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DUUUUVAAAAL!!!
The Jags looked pretty good heading into the final 6 games of 2023, as they were on a 17-5 stretch dating back to 2022. The wheels came off as they crashed and burned in a 1-5 finish, falling just short of the playoffs. They went back in the lab, made some solid offseason moves, and look to be a threat in the AFC South.
Will they win the division, or fall short again? My 12th-ranked team has high hopes for 2024.
Photo: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Strengths
Strong Offensive Skill Core
Deep Defensive Line
Top 5 Linebacker Tandem
The makeup of this offense is balanced to near perfection. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram return as consistent slot and tight end options respectively, while Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr were added to be deep threat and "WR1" options respectively. They also have Devin Duvernay and Parker Washington on deck to step in when needed, and this RB room is put together nicely. Travis Etienne Jr looks to have another great year, and he's backed up by two serviceable backs in D'Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby. Put that all together, along with Trevor Lawrence, and this offense could be lethal.
Similarly, this defensive line is filled with different skillsets that can be effective if deployed correctly. Josh Hines-Allen has become one of the best pass rushers in the league, and Travon Walker hopes to finally live up to the first round hype. Trevis Gipson will get his reps, and has been just fine as a pass rusher. On the interior, Arik Armstead joins the roster to elevate this pass rush, with DaVon Hamilton being a run stopping menace (pre-injury). Add in veteran Roy Robertson-Harris, and 2nd round rookie Maason Smith, and this looks to be one of the deepest rotations in the league.
Foyesade Oluokun has proven he's more than a tackle merchant, and Devin Lloyd played up to his first round billing in his second season. Both ranked in top 20 for overall defensive grade for starting LBs, and this unit trailed only the Jets in terms of LB duos. These two compliment each other's playstyles at a high level, and should put the league on notice in 2024.
Weaknesses
Offensive Line Depth
Cornerback Backups
No Clear Cut WR1
I'm not overly fond of this OL as it stands, and if any one of the starters goes down, they'll be in for a rude awakening. Sure, Tyler Shatley and Walker Little have experience, but it hasn't been pretty when they step on the field - and I didn't dig Javon Foster as a prospect either. As for the starters, Ezra Cleveland struggled after being traded to Duval, as he posted just two games above a 60 overall blocking grade. Anton Harrison was somewhat disappointing as a rookie, but did okay in pass pro as he allowed 1 pressure on every 25 pass block snaps. Brandon Scherff, Mitch Morse, and Cam Robinson have done more than enough to prove they are solid players overall.
Much like the OL depth, the CB position is lacking depth as well. Tyson Campbell is a top-10 corner in the league, and Ronald Darby is a serviceable veteran, but it's uncertain who will be CB3 after that. Jarrian Jones was drafted to be a nickel, and Montaric Brown was the Jags worst coverage corner last year with a 54.5 mark. De'Antre Prince, one of their 5th round selections, was productive at Ole Miss and should find his way onto the field.
I know I said BTJ is going to play the WR1 role, and that's the role he played at LSU, but he needs to prove he can do that at the NFL level. Outside of him, Gabe Davis has proven he can be a decent WR2, and Kirk is too good out of the slot to move him elsewhere. I think BTJ will eventually grow into a WR1, but it may not be for a few seasons.
Key Additions
Mitch Morse - Center
Brian Thomas Jr - Wide Receiver
Arik Armstead - Interior Defensive Lineman
This Jags run game was one of the worst in the league, with Luke Fortner struggling heavily as a run blocker. He had the lowest run block grade of all starting centers with a 40.0 mark, with the next closest center posting a 50.7. Mitch Morse is just above average in that area, with a 62.0 grade, but his pass blocking is the real difference maker. He generated a 74.0 pass block grade, 6th highest among starting centers, and allowed 1 pressure on every 25 pass block snaps. He's cemented himself as one of the most reliable centers in the league, which was much needed in Jacksonville.
I spoke about BTJ and his ability to become a WR1 earlier, and he absolutely has the traits to become one. The targets may not be there early in his career, but between his speed, clean route running, ability to stack defenders and track deep throws, and win jump balls, are all paramount to becoming a teams' top option. He's got the skills to do it, now we just need to see it happen.
Arik Armstead is a massive addition to this defensive front, as this unit struggled immensely last season. DaVon Hamilton was great in 2022, but after a non-specific back sidelined him for the first 7 games, you could see he wasn't himself. The rest of the interior defenders weren't much better, even when healthy, which forced the Jags' hand to snag Arik from the 49ers. He played through a torn meniscus through the end of the year and into playoffs, and was still as dominant as ever. He posted an 81.9 overall defensive grade, as well as an 85.1 pass rush grade, both impressive marks at this stage in his career. If his recovery goes well, he'll be dominant once again.
Dark Horse
Antonio Johnson - Defensive Back
Antonio was one of "my guys" in the 2022 draft, as he played the nickel position with a ton of fire and aggression. He's currently listed as a starting safety on the Jags depth chart, but he'll likely be in the box for most of his snaps. He played just 172 snaps as a rookie, but was productive on those reps. He recorded 6 stops + TFLs on just 63 run defense snaps, as well as 2 INTs in coverage. He also allowed just 10 receptions for 76 yards on 101 coverage snaps, making him one of the most efficient pass defenders across the entire league.
Photo: Bob Self/Florida Times-Union
Record
10-7
The Jags have a brutal start to their schedule, as they take on the Dolphins, Browns, Bills, and Texans in their first four games. They also play the Packers, Eagles, and Lions within a four game stretch. If they can escape those two stretches with three total wins, I feel really optimistic about the rest of their schedule. It won't be easy, but Jacksonville has made enough improvements to add an extra win and get into the playoffs.
Final Notes
Trevor Lawrence has been slandered this entire offseason, and I believe it's completely unjustified. Throw out his rookie year since he worked with arguably the worst coach in NFL history. Since then, he's been brought down by his supporting cast. I'm usually not wild about EPA metrics (expected points added), but Trevor had the most EPA lost to dropped passes in 2023, at an astonishing -37.8 mark across the entire season. Below is a video of some of those drops and how crucial they were:
Video: Ian Hartitz/Twitter (X)
Safe to say, the Jags may have won a couple of more games if half of those catches are made. I'm tired on the Trevor hate; he's a damn good QB who finally has the guys in place to bring out the best in him.
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