Alright team, it's nearly 5:00 AM as I sit at the Newark airport and type this final paragraph. I was at Madison Square Garden covering the Big East Tournament before packing up shop to head home. I've been studying tape, talking to @JBRBracketology on Twitter (great follow) and grading out some of the potential matchups Creighton could draw in this year's March Madness.
Now, this list isn't the end-all-be-all, but I think there is a greater than 90% chance that the team Creighton draws in the first round is one of the seven teams mentioned below.
West Virginia — A+
Former Creighton assistant Darian DeVries has led the Mountaineers to the NCAA Tournament in year one of his tenure. I have this down as the overall most favorable draw of likely NCAA Tournament opponents. DeVries' son, Tucker, unfortunately went down with an injury in early December and is out for the remainder of the season. Since Tucker's injury, West Virginia is just 2-7 against top-50 KenPom teams, with their last win over a fellow NCAA Tournament team coming on January 18th.
The Mountaineers frontcourt is headed by Toby Okani and Amani Hansberry, both of whom struggle to shoot from beyond the arc. This would allow Kalkbrenner to stay planted in the paint and do what he does best - alter shots at the rim. On the other side of the floor, WVU has a quality defense (13th nationally), but not the long, aggressive frontcourt defenders that tend to give Creighton trouble.
This isn't all that likely of a matchup, but is within the realm of possibility.
Baylor — A
Like West Virginia, Baylor is dealing with an injury that would really affect how they'd be able to compete against the Bluejays. Josh Ojianwuna (7.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Baylor's tallest player at 6'10, is out for the year with a knee injury. This leaves a very weak defensive frontcourt that Ryan Kalkbrenner should be able to tear up. Baylor's backcourt is enough to put fear into any opponent with the amount of talent it possesses. VJ Edgecombe (15.0 ppg) leads the way and is on his way to being a first-round draft pick.
However, the frontcourt deficiencies would lead to a clear advantage for Creighton. Similar to WVU, Baylor is just 2-7 against top 60 competition since the turn of the calendar. Creighton getting a chance to play one of these power conference teams hovering around .500 in conference play — that would be music to my ears.
This one I do think has a good likelihood. There are a couple of outside factors that could impact this, but I think there's a moderate possibility.
Mississippi State — B+
This would be a fun one, and probably one of the two mostly likely matchups. Josh Hubbard is Mississippi State's lead guard. He's their engine and is exceptionally quick. However, he doesn't have great size or length at just 5'10. Ashworth should be able to find some comfortability in this game — something he didn't see much of at all in the Big East tournament.
Also, the Bulldogs play two centers - Michael Nwoko and KeShawn Murphy. One common thread between the two is that neither can shoot a lick from behind the arc. This allows Creighton to maintain its defensive integrity and funnel toward Kalkbrenner.
The negative in this matchup is that MSU forces steals at a super high clip, which has at times been a problem area for the Jays. However, after playing UConn and St. John's this past weekend, I can't imagine the Jays having too many ball control disabilities against Mississippi State. All in all, I think this is still a solid matchup.
One of the few most likely scenarios.
Georgia — B
A very mixed bag here against Georgia. Let's start with this — Georgia does not rely on the three point shot at all. Only 27.7 percent of their points come beyond the arc, much lower than average. What they do rely on is getting to the free throw line, which Creighton will likely not allow them the ability to do. Kalkbrenner's verticality would frustrate this Georgia team, which does a lot of driving to the rim with its head down.
On the other end, Georgia does have a long, physical defense which ranks in the top 30 of KenPom. Georgia played both Marquette and St. John's this season, and went 1-1 against them. Although, their win over St. John's had some external circumstances (SJU's third game in four days, Deivon Smith being gone, etc.) that make me throw out that result, to some degre
The Bulldogs won four games to close the regular season before losing in round one of the SEC Tournament. They played good ball down the stretch and are very talented. However, they're also relatively young and unproven on this stage.
This is one of the two most likely matchups.
New Mexico — B-
The Lobos compiled a gaudy 26-7 record this season, including a pair of top-30 non-conference wins over UCLA and VCU. They have a superstar lead guard in Donovan Dent (20.6 ppg) who can absolutely take over a game. They have two seasoned vets in the frontcourt in Junior-Joseph and Amzil, and play at the fourth fastest tempo in the country.
This is a tough team to prep for in just a couple of days. Creighton is likely the more skilled team overall and would certainly be the favorite in this game, but this would be a scary one. For whatever reason, national analysts seem to think Creighton plays at a faster pace than they really do. I worry about them getting sped up in this one and falling behind early.
If the Jays are able to control the tempo and play the type of basketball they want stylistically, they should be fine in this one. Fortunately, the NCAA Tournament doesn't favor teams that want to get up and down constantly. This one smells like a Jamiya Neal masterclass, but still not the most favorable draw.
One of the four most likely scenarios.
Gonzaga — C-
Ah, yes, the Ryan Nembhard versus Creighton potential. Gonzaga is tricky to cap. They're super high in predictive metrics (#10 on KenPom) but struggle when looking at resume-based metrics.
Gonzaga has really struggled to win games against elite competition. However, they have been unquestionably competitive on this stage, they just haven't been finishing out the games. I have no empirical data to back this up, but in these player vs. former team revenge spots, I'd venture to guess that the former player ends up winning that more times than not, for whatever reason.
I do not think this is likely. But it's certainly within the the realm of possibilities.
Memphis — D+
Alright, for my money, this would be the true doomsday-esque scenario. Memphis has lost five games on the season and has the country's sixth best three-point shooting percentage. They're long, athletic, and shoot the three better than nearly anyone — not necessarily encouraging to see them alongside you in the bracket!
The Tigers have high major talent up and down the roster — PJ Haggerty (TCU), Dain Dainja (Illinois), Tyrese Hunter (Texas), Moussa Cisse (Ole Miss). Those players didn't fail at their previous stops, they just sought something fresh. This would be one of the few teams Creighton is likely to play that has an elite rim protector as well. Creighton leads the country in two-point field goal percentage; Cisse, Dainja, and Memphis as a whole would challenge this.
This one is one of the few most likely situations. A lot depends on what they do today in their conference championship game.
The Selection Show will air on CBS at 5:00 CT.