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It’s been too long since I’ve written a preview for a game. But I felt this game was worth it, considering I have watched these teams play far too much.
Generic Information
Location: Washington, DC
Tip Time: 6:30 pm EST
Channel: FS1
Spread: Georgetown -3.5, ML -165 (about 62% probability)
Game Preview
Peavy vs Telfort
It’s no secret that this matchup is the elephant in the room. Micah Peavy is an elite, elite defender who Georgetown will consistently put on their opponent's best player. In this game, I’d be stunned if he isn’t covering Jahmyl Telfort. So much of Butler’s offense revolves around Telfort, combined with his size, Peavy is the perfect matchup for a player of Jahmyl Telfort’s mold. Micah Peavy will be tasked with covering Jahmyl Telfort, and likely pestering him all game long (Peavy ranks second in the Big East in steals with 2.3SPG, including a seven-steal performance in Georgetown’s dominant win over Creighton).
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Butler counts on Jahmyl Telfort for so much offensively. Telfort has the highest usage rate for Butler (24.8%, tenth in the conference), and leads the Bulldogs in points, assists and steals.
In games Butler wins, Telfort is averaging 18.1PPG, 3.7RPG, 3.2APG, shooting 50.5% FG and 43.8% 3PT.
In Butler losses, Telfort averages 14.8PPG, 5.3RPG and 3.6APG, shooting 40.9% FG and 24.4% 3PT.
It’s a pretty obvious conclusion, but Butler is better when their best player is at his best. In games Butler isn’t winning, he’s more of a facilitator, and really cannot get his shot going. If you can shut down Telfort, Butler struggles. So if Peavy can continue to prove why he is one of the best defenders in this league, this can be a tough matchup for Butler. If Telfort is up to the task, Butler can be on their way to a huge conference road win.
Weakness vs Weakness
Georgetown is a very good defensive team, but a quite poor team on the offensive end. Butler meanwhile is a good offensive team, but a bad defensive team. Where on the last point I spoke on the matchup to watch on one end (and easily the most exciting angle in my opinion), basketball is played both ways.
Georgetown wants to pound the ball inside. They are not a good three-point shooting team at all (second-worst team in the league only to St. John’s) and also don’t get to the free-throw line at all (last in the conference, 347th in the country, while Butler doesn’t foul defensively), which really limits them offensively, and takes away any sort of offensive consistency, leaving them liable to losing a game by 25 despite holding their opponent to 19 second-half points. The Hoyas are effective inside the arc, largely because of freshman Thomas Sorber, who leads the team in scoring and is one of four Hoyas averaging in double figures. The Hoyas are also one of the better offensive-rebounding teams in the league, which they will have to take advantage of here.
Georgetown is quite lucky Seton Hall exists (240 in adj. Offensive efficiency), otherwise they would be the worst offense in the conference by a decent margin, with the 185th-ranked offense by adjusted efficiency. However, if we just look at conference play, Georgetown’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 95.4 ranks… dead last.
One thing Georgetown does far too much is turn the ball over. The Hoyas turn the ball over on 21% of their possessions in conference play, ranking, you guessed it, dead last. If there ever was a get-right game in that aspect, it’s Butler. Butler, in conference play, turns their opposition over just 10.1% of the time, ranking, you guessed right again, dead last. Butler ranks 362nd (out of 364) in the country in defensive turnover percentage across the season, and if you applied the 10.1% across the entire season, it would rank dead last (of all 364 teams).
Across Coach Matta’s tenure, Butler’s defense has generally started the season well, with some stat always coming out early in the season that Butler’s defense is limiting teams to shooting really poorly from the field, just for it to fall off a cliff.
If you can see here, as of December fourth, the say after the Merrimack game, Butler's defense ranked first in effective field goal percentage nationally (the text in bold).
That happened again this year. Butler’s defense in conference play ranks ninth in the league, headlined by the aforementioned turnover percentage and ranking ninth in 2PT% defense. Butler’s generally the less athletic team, and has allowed teams to shoot above 57% from inside the arc four times in league play (DePaul, Creighton, Marquette 2x). In non-conference play, this number was only eclipsed once, by Wisconsin (which is the first game Augusto Cassia missed this season).
So what gives? How will the Hoyas get those post entries to Sorber, and can the Georgetown guards maintain control of the possession and create shots? Or will Butler be able to wall off Sorber, and force Georgetown into some tough mid-range jumpers?
Strengths for Each Team
That essay was not fun to type, so we’re going back to positive vibes here.
Butler:
Butler excels at getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have the thirteenth-highest free-throw rate in the country and the highest in the Big East. Against a really thin Hoya depth chart, Butler drawing fouls could make a huge difference. Especially if either Sorber or Peavy get into foul trouble, the Hoyas are substantially worse when one of those two is off the floor.
Butler can also light it up from long distance. The Bulldogs have the shooters to get scorching hot from deep on any given game, with eight performances this season exceeding 37.5% from deep. In those games, Butler is 7-1. In their two best wins of the season, Mississippi State and SMU, Butler shot 54.5% and 46.2% from three respectively, knocking down twelve three-point attempts in each game.
Lastly, the Bulldogs just don’t foul. Butler ranks seventh in free-throw rate for opponents. If you are going to beat Butler, you have to score over their defense, and won’t get the opportunity to do so from the charity stripe.
Georgetown:
Georgetown’s defense is really good; it’s clearly the best unit in this game. With Thomas Sorber anchoring this defense, the Hoyas have seen a tremendous jump in rim protection, as opponents only shoot 43.3% from two-point range, which ranks seventh best in the country. Last season in that same stat, opponents shot 57.4% at the rim which ranked 360th in the country. This turnaround is absolutely unheard of.
At times this season, Butler has struggled with turnovers, which Georgetown will look to take advantage of. Georgetown ranks third in the Big East in steals (only behind SJU and Marquette, two of the best in the country). In those three games, Butler lost the turnover battle 47-17. If Georgetown can even somewhat replicate that, the Hoyas should comfortably be on their way to victory.
Georgetown is also one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in this league. The Hoyas collect 34.4% of their misses, which ranks third in the conference. Second-chance points have been there for this Hoyas team all season and this is another area they will need to exploit in this one.
Prediction
I think Georgetown is a pretty tough matchup for Butler, based on how I see this game. I think Pierre Brooks is a very tough cover for the Hoyas, but he largely isn’t a creator. Jahmyl Telfort initiates a lot of offense, and I’ve yet to see a player look comfortable going against Micah Peavy. If Telfort is the first I will tip my cap to a truly terrific talent, but I don’t think it will be easy.
Georgetown also shouldn’t turn the ball over against Butler (ok well... they'll probably turn it over more than they should, but not too many will be forced). They should be able to run their offense, not having to deal with an in-your-face, physical defense on the other side. I think Georgetown will be able to pound the ball inside and out-physical this Butler team.
I like Georgetown here, come out angry, and might even just break the 70-point mark for the first time this calendar year. Might, I can't pick that yet.
Pick: Georgetown 68, Butler 61
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