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Kneecaps have been bitten since Dan Campbell took over in 2021, but the Lions have failed to eat the whole leg yet. After a deep postseason run last year, and adding multiple playmakers in key spots this offseason, this team is ready to take themselves to the Super Bowl.
But did they do enough to ensure a victory when they get there? Let's see how my 3rd-ranked team continues to instill this violent and physical culture.
Photo: Perry Knots/GettyImages
Strengths
Top 3 Offensive Line
Vastly Improved Secondary
Team-Wide Scheme Fits
When Dan was building this team, he put a heavy emphasis on improving the OL. Since he's been at the helm, the Lions have rose from the 13th ranked OL in the league to the 2nd best in the NFL. They also added Kevin Zeitler this offseason, who is a short-term upgrade over Jonah Jackson. They're headlined by Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell, two tyrants who are ranked in the top 3 for their positions respectively.
The two most glaring issues for the Lions last season were their pass rush and their coverage. They threw nearly every resource at improving their cornerback room, which welcomed in Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, Terrion Arnold, and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. They also return star Brian Branch who will split time as a nickel and box safety, as well as Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu, who both played about half of their snaps over the top and near the LOS. Ifeatu was a pleasant surprise at the end of last season, as he generated an 83.8 overall defensive grade through the last 5 games of 2023, which tied for 4th among all safeties.
The Lions have some great players in Aidan Hutchison, Penei Sewell, Brian Branch, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Frank Ragnow, Jared Goff, and Sam LaPorta. But where this team separates itself from the rest is how well they added talent to fit their schemes. Dan emphasizes physicality and "playing big" within his offense, so they've added and utilized players who play larger than their size in Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Kalif Raymond. On the defensive side of the ball, they want smart, instinctual athletes who can play a variety of roles, and studs like Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, Alim McNeil, and Kerby Joseph fit that bill to a tee. Now that this team is near their peak, they should have minimal holes on both offense and defense.
Weaknesses
Defensive Line Depth
Wide Receiver Room
Offensive Line Backups
The Lions have seriously lacked in pass rush over the past few years, and they don't have the depth to bring constant pressure all game long. Marcus Davenport is in a prove-it year - as he's yet to do anything significant in his young career, Josh Paschal has yet to get going as a pro, as he's missed 13 games in his first two seasons, and the rest of the backups either get a good amount of snaps and struggle in pass rush, or do well at generating pressure, but don't see the field often.
Out of the top 10 teams, the Lions may have the weakest WR room, and that's saying something given the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs are in this group. Amon-Ra is fantastic in his own right, but it gets suspect after that. Jameson Williams has yet to put together a full season, and hasn't done much in the time he's gotten outside of some gadget plays, Kalif Raymond is a solid athlete, but hasn't put up more than 2.1 yards per route ran in the past three years, and the rest of the room is made up of specific role players. Shoutout Tom Kennedy though, breakout year incoming.
This OL is one of the best in the league, but the backups are a bit concerning. Dan Skipper can play either guard or tackle, and has been productive in the minimal time he's had. Past him, Colby Sorsdal, Michael Niese, and Kayode Awosika are either unproven or outright bad. I like Christian Mahogany, and thought he was a steal in the 6th round, and Giovanni Manu is an interesting prospect out of Canada, so they could provide some life there if they develop quickly.
Key Additions
DJ Reader - Interior Defensive Lineman
Terrion Arnold - Cornerback
Carlton Davis III - Cornerback
Just a few seasons back, DJ Reader was one of the best and most underappreciated interior defenders in the league. He plays about 20% of his snaps as a true nose tackle, which is an area the Lions desperately needed help with. Over the past three years, he's put up a 9.21% pressure rate, 64 stops + TFLs, and recorded an 80+ defensive grade in all three seasons, all while playing just over 1,500 snaps in that time. He has battled his fair share of minor injuries since the 2020 season passed, and he looks to play a fully healthy season in 2024.
The Lions needed to nail their first round pick, and having Terrion Arnold fall to the 24th overall spot gave them enough confidence to trade up and snag him. He was one of the most physical corners in this class, and he shines in both man and zone coverage. Although he wasn't my top corner, he was incredibly close to taking the CB1 spot from Quinyon Mitchell.
Before adding Terrion, the Lions traded for Carlton in the hopes of restoring this secondary. 2023 was his worst season of his NFL career, as he posted a 58.2 defensive grade and a 57.5 coverage grade, both career lows. He also allowed 15.2 yards per reception, a 64.6% reception rate, and 269 yards after catch, all of which were the worst marks of his career. To that end, I believe this was a hiccup in an otherwise solid career, and he should get back to his starting-caliber play in a new system.
Dark Horse
Alim McNeil - Interior Defensive Lineman
Alim has improved every year he's been in the league, and his 4th season should be his best yet. He's improved as a pass rusher and run stopper in each campaign, by improving his pressure rate from 5.66% to 9.77%, his stop rate from 3.08% to 3.40%, and his overall defensive grade from 60.1 to 88.5 from his rookie year to his third season for each metric. Now he'll be paired up with DJ Reader, who will help take on more attention to free up Alim in a potential breakout year.
Photo: Paul Sancya/Associated Press
Record
13-4
The Lions own the top record for 2024! They open their season with a chance to go on a 7-0 run, as they take on the Rams, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Cowboys, Vikings, and Titans. From there, they hit a slate of tough opponents in the Packers, Texans, Jaguars, and Colts. To end the year, they play the Bears twice, the Packers and Vikings again, and the Bills and 49ers. I think they may skid mid-year and drop three contests in a five game window, but I have a feeling they'll finish the year strong and take home the top record of 2024.
Final Notes
This may be the best team the Lions have ever fielded, and are much improved from their NFC Championship collapse. If Jared Goff can put together another great season, the Lions should have a high chance at making a Super Bowl run.
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