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31 teams down, 1 to go. To no one's surprise, the Chiefs are my top ranked team for 2024. Two straight Super Bowl wins, improvements up and down the roster, and Mahomes is still Mahomes. It doesn't get much better if you're an Arrowhead faithful.
Did they do enough this offseason to ensure a three-peat? For the last time this series, let's see how my top ranked team looks to dismantle the rest of the NFL once again.
Photo: Ryan Kang/GettyImages
Strengths
Patrick Mahomes
Interior Offensive Line
Steve Spagnuolo
Mahomes is the clear cut QB1 in the NFL, and should be for the next decade. He does everything you want a modern day QB to do: he's got a big arm to take shots, the skill to take the dink and dunk passes when he has to, and the athleticism to create plays when the pocket gets murky. Despite being pressured more than nearly any other QB in the last four years, he has a wildly low 10.99% pressure to sack rate. Out of the consensus top 5 QBs (Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert), only Allen and Lamar have been pressured more often, with Allen registering an 11.55% P2S rate, while Lamar has a 19.41% P2S rate. Mahomes is truly in a league of his own.
To help Mahomes navigate pressure off the edges, this interior OL group holds up nearly every rusher they see. Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trey Smith make up the best interior group in the league, with all of them being maulers in the run game and stonewalls in the pass game. Of the 169 pressures credited to the OL in 2023, only 83 were blamed on the big guys inside, meaning more than half of the Chiefs allowed pressures came off the edges. These three were also the best run blockers on the team, with Creed, Trey, and Thuney churning out 77.5, 74.0, and 66.1 grades respectively in that area.
Steve Spagnuolo might be one of the most underappreciated coordinators in the NFL. He is constantly innovating his defense to evolve with the modern offensive styles. One of my favorite calls from him was against the Dolphins, when he ran a "Spinner Cover 2" look shown here:
Source: NFL Pro
He also is masterful at scheming blitzes and knowing when to call them. Here's a crucial one from their past Super Bowl:
Source: Coach Dan Casey/Twitter (X)
He's a magician at putting his players in the right places at the right time, and is a big reason why they've been incredible on a per down basis over the past three seasons.
Weaknesses
Cornerback Room
Defensive Line
Wide Receiver Room Stability
Outside of Trent McDuffie, who is quickly becoming one of the best corners in the league, this room is thin. Chamarri Conner was solid as a rookie, but he'll be asked to play a full-time nickel role, where he allowed 1.59 yards per coverage snap - which ranked in the bottom quarter for slot defenders. Jaylen Watson allowed 253 yards and 5 TDs on 44 targets last year, while only forcing 6 incompletions, Joshua Williams was improved, but still had an up and down sophomore campaign, and Nazeeh Johnson has yet to play an NFL snap in two seasons.
Chris Jones and George Karlaftis highlight this DL, but it'll take more than just those two to continue this defensive dominance. Mike Danna just got a significant extension done, but he's yet to post a pressure rate above 11.3% in a season, and has a career pressure rate of 8.77%, Derrick Nnadi has been replaceable for the past three years, as he scored two sub-42 defensive grades over the past two seasons, and former first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah failed to be effective in the run or pass on the minimal opportunities he's gotten. If none of these three step up, this unit could be picked on more than they're used to.
The Chiefs WR group was a joke last year, and this year may be no different in terms of headaches caused. Rashee Rice has some legal issues that may impact his availability late in the season, Hollywood Brown has dealt with an injury bug over the last two years - and sustained a shoulder injury during camp, Xavier Worthy needs to prove he can be a go-getter early in his career, and the backups are as bland as they get. JuJu Smith-Schuster returns to provide depth if he can stay healthy, Skyy Moore has failed to pan out as a threat he was made out to be, and Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman are used in incredibly specific scenarios that have no impact on a snap-to-snap basis.
Key Additions
Hollywood Brown - Wide Receiver
Xavier Worthy - Wide Receiver
Jared Wiley - Tight End
If Hollywood can stay healthy, the Chiefs have a legit deep threat who can stretch the field when needed. He's yet to find a rhythm since entering the league, but Brown has shown flashes that he can can a high-end WR2 in the right system. With another speed-demon on the other side of the offense, it'll be tough for defenses to account for both Hollywood and Xavier Worthy.
Speaking of Worthy, he brings a nuance as a route runner than Hollywood doesn't possess. Xavier will most likely play the X role in this offense, and he's put that on display throughout the preseason. Although he struggles running the entire route tree at a high-level, he does particularly well on in-breaking routes, which this offense thrives on. Mahomes will get the most out of Worthy's skillset, and he will be a future top option on this team.
It's not often I list a backup as a key addition, but from a play style standpoint, Jared is the clear successor to Travis Kelce. Both thrive when split off the ball or lined up in an H-back position, and both are good route runners who know how to find spaces in the defense. I don't think Wiley will ever reach the heights of Kelce, but he will be a damn good weapon for them once Travis retires.
Dark Horse
Leo Chenal - Linebacker/Edge Defender
As much I don't trust the Chiefs DL to be dominant, moving Leo to edge and bumping Karlaftis inside in pass rush situations would get the most out of this unit. He's a great run defender, as he posted 29 stops on just 232 run defense snaps, and he can get after the QB, as he posted a 22.73% pressure rate on just 66 pass rushes. He's a great Swiss army knife within this defense, and this should be the year he breaks out as the next Chiefs star.
Photo: Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports
Record
12-5
As long as this team has Mahomes, they're going to finish as a top-3 seed in the AFC and have one of the better records in the league. They don't take my top spot record-wise, but if they win the majority of their division matchups, and win most of the gimme games, this team should be great once again. The contests I see giving them trouble are their opener against the Ravens, a mid-season Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers, and a road contest against the Bills. Other than that, I can see the Chiefs maybe dropping tough games against the Browns and Texans, and they may lose a gimme game against the Falcons. I think 12-5 is right between their ceiling and floor, giving them another solid season.
Final Notes
That's a wrap! Later this week, I'll be dropping my NFL 2024 Preview, where I release the full and adjusted Power Rankings based on final rosters and new injuries, breakdown my picks for major award winners, predict Week 1 Fantasy Football Boomers and Busters, and I select the game winners of each game in Week 1. Can't wait for another great NFL season!
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