat is something that would help him greatly (watch the Alabama game from last year).
Georgia X-Factor: QB Carson Beck. Beck made no winning plays against the Longhorns last time out, throwing 3 INT’s that could have been costly. I can bet you that the Texas offense won’t be a dumpster fire for this second matchup. Beck must play like he did vs. Tennessee or Georgia’s offense will get destroyed.
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik prepares to pass against North Carolina during a game last season.
Photo: Jacob Kupferman / AP Photo
ACC: Saturday December 7th, 8pm
Previous Meeting: N/A
I got half of this matchup correct! This is a very interesting game, as this is SMU’s first season in the conference, and this game a must-win for Clemson to get into the playoff. After Miami’s choke job vs. Syracuse, the Tigers got in. They have been inconsistent all season long, but the defense has looked good, holding a dynamic South Carolina offense to 17 points last week. They need to do that again against the Mustangs, who have looked like a completely different team since they benched QB Preston Stone for Kevin Jennings. Jennings provides a dual-threat spark and an arm with big play ability to contrast with RB Brashard Smith’s dynamic scoring. The Tigers will have their hands full.
Flipping sides, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik has made plays to win all year, especially with his legs. The only points scored last week for Clemson were his two rushing scores. Along with him, RB Phil Mafah is a beast on the ground. The ground game will open up the air attack for Klubnik, it’s just a matter of if they can get enough points.
Score Prediction: SMU - 23, Clemson - 20
Clemson X-Factor: RB Phil Mafah. He had just 66 yards rushing in the loss to South Carolina last week. In all of Clemson’s commanding wins, Mafah has at least 70 rushing yards. If he can start in a good rhythm and take the pressure off Cade, Clemson has a good chance to win this game.
SMU X-Factor: QB Kevin Jennings. The Mustang offense starts and ends with their QB, and Jennings has been amazing since taking over. He must start efficiently for SMU to bury the Tigers.
Athletic Penn State tight end, Tyler Warren goes airborne to avoid a defender.
Photo: Barry Reeger / AP
Big Ten: Saturday December 7th, 8pm
Previous Meeting: N/A
I got one team right in the matchup, and I could have gotten it all if Ryan Day’s Buckeyes didn’t choke for a fourth year in a row in The Game. For this specific game however, it won’t be close. Penn State coach James Franklin is allergic to winning a game with any sort of pressure. He just can’t do it. Oregon is by far the superior team, from offense to defense, and to their coach, Dan Lanning. Give me the Ducks by around a couple dozen.
Score Prediction: Oregon - 35, Penn State 13
Oregon X-Factor: QB Dillon Gabriel. The experienced signal caller has struggled the past three games. He has to start hot if the Ducks want to pull away fast and early, and I think DG will do just that come Saturday.
Penn State X-Factor: TE Tyler Warren. Warren has done it all for a Penn State receiving corps that is low on top end talent for QB Drew Allar to throw to. The number one tight end in the country will have to have a herculean effort to win.
CFP Seeding After Conference Championships:
1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten Champ)
2. Texas (12-1, SEC Champ)
3. SMU (12-1, ACC Champ)
4. Boise State (12-1, MWC, G5 Representative)
5. Notre Dame (11-1, Independent At-Large)
6. Tennessee (10-2, SEC At-Large)
7. Ohio State (10-2, Big Ten At-Large)
8. Indiana (11-1, Big Ten At-Large)
9. Georgia (10-3, SEC At-Large)
10. Penn State (11-2, Big Ten At-Large)
11. Arizona State (12-1, Big 12 Champ)
12. Alabama (9-3, SEC At-Large)
CFP First Round Bracket:
I think this is a very realistic seeding and bracket. I put Alabama (9-3) over Miami (10-2), since Alabama has 3 ranked wins to Miami’s 0. Bama also got the nod over Ole Miss as the Rebs only have 1 ranked win. Finally, Alabama makes it over South Carolina because they beat the Gamecocks in Week 7. I hope you enjoyed it. It's going to be an exciting weekend for college football fans, and hopefully I get these predictions correct, unlike most of my preseason ones.
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