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The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner! For most of you, your leagues are about to get back up and running, and you may have already done some draft prep as we approach the end of training camp. Today, I'll go through players who I think will have a strong impact, others who will fall short of their projections, some sneaky studs who are going in later rounds, and a batch of rookies who may produce early in their careers.
These are for PPR style leagues, so if you play in Half-PPR or Standard scoring leagues, these may not be the best options for you. Regardless, I feel confident that these are the best players to go after - or avoid.
Photo: Joe Sargent/GettyImages
Boomers
QB: Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
I spoke at length about Trevor losing a ton of production from his receivers in my Jaguars Team Breakdown. He lost plenty of touchdowns and a good chunk of yardage, and with some of those players gone, I expect him to do much better this season.
RB: Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen was one of the most efficient backs in the NFL last season - and, for what it's worth, he's a better pure rusher than Najee Harris. Among RBs with 125+ carries, Warren was 1st in missed tackles forced per carry (0.36), 2nd in yards after contact per carry (3.64), and 10th in 10+ yard carries (24). Additionally, among RBs with 40+ targets, he ranked 5th in yards per route ran (1.45) and 6th in yards after catch (496), despite having the 3rd lowest average depth of target (-1.8). With his overall explosiveness, prowess as a pass catcher, and offensive scheme that features multiple RBs, Warren should have a big year.
WR: Diontae Johnson - Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young had virtually no help besides an old-ass Adam Thielen last season. The Panthers beefed up the OL and added Diontae Johnson, who is one of the best separators in the league. If Bryce takes that next step and the OL play improves the way it should, then Diontae will finish as a top-20 receiver in fantasy this year.
TE: Jake Ferguson - Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are in a make or break season. CeeDee will obviously be the top target in this offense, but Ferguson may end up with the 2nd most targets and catches among the entire roster for a second season in a row. He finished as TE9 last season in total points and points per game, and he should see an increased volume now that he is a trusted asset to this offense. For those still questioning this pick, from Week 12 to Week 17, he was 7th in points per game among all tight ends once he was solidified as their #2 target.
D/ST: Chicago Bears
In my Bears Team Breakdown, I wasn't overly fond of this defense from a real football standpoint. But for fantasy, they are a great option. From Week 10 to Week 17, they averaged 10.7 fantasy points, the 3rd most in the entire league in that stretch. They also added Kevin Byard III to the secondary, and should get some help from rookie pass rusher Austin Booker.
K: Greg Zuerlein - New York Jets
Greg the Leg finished 13th among all kickers last year despite how garbage this offense was. I expect them to move the ball up and down the field more efficiently - and just more in general, which will give Zuerlein plenty of opportunities to put up points.
Busters
QB: Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders
I'm seeing Jayden Daniels get taken anywhere between the 10th to 15th QB off the board. This is a trap. He has one of the worst OLs in the league, and his only proven receiving weapons are Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler. Jahan Dotson was inconsistent last season, and Ben Sinnott and Luke McCaffrey have unknown roles in the offense. I don't think Jayden is worth taking that high in re-draft leagues.
RB: Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad benefitted from having minimal competition in the Bucs backfield in 2023. Yes, the interior OL was horrific, but even then, he struggled to create plays on a consistent basis. The RBs that prevail year-over-year are the ones that find those small holes and creases, and are able to exploit them. Bucs rookie Bucky Irving has that ability, and he'll challenge Rachaad for significant playing time.
WR: Stefon Diggs - Houston Texans
Let's be clear: Nico Collins is the WR1, and Tank Dell is the WR2 - even if he's playing in the slot. Diggs will definitely be a matchup nightmare for CB2s, and he'll thrive in that role from a real football perspective, but his top-24 fantasy rank among WRs is unwarranted, especially at this point in his career.
TE: Pat Freiermuth - Pittsburgh Steelers
Once you get outside the top 10 tight ends, it gets murky as to who will produce and who wont. I'm out on Freiermuth this year for a multitude of reasons. Whether Russell Wilson or Justin Fields is throwing the ball, neither of them target tight ends often enough to make me confident in Pat's production. To boot, the offense is being ran by Arthur Smith, who is notorious for not using his best tight end on a consistent basis.
D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers
Sorry to double dip on the Steelers here, but the fact they're being projected as a top-8 fantasy defense is somewhat laughable. The secondary is considerably worse, and even with the strong front seven that they have, they go against some insanely talented QBs who will get the ball out before they can get home. Those QBs include Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Aaron Rodgers. I just don't think they'll be able to make up the difference against the worse-off QBs on their schedule.
K: Brandon Aubrey - Dallas Cowboys
Aubrey was the top kicker in fantasy last year, and by a healthy 15 point margin. It's not that Aubrey won't be good, but it's rare for a kicker to repeat as a top fantasy option across consecutive seasons. Even Justin Tucker, one of the best kickers in NFL history, has never finished as a top-2 kicker in consecutive seasons. Aubrey should still crack the top 10, but I'm not sure if he's worth being one of the first kickers off the board.
Photo: Luis M Alvarez/Associated Press
Sleepers
QB: Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers
I spoke earlier about all of the help Bryce has, but the biggest lift he'll have will be Dave Canales. He's the QB whisperer in today's NFL, as he got Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield back on track after their careers sputtered out. Now, he'll be the head coach with a young, talented QB to work with. Bryce showed flashes of top QB play last season, and I think that'll be realized much more consistently this year.
RB: Jaleel McLaughlin - Denver Broncos
The Broncos only true receiving back should get plenty of chances to get the ball this season. The Broncos took a chunk out of their receiver room, and they'll be looking for options outside of Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr to make plays. There's a good chance Jaleel finishes 4th - and maybe even 3rd, in targets and receptions on this roster, and he's also got some decent rushing upside that will help him even more.
WR: Dontayvion Wicks - Green Bay Packers
The Packers have four receivers who could be their WR1. With that, I have a strong feeling Dontayvion Wicks will finish as the WR2 on this team, and he's being drafted at a much lower value. In his final six games of 2023, he finished with 12+ points in three contests, and nearly 11+ points in four. He also saw 4+ targets in eight out of his last nine games, and that was with him playing less than 45% of snaps in six of those matchups. He should see an increased role this season given his production, especially if one or more of the other Packers WRs go down.
TE: Michael Mayer - Las Vegas Raiders
I know what you're thinking, "but Jordan, they just drafted Brock Bowers, why would Mayer be a sleeper?". Once you view Brock as a slot WR and/or an H-back rather than a traditional tight end, it becomes much clearer that Michael Mayer isn't going to lose many snaps to Brock. He's going to get the heavy bulk of those Y-TE type snaps, and Luke Getsy loves using multiple tight ends. This will give Mayer a chance to see a higher volume of targets than he did in McDaniels offense last year. He may not finish top-10, but he'll have a good chance to finish in the top-15 in terms of production.
D/ST: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle boasts a young, feisty secondary, a front-seven with versatility, and a head coach who thrives at creating pressure. Ignore what this defense did last year, Mike Macdonald will get them right in 2024 - and this unit has a potential to finish top-12 this season. They're worth the late draft pickup if you're looking for a sneaky defense.
K: Matt Prater - Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals offense was one of the most efficient once Kyler came back from his ACL tear. That meant more opportunities for Prater, and from Week 10 to Week 17, he averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game, which was 8th among kickers. Prater is currently ranked as the 24th kicker in terms of ADP, and with the vast improvements to this offense, he should finish in the top-10 throughout the entire season.
Rookies
QB: Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears
No rookie QB has ended up in as good of a situation as Caleb has. He's got a loaded receiver pool to choose from, an above average offensive line, and a defense that will get them on the field multiple times. If you're gonna take any rookie QB in re-draft formats, Caleb is your guy.
RB: Dylan Laube - Las Vegas Raiders
I fought - and I mean, I fought hard against the idea of putting Dylan here when I started writing this before training camp. I was planning to put any one of Tyrone Tracy Jr, Bucky Irving, Marshawn Lloyd, and even Kimani Vidal in this spot above Dylan. But since camp has started, the Raiders' coaches, players, and media have all raved about what they've seen him do. He's already getting 1st team reps as the teams' third down RB, and that's where he'll make his money. Add in a few rushing opportunities to the chance he finishes top-5 in catches on this roster, he's got a shot to lead all rookie RBs in fantasy points.
WR: Ja'Lynn Polk - New England Patriots
The Pats have a bevvy of young receivers who could be their WR1. I've been in the Polk Fan Club since I watched his tape for the first time, and he's done nothing but impress throughout training camp. The obvious choice for the top rookie WR is Marvin Harrison Jr, but given that he's going as high as the 2nd round, Polk will be a much better value play for a little bit less production. I don't think he'll finish with 1,000 yards, but he should see 800+ yards and multiple TD opportunities.
TE: Ben Sinnott - Washington Commanders
Despite the Commanders signing Zach Ertz, Sinnott will end up becoming the starter in the back half of the season for the Commies. Where Brock Bowers has to compete against Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers for touches, Sinnott will have to compete with Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler. He'll have a much clearer path to top-2 touches than Brock does, and he's got juice to break open big plays when needed.
Photo: Eric Canha/USA TODAY Sports
Final Notes
With the names above, be on the lookout for Kyler Murray, Tyjae Spears, Chris Godwin, and Juwan Johnson to put up some formidable seasons. On the flip side, I would expect Jared Goff, D'Andre Swift, Calvin Ridley, and TJ Hockenson to not have as big of seasons as they are currently being projected. Injuries will play a large part into how this fantasy season - and every fantasy season, will turn out.
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