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Oregon head coach, Dan Lanning, celebrating their Big Ten title win. The Ducks are 13-0 and the top seed in the CFP.
Photo: AJ Mast / AP Photo
The conference championships have been decided, the CFP committee has selected the playoff. Here is my two part blog, recapping a drama-filled weekend, and previewing the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Buckle up folks, it’s going to be a wild ride from here to Monday, January 20th in Atlanta.
Mountain West: Friday December 6th, 8pm
My Prediction: Boise State - 31, UNLV - 23
Actual Result: Boise State - 21, UNLV - 7
X-Factors to Watch: QB Maddux Madsen (Boise). The signal caller must be able to make plays to offset Jeanty’s running. All he has to do is play smart and not turn the ball over.
QB Hajj-Malik Williams (UNLV). The dual threat QB is a key piece of the Rebel rushing attack. If he can make big plays on the ground, they could play spoiler to the Broncos dream season.
All eyes were on Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty and he delivered a 209 yard, 1 TD performance to clinch a bid in the playoff. Not much to say here, as the Broncos jumped out to a 21-0 lead that UNLV couldn’t catch up to. As for the X-Factors, Madsen did his job, with 2 total touchdowns, and 0 turnovers. However, Williams did not. The dual threat QB threw a pick and had just a 2.7 yards-per-carry average as the Rebels offense sputtered. I can’t wait to see Boise State in the CFP.
Big 12: Saturday December 7th, Noon
My Prediction: Arizona State - 41, Iowa State - 33
Actual Result: Arizona State - 45, Iowa State - 19
X-Factors to Watch: QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State). He has to play a clean game to even out the offense. If he struggles early, it '’’ll be harder to run Iowa State out of town with Skattebo.
RB Carson Hansen (Iowa State). While the Cyclones use a running back committee, Hansen has 11 touchdowns. It will be a huge boost to Becht if Hansen can get going early.
This was a massacre. ASU RB Cam Skattebo had a ridiculous day, with just 16 carries for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Sun Devils built a huge lead early and buried the Cyclones before you could even blink. Like the Boise State-UNLV game, I don’t have anything else to say, aside from our X-Factors. Leavitt had a nice game, and made some big throws early on and totaled 4 touchdowns. On the other hand, Hansen couldn’t get going early, and since Iowa State was down big early, he didn’t have a big role. It will be interesting to see the feisty Arizona State team in the playoff, and how they fare against more well known programs, if given the chance.
SEC: Saturday December 7th, 4pm
My Prediction: Texas - 24, Georgia - 16
Actual Result: Georgia - 22, Texas - 19 (OT)
X-Factors to Watch: WR Isaiah Bond (Texas). Bond has been dealing with an ankle injury for most of the year. His timing with Ewers looked off all game vs. A&M. He absolutely has to fix that this game, as with his speed he could break the Dawgs defense, similar to what he did last year when at Bama. Giving Ewers a healthy deep threat is something that would help him greatly.
QB Carson Beck (Georgia). Beck made no winning plays against the Longhorns last time out, throwing 3 INT’s that could have been costly. I can bet you that the Texas offense won’t be a dumpster fire for this second matchup. Beck must play like he did vs. Tennessee or Georgia’s offense will get destroyed.
This was the marquee matchup of the weekend and it didn’t disappoint. It was filled with drama, tension, and questionable officiating. What it really came down to though was Texas kicker, Bert Auburn missing 2 key field goals. Horns QB Quinn Ewers battled through adversity and drove Texas down the field to get it into OT. Then Dawgs backup signal caller, Gunner Stockton took a huge hit at the Longhorns 4-yard-line. Since his helmet came off, Beck, who could barely move his right arm due to his elbow injury, handed the ball off to Trevor Ettinene to win the game. The games X-Factors were largely underwhelming. Bond showed poor effort, causing a first drive INT and had just one catch. The former Alabama hero in this same game a year ago didn’t have the same impact this time around. Beck was absolutely lost against the Texas defense, with just 56 yards and a fumble at the half. I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if he didn’t get hurt. Both teams will make the playoff, and we could possibly see a third matchup between them (I hope so because I went out on a limb and predicted that in August).
ACC: Saturday December 7th, 8pm
My Prediction: SMU - 23, Clemson - 20
Actual Result: Clemson - 34, SMU - 31
X-Factors to Watch: RB Phil Mafah (Clemson). He had just 66 yards rushing in the loss to South Carolina last week. In all of Clemson’s commanding wins, Mafah has at least 70 rushing yards. If he can start in a good rhythm and take the pressure off Cade, Clemson has a good chance to win this game.
QB Kevin Jennings (SMU). The Mustang offense starts and ends with their QB, and Jennings has been amazing since taking over. He must start efficiently for SMU to bury the Tigers.
The Tigers were up 24-7 at the half and 31-14 going into the 4th quarter before the Mustangs roared back to tie it at 31 with just 16 seconds left. However, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik led the offense into field goal range for kicker Nolan Hauser to boot a 56-yarder to finally get Dabo Swinney back into the CFP. This game came down to turnovers, as SMU had more yards, first downs, and the time of possession was relatively even, but the Stangs had 2 turnovers, which led to 7 points for the Tigers. Clemson’s X-Factor, Mafah had a horrible game with just 30 total yards, but nevertheless, they got the job done. As for Jennings, on paper he had a great game, with 339 total yards and 4 total touchdowns, but the early fumble and interception he threw set the tone for the game. Seeing Clemson get a bye is odd, as they have 3 losses, but they will get to play a good team in the quarterfinals, so we’ll get to see if the ACC Champs can hang with an SEC or Big Ten school.
Big Ten: Saturday December 7th, 8pm
My Prediction: Oregon - 35, Penn State 13
Actual Result: Oregon - 45, Penn State - 37
X-Factors to Watch: QB Dillon Gabriel (Oregon). The experienced signal caller has struggled the past three games. He has to start hot if the Ducks want to pull away fast and early, and I think DG will do just that come Saturday.
TE Tyler Warren (Penn State). Warren has done it all for a Penn State receiving corps that is low on top end talent for QB Drew Allar to throw to. The number one tight end in the country will have to have a herculean effort to win.
I do apologize to Penn State, I didn’t think this game would be close at all, but they still lost and James Franklin fell to 1-14 vs. AP top-5 teams. See why I can’t take this team seriously. I will be picking against them down below in my CFP preview. The X-Factors both had big contributions for their teams. DG threw for 4 touchdowns and didn’t turn the ball over, guiding the high-powered Ducks offense to an early lead that they never gave up while Warren led the Nittany Lions in receiving yards with 84. I really want to see both of these teams go up against SEC teams in the playoff.
As for my predictions, I went 3-2 on the weekend, which I’d say is pretty good. While my preseason picks weren’t great, I got the SEC matchup correct, so that’s pretty good. Keep reading below for a College Football Playoff preview complete with the matchups and predictions for what will be a hectic first go at the 12 team bracket (Note: Parentheses is where the committee ranks in the top 25. Example: Clemson is the #12 seed, but the committee sees them as the 16th best team in the country).
1. (1) Oregon (13-0, Big Ten Champ)
2. (2) Georgia (11-2, SEC Champ)
3. (9) Boise State (12-1, MWC Champ, G5 Representative)
4. (12) Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 Champ)
5. (3) Texas (11-2, SEC Runner-Up)
6. (4) Penn State (11-2, Big Ten Runner-Up)
7. (5) Notre Dame (11-1, Independent At-Large)
8. (6) Ohio State (10-2, Big Ten At-Large)
9. (7) Tennessee (10-2, SEC At-Large)
10. (8) Indiana (11-1, Big Ten At-Large)
11. (10) SMU (11-2, ACC Runner-Up)
12. (16) Clemson (10-3, ACC Champ)
The committee 100% got this right in my eyes. They rewarded SMU for playing in their conference championship game, instead of rewarding Alabama for sitting on the couch. Good on you committee.
Austin native, and Clemson QB Cade Klubnik will travel back home to take on Texas in the first round of the CFP.
Photo: Jacob Kupferman / AP Photo
Texas, the only team to make the CFP last year as well as this year, have one of the easier first round matchups, welcoming the Tigers to Austin. Clemson is 2-3 against teams with a .500 or better win percentage. The Longhorns defense is a top unit in the whole country. The offense showed signs of life against Georgia, and Quinn Ewers looked more healthy and comfortable. If the defense shows up and the offense stops shooting themselves in the foot, this game won’t be close.
Score Prediction: Texas - 30, Clemson - 10 (Texas advances to Quarterfinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Clemson QB, Cade Klubnik. Gunner Stockton’s dual threat ability ignited the dead Georgia offense in the SEC Championship game. Klubnik needs to make plays with his legs if Clemson wants to advance.
Buckeyes QB Will Howard (18), celebrates with RB Quinshon Judkins. Will the duo celebrate after the first round of the CFP?
Photo: Joe Maiorana / USA TODAY Sports
This matchup is going to be my game of the week. Tennessee has a stifling defense while Ohio State has one of the best and deepest receiver corps. This game will come down to the Buckeyes digging deep and putting that horrible Michigan loss behind them. Coach Ryan Day needs a deep playoff run to save his. I don’t think they get the job done.
Score Prediction: Tennessee - 24, Ohio State 21 (Tennessee advances to Quarterfinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Ohio State QB, Will Howard. Can the veteran QB bounce back after the ugly Michigan game? He’s going to have to, as the Vols defense has the talent to get him booed on his home turf right after the first drive.
Can Nittany Lions signal caller make plays to advance to the Quraterfinals?
Photo: Matthew O'Haren / USA TODAY Sports
I am a Penn State hater. Until James Franklin beats a top-5 team I will think that he is a joke. The Nittany Lions got very lucky in a reeling SMU team that just had a gut wrenching loss. This game will be high scoring and close, but I do sadly have to go with Penn State. The weather of PA against a Texas team is just too hard to overcome.
Score Prediction: Penn State - 31, SMU - 28 (Penn State advances to Quarterfinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Penn State QB, Drew Allar. In Penn State’s two losses he has 3 total INT’s. He absolutely has to clean up his game, even though State relies on their run game. In the big moments, Allar has to play sound, efficient quarterback.
Will experienced Notre Dame QB Riely Leonard be the difference maker in the battle for Indiana?
Photo: Sam Craft / AP
Indiana played nobody aside from Ohio State this year. Ohio State wiped the floor with them. Expect Notre Dame to do the same. I think this game will not be close at all.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame - 28, Indiana - 10 (Notre Dame advances to Quarterfinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Notre Dame QB, Riley Leonard. The graduate signal caller has played great as of late. His ability to command the Irish offense with efficiency is key for this in-state battle. Look for him to make big plays with his legs if he can.
Quarterfinals: Peach, Rose, Fiesta, and Sugar Bowls
Defensive end, Trey Moore has had a big year for the Longhorns. Can he continue in a deep playoff run?
Photo: Will Gallagher / Inside Texas
The key to this game will be ASU RB Cam Skattebo. He has been a man on a mission, carrying the Sun Devils and elevating his game in the biggest moments. No moment would be bigger than this. If Texas shuts him down, which I think they will, Arizona State’s dream season will end.
Score Prediction: Texas - 27, Arizona State - 17 (Texas advances to Semifinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Texas Defensive Line. The Horns line have dominated most teams this season. If they set the tone year and limit Skattebo, the Devil's offense becomes very one-dimensional.
If the Vols want to make a playoff run, star RB Dylan Sampson will be a key piece of the run.
Photo: Angelina Alcantar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Tennessee has a great defense, but this Oregon offense is a top-tier unit. The Vols will have their hands full all night long with speedy WR’s Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart. Ducks QB Dillon Gabriel’s experience vs. Tennessee QB’s Nico Iamaleava’s inexperience could be the difference.
Score Prediction: Oregon - 31, Tennessee - 23 (Oregon advances to Semifinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Tennessee RB, Dylan Sampson. He has been the focal point of their offense ever since SEC play started. He’s going to have to have a big day to help Nico ease into the tough environment.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty has led this team all year. He looks to make an improbable run to the title game.
Photo: Loren Orr / Getty Images
This is what I’ve wanted for a long time. Ashton Jeany getting another crack at a Power 4 team. In the Broncos 3 point loss to Oregon early in the year, he had 192 rushing yards and a whopping 3 touchdowns. Penn State struggled mightily to try and stop Oregon’s ground game in the Big Ten Title, so I think Jeanty will have a field day.
Score Prediction: Boise State - 34, Penn State - 30 (Boise State advances to Semifinals)
X-Factor for the Game: Boise State RB, Ashton Jeanty. This is his opportunity to show the world that he can dominate great teams on a national stage.
Georgia's backup QB Gunner Stockton will have to play smart football if he is called upon to lead the Dawgs.
Photo: Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
I want to pick Notre Dame, as they have had a great year and proved their doubters wrong, playing very good football throughout the season. However, even with Georgia’s QB situation in the air I got to go with the Dawgs. The biggest issue with that is as bad as Beck has been, his stability and leadership, as well as experience is valuable in big games like this. The mystifying ability of a backup QB is no longer in the Bulldogs favor. There is tape on Stockton, and if he is the starter, he could struggle, as he’s not just providing an in-game spark. Kirby Smart is just such a great coach at getting his guys to rally after tough situations, and he’s done it all year. Give me Georgia in a nail biter.
Score Prediction: Georgia - 20, Notre Dame - 16 (Georgia advances to Semifinals)
X-Factors for the Game: Georgia’s QB. Doesn’t matter if Beck or Stockton plays (as of now, it will most likely be Stockton), they have to limit turnovers. Beck has struggled with that this season and Stockton threw a disgusting pick in the SEC Championship that could have ruined the Bulldogs season. That cannot happen in a game like this.
Semifinals: Orange Bowl (January 9th), Cotton Bowl (January 10th)
Horns QB, Quinn Ewers has big game experience. Can he get Texas over the hump?
Photo: John David Mercer / USA TODAY Sports
If this happens, oh boy, it could be the best matchup of the whole playoff. The explosive and speedy Ducks offense vs. the dominant Longhorns defense would be a matchup for the ages. Seeing WR’s Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart go against Texas’ secondary of Jahdae Barron (Thorpe Award winner), Michael Taaffe, and Andrew Mukuba has me excited just writing about it. However, the key matchup of the game is the Texas run game vs. the Oregon defense. In the Big Ten Championship, Penn State gauged Oregon for a ridiculous 297 rushing yards. If that happens again, Horns RB’s Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, as well as backup QB Arch Manning could match Penn State’s performance.
Score Prediction: Texas - 26, Oregon - 21 (Texas advances to the National Championship)
X-Factor for the Game: Texas QB Quinn Ewers. Drew Allar three two costly picks which made the Nittany Lions blow the stellar game on the ground. Ewers needs to take care of the ball and connect on the shot plays that just haven’t really been there for him this year. He did look much better and more comfortable in the pocket vs. Georgia, still nursing his ankle injury. If he can get from 75% health to around 85%, he could throw Texas into the natty.
Bulldogs edge rusher Mykel Williams has been a beast this year. In this predicted game he would need to help stop Jeanty.
Photo: Brett Davis / Imagn Images
This was my #12 vs. #5 game in my preseason predictions, and while this game won’t be the blowout I thought it was, and as great as Ashton Jeanty is, the Broncos just won’t beat the Bulldogs. It was a great Cinderella run for Boise State, but I just don’t see a world where they pull off two big upsets in a row, even with the Georgia QB situation being as muddy as it is. Give me Georgia by a couple tuddies.
Score Prediction: Georgia - 23, Boise - 14 (Georgia advances to the National Championship)
X-Factors for the Game: The Georgia D-Line. They had dominant games against Texas both times out, just flat out bullying the Horns offensive line. They must do the same to limit Jeanty and put the game in the hands of Madsen. If they can do that early, it’ll take the pressure off either Beck or Stockton.
National Championship: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia (January 20th):
Texas would benefit greatly if stalwart left tackle, Kelvin Banks Jr. was fully healthy for the playoff.
Photo: Joe Robbins / Getty Images
I called this matchup in August. I called their SEC Championship meetup as well (even though I got the result wrong). I’m going to stick with that original prediction. I believe that these are the two best teams in college football (sorry Oregon, you’re a close third), and Texas has done a great job in their first season in the SEC. Why not have the same game as the Conference Title, in the same building as well. Both teams have battled through adversity, had QB controversy, and have two of the best minds in the country as their coaches. I think this one comes down to defensive play. No matter who starts under center for the Bulldogs, I have Texas in this. A second look at Gunner Stockton won’t fare well for the Dawgs, and Texas have had Beck in hell in both meetings. A healthier and more confident Quinn Ewers will make the plays in this rare third meeting. Give me the Longhorns in a nail-biting classic.
Score Prediction: Texas - 23, Georgia - 19
X-Factors for the Game: The Texas O-Line. They’ve given up a whopping 13 sacks in two games vs. Georgia. A healthy LT Kelvin Banks Jr. would be a huge win for them (the Outland and Lombardi winner didn’t play in the SEC Championship), but either way the boys up front need to get the run game going. Give them, as well as Sark, a third crack at the Bulldogs, and I think they get the job done.
I think I did a solid job on Championship Saturday, and I have a good feeling about my CFP predictions as well. I hope Texas and Georgia get to match up again, not just because I’m a Longhorns fan, but because that’d be an awesome prediction to get right in my first year covering college football. I’m a fan of the committee’s selections, but I do hope that they get rid of the conference winners getting an automatic bye. I think that the conference winners should get an automatic bid, not a bye, and then re-seed the top 12, because there’s no way that ASU should get a bye over Texas or Penn State. That is my only criticism of the new system, and I’m sure it’ll get improved in the future. All I know is that this is going to be one heck of a ride, and thank you for joining me for it!
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