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It finally feels like this Chicago team is starting to put it all together. The offense is filled out, the defense is young, but effective, and they have some decent coaches in place to get the most out of their players.
Will they finally make playoffs for the first time since 2020? Let's see if my 17th ranked team has what it takes.
Photo: Jacob Funk/Chicago Bears
Strengths
Strong Receiver Core
Underrated Defense
Monster RB Committee
The Bears have plenty of options at their disposal to stress out defenses. DJ Moore returns as the WR1 for 2024, Keenan Allen was added via free agency to dominate out of the slot, and Rome Odunze was taken in the top 10 to be their future X receiver. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett also add some juice as tight ends, and D'Andre Swift will be a nice asset out of the backfield. This receiving core is as complete as it comes.
I have two defensive aspects set as weaknesses, but this defense was one of the best down the stretch in 2023. From Week 11 to 18, they finished 10th with 341.1 total yards and 100.1 rush yards allowed per game, 2nd with 17.7 points allowed per game, and 1st with 16 interceptions. They're led by Jaylon Johnson, Montez Sweat, and TJ Edwards, and are assisted by plenty of solid pieces around them.
D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson has to be one of the best RBCs in the league. Swift came alive in the Eagles run game, which had plenty of faults in the back half of the season. He averaged 4.63 yards per carry in the last seven games last season, which was when the Eagles offense spun out. D'Andre will obviously get the bulk of the carries, but Khalil and Roschon can add sparks when they get their chances. In those same final seven games, they each posted 4.19 and 4.30 yards per carry, as well as 2.69 and 2.60 yards after contact per carry respectively.
Weaknesses
Pass Rush
Interior Offensive Line
Suspect Secondary
This defense had one of the worst pass rush units in 2023. They ranked dead last with a 59.1 pass rush grade, but adding Montez Sweat did give them a nice lift, as four of their five best pass rush grades came between Weeks 11 and 15. Once he was added, DeMarcus Walker and Gervon Dexter Sr saw their pressure rates improve from 9.05% and 6.92% to 11.52% and 13.42% respectively. Despite these improvements, I'm doubtful they'll put it together over the course of a full season.
Teven Jenkins is great when healthy, but he's bound to miss at least four games a season. Nate Davis struggled last season, as he posted a 52.9 overall blocking grade, and Ryan Bates - the projected starter at center, was a backup in Buffalo all of 2023. The backups won't threaten any significant playing time, but rookie Kiran Amegadije may move from tackle to guard - and may end up starting if he can translate his dominance to the NFL.
Jaylon Johnson was one of the best corners in the league last season. His 91.0 coverage grade ranked 1st among all CBs, and he forced incompletions on 18% of targets that came his way. Outside of him, it becomes a wild card. Tyrique Stevenson had an awesome box score as a rookie, as he had 4 INTs and 13 pass breakups, but he allowed 836 yards and 9 TDs - and posted a 59.1 coverage grade. Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard III should be a decent safety duo, but Kevin's age is definitely a concern. I'll speak a bit on Kyler Gordon later on.
Key Additions
Caleb Williams - Quarterback
Rome Odunze - Wide Receiver
Austin Booker - Edge Defender
As I've stated in plenty of blogs, I wanted Justin Fields to succeed. He's struggled to prove he can be a starter-level QB in this league, and the Bears rightfully brought in Caleb as a result. He does everything Fields does, but at a higher level and with better processing. He has better pocket mobility, can read defenses more efficiently, and he gets rid of the ball quickly if he has someone open. His biggest hang-up will be overcoming his "hero ball" play style.
Rome was my 2nd ranked WR and 3rd overall player in this class. The fact the Bears got him at 9th overall was a steal and a half. He may not get many targets in his first couple of years, but he'll find his way to being the WR1 on this team for the next decade. He's got superb route running, great hands, and is one of the best high-pointers in this class. He and Caleb are gonna have an unreal connection for years to come.
I was pretty high on the young edge out of Kansas. He has shades of Maxx Crosby when it comes to pass rushing, and even though he isn't the best athlete, he was constantly flying to the football. In a defense that doesn't have a true pass rush threat opposite Montez Sweat, Booker could find his way onto the field as a designated pass rusher early on in his career.
Dark Horse
Kyler Gordon - Nickelback
Kyler took a big jump in his sophomore campaign, as he improved his overall defensive grade from a 49.8 to a 65.6, and his coverage grade from a 46.4 to a 68.2. He ranked 20th out of all slot defenders by allowed just .99 yards per slot coverage snap. He also added 2 INTs and 3 pass deflections - while adding 9 stops + TFLs and posting a 6.7% missed tackle rate on top of that. If he continues to improve, he can be one of the best slot defenders in the league.
Photo: Jamie Sabau/USA TODAY Sports
Record
8-9
I think the Bears are better than last year, but this schedule has minimal favorable matchups. They should get wins against the Panthers, Commanders, and Patriots, while also picking up a few divisional wins. Everything else is a toss up, or against heavily favored teams. They fall a little short of their win ceiling of 10, but 8-9 is still solid for a team that's about another year away from being a playoff threat.
Final Notes
This season really depends on how well Caleb transitions to the NFL. This team went 7-10 a year ago with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent, so if Caleb doesn't play any better than that, that's their floor. I do think he'll struggle a bit out the gate, but he should finish strong and move onto a great sophomore season.
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