The Creighton Bluejays handled the Louisville Cardinals in the Round of 64, winning 89-75, in a game that never really was all that close after Creighton expanded the lead late in the first half. Jamiya Neal was the shining star in that one, scoring 29 points on 11-16 shooting, adding 12 rebounds as well. Louisville seemed to want to limit Ryan Kalkbrenner, but in doing so allowed quality looks to Neal, Steven Ashworth, and Jackson McAndrew as a result.
Now, the Jays have their toughest test yet as they face the number one overall-seeded Auburn Tigers. Auburn won the SEC this season, which has been touted by some national media members as the greatest conference season in college basketball history. While certainly deserving of the top seed, Auburn has lost three of its past five games and have not been playing their best basketball recently. The Tigers own the second-best offense in the country, per KenPom, and are comfortable playing at all paces. They've won conference games in the low-50s and the high-90's, neither pace seeming to phase them too much.
The top-billed story in this matchup is Ryan Kalkbrenner taking on Johni Broome of Auburn, two of the best big men in the country. Kalkbrenner recently was added as a finalist for both the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year, as well as the Kareem Abdul Jabbar award, celebrating the nation's best center. Broome, on the other side, is one of the two players in contention for National Player of the Year, along with Cooper Flagg.
I do think some matchup elements favor the underdog Bluejays. One of Auburn's true calling cards is the fact that they seldom turn the ball over. The SEC is full of physical, havoc-creating defenses, but Auburn turns it over at the seventh-lowest rate in the country. Fortunately for Creighton, they don't really rely on turning teams over to succeed. The Jays force fewer turnovers than nearly any team in the country. So, one of Auburn's true strengths isn't really something they'd have to worry about against Creighton, somewhat negating its importance.
Another potential positive for Creighton is the ability to keep Ryan Kalkbrenner in the paint. Auburn's two starting big men this year, Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell, are not excellent perimeter scorers. Cardwell, specifically, has only made one three-point shot on the season. With Kalkbrenner guarding Caldwell, it should allow for Creighton's drop coverage to work seamlessly. Kalkbrenner should be able to stay in the paint, allowing him to alter shots at the rim — something he does better than any player in the country.
Alternatively to the point above, however, is that if you put Kalkbrenner on Cardwell, that likely tasks Jasen Green to guard 6'10 Johni Broome. Green did a wonderful job guarding Eric Dixon previously this season, but Broome is a different beast. Green will have his hands full on that end at all times.
Auburn's overall backcourt length could prove troublesome for Creighton and Steven Ashworth. All five Auburn starters are at least 6'4 with some rangy wingspans. That archetype has not been Ashworth's favorite to go up against, as at times it has stalled Creighton from getting into their offensive sets.
Creighton will certainly enter the game as a large underdog, but they have a real chance to win this one. When the Bluejays are playing at their best, it's really tough to hang with them. We saw it against Louisville — when McAndrew, Neal, and Green are putting up meaningful contributions next to Kalkbrenner and Ashworth, watch out.
I'll go ahead and take Creighton to pull off the upset here. Ryan Kalkbrenner hasn't lost a first-weekend NCAA Tournament game in his five-year Creighton career. The Jays are a really tough team to prepare for in just a day and a half.
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