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The Falcons have been a good team for the past few years, but they've been held back by horrible QB play and ridiculously bad play-calling. With Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith out, and Kirk Cousins and Zac Robinson in, this offense is going to be much better. But is that enough to get this team to the top of their conference?
I'm optimistic, but it'll be a slugfest all year for my 19th overall team.
Photo: Kevin C. Cox/GettyImages
Strengths
Complete Offense
Deep Secondary
Good Interior Defensive Linemen
The Falcons got their QB, have a young and electric running back, a versatile receiving core, and an ass-kicking OL. There's nothing stopping this unit from being a top 5 offense except themselves. Obviously, Kirk's recovery from his injury will be a factor into how good this team can be, but even if he can't go, Michael Penix Jr has played a ton of snaps and has a strong enough arm to make do.
The cornerback and safety positions on this team are loaded, with nine players who have significant starter snaps over the past two seasons. Jessie Bates III and AJ Terrell are the big names, and they'll be assisted by DeMarcco Hellams and Richie Grant over the top, as well as Clark Phillips III, Dee Alford, Antonio Hamilton Sr, Kevin King, and Mike Hughes covering out wide. Most of these guys have put up a 65+ overall defensive grade within the past two seasons, making this deep and serviceable group at worst.
While I don't agree with how the Falcons attacked this draft, you can't deny that their interior defensive group is going to be a problem for years to come. They're led by veterans Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata, with Zach Harrison, Ruke Orhorhoro, Brandon Dorlus, and Zion Logue as the young developmental pieces. With Grady and David's contracts expiring after 2025, these young guns with have plenty of time to get up to pro speed.
Weaknesses
Edge Defender Unit
Lack of Offensive Line Depth
Linebacking Core
Arnold Ebiketie is a solid pass rusher, but that's where the pros end for this edge unit. Lorenzo Carter and James Smith-Williams shouldn't be starters, but one of them will be. They added Bralen Trice through the draft, but I wasn't overly impressed with his tape. Each player is fine in their own right, but Ebiketie is the only one who should be a starter.
As good as this offensive line is, they have virtually no depth behind them. Besides Storm Norton, the other four projected backups have played 362 total snaps combined throughout their careers. Storm has played over 1,700 snaps over the past four years, including a 1,078 snap season in 2021. He's been pretty poor as a pass protector, but has been decent at run blocking, posting 60+ blocking grades in three of four seasons.
This LB unit is pretty bad overall, but they have a few gems. Kaden Elliss has been great in an increased role over the past two seasons, as he's posted a 75+ overall defensive grade in each year. Troy Andersen has been the complete opposite, as he's posted 40.2 and 50.6 grades in consecutive years, which are significantly below average. Nate Landman was solid as a starter, but struggled heavily in coverage. JD Bertrand, who's incredibly physical for a LB, will have a chance to find his way into a starting role with some lackluster competition.
Key Additions
Kirk Cousins - Quarterback
Brandon Dorlus - Defensive Linemen
Raheem Morris - Head Coach
The upgrade from Ridder to Cousins can't be overstated enough - even with his Achilles injury. Kirk will get to play behind the best OL he's ever had, with possibly the best receiving room he's ever had, especially if Kyle Pitts can finally put it together. He'll fit in perfectly to Zac Robinson's offense, and if he's fully healthy, this offense will be scary.
I had a higher grade on Dorlus than I did Trice, especially with how versatile Dorlus can be. He played off the edge a ton in his junior year, and was asked to play inside a lot more in his senior season. Having experience in both spots, and playing in a defense that thrives off moving guys up and down the front, is going to do him wonders in his development as a pro.
Raheem is going to get the absolute most out of this defense, even with some shortcomings in the pass rush. He has a bevvy of players at his disposal with different skillsets, and the fact the Rams defense was as good as it was last year speaks volumes to his coaching ability. I would expect the same result here in ATL, especially with some studs he can lean on.
Dark Horse
Arnold Ebiketie - Edge Defender
If anyone benefited from Raheem's hire, it was Arnold. Ebiketie has been a solid pass rusher to start his career, and he posted a 16.00% pressure rate in his sophomore campaign. He also added 12 stops + TFLs, despite playing just under 400 snaps. He should see an increased role in this new defense, and he's bound for a breakout year.
Photo: Brandon Magnus/Atlanta Falcons
Record
9-8
The Falcons are the first playoff team for 2024 to make the list, and playing in the weakest division in the NFL helps. I think they make easy work of the Panthers and Saints in both matchups, and will split games with the Bucs. The remainder of their schedule is filled with winnable games, but with a new coaching staff and a QB coming off a major leg injury, I think they hit their absolute floor at nine wins.
Final Notes
With Kirk on a massive contract, and with the biggest cap hits coming in 2026 and 2027, this team has a two year Super Bowl window. This year will get them off the ground, and next year will be their real shot. If they take care of next offseason correctly, this team could take a huge leap into the top 10.
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