.png)
The Ravens were the best regular season team in 2023, on paper and on tape. Lamar took home a near-unanimous MVP, and Baltimore boasted the best record, the best offense, and the best defense. However, they lost a ton of good pieces heading into 2024, and did what they could to replace them.
Can Baltimore recover enough and make another AFC Championship run? Let's see how my 5th-ranked team shapes up for this upcoming campaign.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Strengths
Lamar Jackson
Rushing Attack
Experienced Secondary
The two-time MVP became unhinged as a passer in 2023. His box score doesn't do him justice, as he had the 7th highest adjusted completion rate at 77.6%, the 3rd highest average depth of target at 9.1 yards, and 4th highest yards per attempt at 8.05. He also averaged 11.98 yards per completion, and had an 85.1 passing grade - which was tied for 4th overall, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen. Oh yeah, he's also one of the best rushing QBs in the league, making him one of the most dangerous players in the NFL to defend against.
This running game was already one of the best in the league for several years prior to 2024. Keaton Mitchell burst onto the scene before tearing his ACL, Gus Edwards could run through anyone, and Justice Hill provided them chunk yards when needed. With Gus gone and Mitchell recovering, they brought in Derrick Henry to add another level to this ground game, and this is one of the most well-designed rushing offenses Henry has ever been a part of. Add Lamar's legs, and they should be top-5 once again.
This secondary is filled with some veteran playmakers. Marlon Humphrey has been a top-10 corner for the past several years, and despite missing time last season, was still effective when on the field. Brandon Stephens and Arthur Maulet have played over 2,000 snaps in their careers, with both playing their best in 2023. Kyle Hamilton is pushing to be one of the best safeties in the league, and Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams have been consistently good throughout their careers. This secondary will put them way ahead of any average pass defense.
Weaknesses
Offensive Line Turnover
Wide Receiver Room
Overall Defensive Depth
The Ravens had one of, if not the, best OLs in the league last year. Heading into this season, they have to replace three starters who played nearly 3,000 snaps combined between them. They do have some developmental pieces in the wings in Ben Cleveland, Daniel Faalele, Andrew Vorhees, and rookie Roger Rosengarten. Roger will most likely start at right tackle, meaning the two guard positions are wide open for the remaining three players. They may be getting younger and more athletic, but replacing three starting offensive linemen is a tall order for any team.
The Ravens once again did very little to address their shallow WR room. Yes, Zay Flowers had a great rookie season (as I predicted), and Rashod Bateman has been good when healthy, but no one else in this group is a real threat. Nelson Agholor is fine for what he is, Deonte Harty is nothing more than a gadget piece, Tylan Wallace has just 13 targets throughout his first three seasons, and rookie Tez Walker is underwhelming outside of being a go-ball merchant.
This starting defense is stacked once again, but if any of them go down, there are only a few players who can help pick up the pieces in their absence. The LB depth is the most concerning, and the secondary depth isn't much better, as Eddie Jackson and Nate Wiggins are the only "depth" players I believe will contribute - and I say "depth" because they'll each play 600+ snaps a piece, but are listed as backups as of right now. The defensive front does have some solid options, but each of them have red flags, namely David Ojabo, who has yet to prove he has fully recovered from his Achilles tear during the 2022 draft process.
Key Additions
Derrick Henry - Running Back
Nate Wiggins - Cornerback
Adisa Isaac - Edge Defender
Despite his age, King Henry shows no signs of slowing down. Behind the lowest graded OL in the league, he still recorded 1,167 yards on 280 carries - which was his lowest volume in a healthy season since 2018, gained 63 first downs, and had 16 15+ yards runs. All of these metrics ranked 2nd in the league, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. He also averaged 3.32 yards after contact per carry, forced 57 missed tackles, and added 12 TDs, all while recording 0 fumbles and posting an 86.8 rushing grade. Now he gets to join an established running game behind a better OL than he ever had in Tennessee.
The Ravens biggest need was CB, and they got a damn good one in Nate. He was one of the best man corners in college football in 2023, as he has lighting fast footwork and hip twitch, and he backs that up with good ball skills to breakup passes. He's had an impressive preseason and training camp so far, it's only a matter of time when he's starting opposite Marlon Humphrey.
Adisa was another one of "my guys" in this class, and he'll fit in perfectly to the Baltimore defense. He's got advanced run stopping traits and brings solid nuance as a pass rusher. He's not as twitchy as his Penn State counterpart Chop Robinson, but he's got a technical side to him that not many young edges have. If David Ojabo isn't healthy, then Adisa should be next in line for significant snaps.
Dark Horse
Trenton Simpson - Linebacker
I wasn't the biggest Simpson guy when he was coming out of college, but I'm a believer that scheme fit can outweigh what film tells us. Trenton is the definition of that, and I immediately changed my tone about him once the Ravens drafted him. He's an even better fit next to Roquan than Patrick Queen was, as Simpson has better speed and coverage traits than Queen. He's been balling out all summer long, and he's one of my breakout candidates for 2024.
Photo: Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports
Record
11-6
With all of the turnover on both sides of the ball, and losing one of the best defensive minds in the league, I don't see this team putting together another 13-4 season. With that said, they play a relatively easy schedule for a team coming off a first place finish. The Ravens open their season against the Chiefs, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, and Commanders. I see them going 3-3 at the absolute worst, and they may even go 5-1 over that stretch. On the flip side, they'll play the Eagles, Texans, and Browns in 3 of the last 5 games. They also have favorable matchups against Buccaneers, Broncos, Chargers, Giants, and Steelers twice. If they can put together eight wins in those favorable matchups, and split their games with the Bengals and Browns, they can skate by to another 10+ win season.
Final Notes
Losing Mike MacDonald is going to hurt this team more than Ravens fans will want to admit. I think Zach Orr will do a fine job in replacing him, but it's incredibly rare for a successor to have an impact the way Mike Mac did.
Comments