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From nail-biting classics to straight up bloodbaths, the second round of the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff did not disappoint. I unfortunately went 1-3 for the round in terms of picks, after going 3-1 in Round 1. All 4 top seeds lost their quarterfinal matchup, with 3 of them getting blown out of the water. Today, I'll break down the four games, as well as preview and predict the two semifinal matchups. (Note: I've decided to add a "Play of the Game" to each quarterfinal matchup. This isn't the best play, but the momentum-shifter, or icing on the cake play, to seal each win).
I will give James Franklin credit. He got his guys ready, and they delivered in a closer game than the score indicated. The Nittany Lions held Ashton Jeanty to just 104 yards (that was his season low), and terrorized Maddux Madsen for 3 INT’s. Boise State missed 2 field goals, which would have flipped the script of the game before Nick Singleton iced it on a 58 yard touchdown run.
Am I still skeptical of Penn State? Yes, of course. They played a reeling SMU team and then a Group of 5 team. The competition wasn’t the best, but they got the job done, and I won’t bash them for that. They'll take on Notre Dame in an intriguing Orange Bowl. I can’t wait to see if James Franklin can really win on an even bigger stage, or if he will fall once again to another great team.
Play of the Game:
ASU came in talking trash, with RB Cam Skattebo saying that there's nobody out there that can stop him, and QB Sam Leavitt proclaiming that he would be the better QB. One guy was right, the other was wrong. After being bottled up all game, Skattebo led a vicious comeback from down 24-8 early in the 4th quarter. He ended the game with 143 yards rushing, 99 yards receiving, 2 rushing scores (including their lone OT touchdown), as well as a touchdown pass to jumpstart the comeback. Leavitt, on the other hand, was harassed all game, with a pitiful 222 yards, no touchdowns, a 52% competition percentage and the game losing pick.
On the other hand, Texas QB Quinn Ewers showed up with 322 passing yards, 3 passing TD’s (2 in overtime, with one being on a 4th and 13 for the game), as well as another rushing touchdown. As a Texas fan, this was way too close for comfort, but winning teams comeback from adversity, and that’s what Ewers and WR Matthew Golden (149 receiving yards, 1 TD) did. To the people complaining about the questionable targeting call, and saying that ASU lost because of it: No, they didn't. All the Sun Devils had to do was stop Texas on the 4th and 13 in the first OT. Guess what? They didn’t. They failed to stop Ewers and Golden all day, and then flipped the field and allowed 8 points to go down. Sure the call was probably a bad one, but ASU had all the momentum and failed to capitalize.
As the Horns move forward, Coach Sark has to get the guys to play more consistently, otherwise the exciting Cotton Bowl vs. a great Ohio State team could get very ugly very quickly. This week's semifinal is Ewers’ chance to beat his former team, so I’m excited to see how the former Buckeye plays against a very stout Ohio State defense.
Play of the Game:
This game was a massacre, with Ohio State going up as much as 34 in the first half. Oregon’s high powered offense struggled early and their defense was blown out of the water from the start by superstar freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith. Once they were down 24-0 (let alone 34-0), and without WR1 Tez Johnson and starting RB Jordan James, it was over (but hey, their jerseys were awesome).
I love what Dan Lanning did for the Ducks in their first year in the Big Ten, going undefended in the regular season and winning the conference title, including beating these very Buckeyes, but Ryan Day just has the most talented roster in the nation. Maybe Oregon would have won a rubber match, but Day got his players ready from the get go. I overlooked Ohio State coming off of their loss to Michigan, and they have proved me wrong twice. Their game vs. Texas’ mighty defense will be a fun one to watch.
Play of the Game:
Wow. I did not expect this. A Kirby Smart team with 2+ weeks to prepare came out flat, mistake-prone and just did not look ready in the slightest. Credit to Marcus Freeman and the Irish for having a plan of attack and sticking with it. Even though RB’s Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love were contained, QB Riley Leonard (who threw for just 90 yards) had 14 carries for 80 yards on the ground. Notre Dame was dominant on defense, stopping the run early and forcing backup QB Gunner Stockton to throw in obvious passing 3rd downs. Georgia was sloppy, with 3 fumbles, drops on offense, and a kickoff that resulted in a touchdown for Notre Dame. I don’t have much else to say, aside from congratulating ND for a dominant team performance. They’ll take on Penn State in the Orange Bowl.
Play of the Game:
Semifinal Matchups: Orange and Cotton Bowls
This Bowl is just weird to me. We’ve got Penn State and James Franklin’s horrible track record, but then Notre Dame, who came into the playoff with an ugly 0-2 record in past CFP games.
Notre Dame’s Outlook: Just run the ball, and stop the run. This is what the Irish have done so far in their playoff run, and they’ve done a great job at it. Stopping the duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen is hard, but Notre Dame just did it with Georgia’s Trevor Ettiene and Nate Fraizer. If they can force Drew Allar to beat them, I like their chances. Offensively, Riley Leonard is the biggest piece. If he can take control like he did vs. the Bulldogs, the Irish will finally play for a National Championship.
Penn State’s Outlook: Honestly, it’s the same, but with a little wrinkle. The offense runs through the dynamic Singleton-Allen duo, and then the Allar to TE Tyler Warren show can also be great under the right circumstances. Defensively, it gets harder. Notre Dame also relies on their running backs, but Leonard is dangerous with his legs, like he showed the world vs. Georgia. The key to this game is how Penn State can contain him.
Game Prediction: In a game of two teams with similar style-of-play, I have to go with the team that is better coached and has beaten better teams, which is Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman gives me a lot more confidence than Franklin, and the turnaround that Freeman has had the past couple years on the job is amazing. Beating Georgia, especially in a game down in the deep south, has got me big on the Irish. There’s a reason why Franklin is 1-14 vs. top 5 teams. Give me Notre Dame to advance to the finals.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame - 20, Penn State - 16
This game could come down to the wire, or it could be over by the 2nd quarter.
Ohio State’s Outlook: Ohio State has outscored teams 35-0 in the first quarter in their two CFP games. They harassed Dillon Gabriel for 8 sacks in the Rose Bowl, and held Oregon to -23 rushing yards. On top of that, QB Will Howard has been red hot and is playing with the moxie and confidence that they’ve needed for a while at quarterback. The Buckeyes offense is led by two NFL-ready running backs in Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson who feasted vs. the Ducks. They have possibly the deepest and most talented receiving corps led by the aforementioned Smith, soon to be first round pick Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate.
On paper, they have the best chance to win it all, especially with the momentum that they’ve gained. However, they have been inconsistent at times. Which Buckeye team will show up; The slow and sloppy team that barely beat Nebraska and Penn State, and that lost a 4th straight game to the team up north, or the team that just utterly dominated the best team in the country?
Texas’ Outlook: Texas has one of the best defense’s in the country, led by Freshman of the Year, edge rusher Collin Simmons and Thorpe Award winning CB, Jahdae Barron. They have suffocated QB’s all season long, and played great against the run, aside from the Georgia games and the Peach Bowl. The Horns have to rely on Barron and the secondary to contain Ohio State’s receivers, and the defensive line to shutdown the run game early, like Michigan did. If they can do that, the offense will have a chance to take control. Offensively, Texas has to run the ball early and effectively.
Arizona State shut down the ground game, which made the offense very one-dimensional for most of the contest. If they can run the ball well early, it will open up the playbook for Sark to take shots with Texas’ deep receiving group. One issue for the Longhorns is seeing who can step up aside from Matthew Golden. Isaiah Bond has not been the same since his multiple ankle injuries, and didn’t get any looks in the Peach Bowl. If healthy, he is the fastest player on the field and is a walking one-play touchdown. Other than him, sophomore Deandre Moore and freshman Ryan Wingo have shown flashes of stardom. Which player can show up in a huge semifinal?
Game Prediction: I love Texas, and I think they can win it all, but man oh man Ohio State is just raging hot. They are playing with a level of confidence and conviction after the Michigan loss, and are making no mistakes. Smith has been all over two great defenses in Tennessee and Oregon, while the Buckeye defense has shut down two dominant offenses. Texas has the talent to knock them off, but are just too hot and cold. In a one game season teams have to start fast and keep their foot on the gas, which Texas has struggled to do. Give me Ohio State to move on to the natty.
Score Prediction: Ohio State - 38, Texas - 28
Final Thoughts:
Both semifinal games should be great games to watch, with compelling headlines and drama to back it all up. The 12-team playoff couldn’t have had a better start to it with all the blowouts, scoring, and the drama of the Peach Bowl. Hopefully the Orange and Cotton Bowls have closer games, but either way I cannot wait to see what happens. This journey is not over yet, buckle up, because this Thursday and Friday could get wild!
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