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Just when we thought Green Bay would have a legit rebuilding year, they surprised nearly everyone and were close to making a deep playoff push. Jordan Love was great once he got comfortable, their young receivers kept defenses worried, and some inexperienced defenders shined late in the season.
They added much needed pieces this offseason, but will it be enough to push them further than last year? Let's see if my 8th-ranked team made enough improvements to set this team up to win the NFC North.
Photo: Mark Hoffman/USA TODAY Sports
Strengths
Deep Offensive Skill Positions
Defensive Line Room
Youngest Team in NFL
If you look at any position on the offensive side of the ball, they have some solid depth. They have about five wide receivers, three running backs, and two tight ends who either played significant snaps in 2023, or are slated to get plenty of reps in 2024. All of them have been productive for multiple games in a season, and you can bet Matt LaFleur is going to get them all involved throughout this campaign.
On the flip side, this defensive front is deep as well. Edges Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, and Kingsley Enagbare - and interior defenders Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, Karl Brooks, and TJ Slaton, all played over 350 snaps, and each of them had their fair share of impactful plays among them. None of them posted a defensive grade lower than a 62 (with five of them above a 65), and five of those eight posted a 68+ pass rush mark. Rashan and Kenny may headline these stout defenders, but the supporting pieces around them don't get nearly as much credit as they should.
Usually being the youngest team doesn't spell well for success, but even at 25.2 years old, this Packers team can do some serious damage. They have some solid experience among their vets in Elgton Jenkins, Josh Jacobs, Jaire Alexander, and Xavier McKinney, but their young guns are just as effective. Jordan Love, despite being raw, has developed quickly, and his weapons are right in step with him, which - surprisingly, makes this team one of the more dangerous ones coming into 2024.
Weaknesses
Offensive Line Depth
No True WR1
Secondary Backups
On paper, this OL has some decent pieces. Looking a bit closer, this unit can go from good to bad in a heartbeat. Besides Josh Myers, all of their starters are quite underrated in my opinion - and even though Jordan Morgan wasn't my favorite tackle prospect, he tracks very nicely as a guard. After that, the backups are underwhelming at best. Royce Newman and Sean Rhyan are vets in this system, but neither have posted a blocking grade above 58 in their young careers. Andre Dillard is averaging 255 snaps played a season thanks to various injuries and poor performances, and rookie Jacob Monk never posted a season blocking grade above 70 in five years of college football.
I love this receiver group, and they all bring differing skillsets to this offense, but none of them are a true WR1 threat. They all thrive off mismatches set up within the offense, but if any of them are asked to step up and go toe-to-toe with their opponents' best DB, I doubt they'd be able to be a reliable option. It isn't the worst problem in the world, but if two or more of the receiving options go down, this offense will have a tough time being highly functional through the air.
This pass defense scraped by last season after losing starters to injuries for multiple games. With the revamped safety room and this CB room getting healthier, the starters look primed to do some damage. When it comes to their backups, I'm worried they'll be any better than last season. Evan Williams and Kitan Oladipo are rookies who are developmental pieces, and the CB backups didn't shine in the playing time they got last year. For what it's worth, Kalen King was looking like a top 15 pick before his lackluster senior season, so if he can get back to form, he'll be a great addition to this secondary.
Key Additions
Xavier McKinney - Safety
Javon Bullard - Safety
Jeff Hafley - Defensive Coordinator
The Packers lacked firepower at the safety position last year, so it only made sense they got one of the best at that spot this offseason. Xavier McKinney was one of the few defenders to play 100% of their teams' snaps in 2023, and he was damn good throughout the year. He exceled no matter where he was lined up, as his 87.5 overall defensive grade ranked in the top 8 among all DBs, and his 91.2 coverage grade was the best in the entire NFL for players with more than 10 coverage snaps. He added 26 stops + TFLs, 6 INTs + pass breakups, and just 8.7 yards per reception.
To help out on the other side of the defense, Green Bay added Javon Bullard through the draft, who ranked out as my 3rd best free safety and 7th best safety overall. He has some impressive tape, with his range, run defense, and ball skills being his best attributes. He'll add much needed physicality to the safety position.
Goodbye Joe Barry, hello Jeff Hafley! After years of grueling defensive play-calling and performances, the Packers hired one of the most sound defensive coordinators available. Jeff ran a near perfect split of man and zone coverage, and was just about average when it came to blitz rate. He's got a great sense of when and how to get added pressure on the QB, and when to be more conservative - something this defense greatly lacked for the past several years.
Dark Horse
Dontayvion Wicks - Wide Receiver
As of right now, Wicks is listed as the 4th receiver on the Packers depth chart. By midseason, I believe he'll win a starting slot role and will be playing over 50% of snaps. I mentioned Wicks as a sleeper in my Fantasy Football Outlook, but I wanna break him down a bit further here. From a grades standpoint, he never recorded a receiving grade below 63 when he ran 15 routes or more per game from Week 8 onward, and he posted a 74+ receiving grade in five of those nine contests. In that same stretch, he averaged 2.59 yards per route ran, which tied for 9th among all NFL players in that span. He also ranked 15th with 5.8 YAC per reception, and 16th with 15.1 yards per reception in the same slate of games.
Photo: Evan Siegle/Green Bay Packers
Record
11-6
The Packers schedule is pretty balanced through the first half, as they play the Eagles, Colts, Titans, and Vikings through the first four matchups, then the Rams, Cardinals, Texans, and Jaguars through the next four. They have some tough competition through the back half of the season, where they play the Lions twice, as well as the 49ers and Dolphins, but they'll play those two contests at home. They should pick up another set of wins against the Seahawks, Vikings, and Saints, and at least one win against the Bears. I think 12 wins is their ceiling, so they'll fall just a game short of that, which is still impressive given how young this roster is.
Final Notes
Jordan Love absolutely turned it on in the second half of 2023. From Week 9 to Week 18, he had the 2nd largest positive difference in big time throw rate and turnover worthy play rate (+4.6%), and he had the 2nd highest passing grade (90.9), trailing only Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy respectively. If he can build on that success, there's no reason why he won't be a consensus top 10 QB by the end of this year.
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