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Since Josh Allen turned it up a notch in 2020, the Bills have been a consistent contender. Despite great rosters and strong regular season play, they have failed to get over the hump when the postseason rolled around.
Can they finally get over the hump this year? Let's see if my 7th-ranked team has what it takes to make a Super Bowl run in 2024.
Strengths
Top-Tier Cornerback Trio
Versatile Offensive Attack
Deep Defensive Front
Despite missing Tre'Davious White most of last season, Buffalo's CBs played out of their minds. Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson all played over 800 total snaps and 500 coverage snaps, and each of them recorded 80+ defensive grades and 80+ coverage grades. Across 211 combined targets and 145 receptions, they allowed a 68.72% completion rate, 1,435 yards, and 588 yards after catch - to the tune of 7 INTs and 20 pass break ups. These look fine in general, but on a per catch and per snap basis, these numbers are electric. They allowed 9.90 yards per reception, 4.06 YAC per reception, and 0.83 yards per coverage snap, all great numbers for any single corner, let alone an entire unit across 1,735 coverage snaps.
With the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills needed to diversify their offense this past free agency and draft cycle. They added Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, KJ Hamler, and Keon Coleman to potentially be replacements in the aggregate. In the backfield, they added dynamic rookie Ray Davis to help lighten James Cook's load. With them, they have veterans Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Dawson Knox, who will be mainstays in this offense. Despite no true WR1, they have plenty of options at their disposal.
This defensive line and linebacker group will give offenses sleepless nights in 2024. Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau have gotten better and better every season, and they'll get help from DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson, and rookie DeWayne Carter inside, as well as Von Miller, AJ Epenesa, Dawuane Smoot, and rookie Javon Solomon on the edges. Half of these veteran defenders posted a 67+ defensive grade in 2023, with three of them earning 80+ marks.
Weaknesses
No WR1
Lack of Run Game Minus Josh Allen
Underwhelming Interior OL
Despite the immense amount of weapons they have, this receiving room is not good enough to take on their opponents' CB1 snap after snap. Keon Coleman was a human highlight reel in college, but his separation struggles have shown up throughout camp and the preseason. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are good WR2s, but I trust them even less than Keon in the WR1 role. MVS will play the Gabe Davis role in a minimized capacity, and Mack Hollins will be their big-body-go-get-it option when Keon isn't on the field. Dalton Kincaid will most likely lead this team in targets and receptions given how he'll be used.
When looking at the box score, James Cook seems like a upper-tier starting RB. Among all RBs last year, he was 4th in yards (1,122), 11th in yards per carry (4.73), 2nd in 10+ yard runs (33), and 15th in yards after contact (653). On a per carry basis, however, he's not as strong. He tied for 44th with Alexander Mattison in yards after contact per carry (2.76), tied for 42nd in missed tackles forced per carry (0.16), and 45th in PFF's elusive rating (48.0). For comparison, Chuba Hubbard was less efficient per carry (3.78 yards per rush), but had more yards after contact per carry (2.87), first downs (59), and first down rate (24.79%). The data shows Cook's production won't be consistent year-over-year.
With Mitch Morse gone and not much done to revamp this unit, I'm skeptical for what they'll do in 2024. Connor McGovern moves to center to replace him, but he's only played 100 out of his 2,200+ pro snaps at that position, and he's never posted a blocking grade above 60 as a center. David Edwards hasn't been a starter since 2021, but did well on his 145 blocking snaps in 2023. O'Cyrus Torrence was pretty meh as a rookie, posting a 56 overall blocking grade, and he trailed off towards the end of last season (posted a sub-60 grade in 5 of his last 7 games). They added Sedrick Van Pran through the draft and La'El Collins through free agency, but I have some reservations about what they'll be able to do in 2024.
Key Additions
Cole Bishop - Safety
DeWayne Carter - Interior Defensive Lineman
Javon Solomon - Edge Defender
This was one of my favorite picks of the draft - from a scheme fit and player ability standpoint. Bishop has the flexibility to play in the slot or over the top, as he has great athleticism and range to cover the pass and support against the run. He has a high motor and gives the Bills much needed confidence in the backend of their secondary.
I had a low grade on DeWayne Carter, but he landed in a really good situation in Buffalo. He gets to sit behind three valued veterans in the league who have all played over 3,000 snaps each. DeWayne's got the size to play as a nose or a true 3-tech, which is something the Bills value in their interior defensive linemen. If he learns how to use his hands more in the run game and increase his pass rush pool, he could be a really solid rotational piece as a rookie.
With Javon's size (6'1", 250 LBS), it made sense that he fell in the draft. From a pure film standpoint, he easily could've been a day 2 selection. He has an insanely fast get off and a solid pass rush pool. He does leave something to be desired against the run, but the Bills will lean on Rousseau, Epenesa, and Smoot to take on those roles. Javon could find himself playing high impact pass rush snaps by the end of his rookie year.
Dark Horse
Khalil Shakir - Wide Receiver
I touched on Shakir a bit earlier, and I think he's going to be a pleasant surprise for anyone who doesn't follow the Bills. From Week 7 to Week 18 - when he started getting significant snaps, he posted a 77.50% reception rate, 14.28 yards per catch, 1.90 yards per route ran, and dropped just one pass the entire season. He also generated a 75.7 receiving grade, and if he stays that efficient with the 2nd or 3rd most targets on the team, he should be in for a breakout season. To paint a clearer picture, if he runs 550 routes and gets 80 targets in 2024, he should post anywhere between 900 to 1,100 yards in the upcoming campaign.
Photo: Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports
Record
10-7
The Bills are in for a tough stretch of games to start their season, where they play the Cardinals, Dolphins, Jaguars, Ravens, Texans, and Jets in their first six matchups. If they win half of those games, they'll be in good shape. Towards the end of their slate, they'll play the Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions within a four week stretch. If they lose all three of those games, that gives them room to lose just one more contest. I do think this team will win their fair share of tough battles, and they'll rattle off a 10 win season.
Final Notes
As I'm writing this, it was just announced that star LB Matt Milano will be missing most of the regular season with a torn bicep. This will give rookie Edefuan Ulofoshio, someone who I didn't scout until after the draft, a chance to show off his coverage chops and physicality. I'm not sure he'll start before the midway point of the season, but he could be leaned on in specific scenarios until earning a starting role.
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