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Things have gone downhill for the Chargers since they blew a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in the 2022-23 Wild Card Round. The defense has let this team down ever since, with 5 loss in 8 games with a healthy Herbert by just one possession. They've lacked a running game as well, and they rightfully finished dead last in their division in 2023.
Where does that leave us for 2024? See how my 27th ranked team fares heading into next season.
Photo: Billie Weiss/GettyImages
Strengths
Justin Herbert
Strong Offensive Minded Head Coach
Great Offensive Tackle Duo
Roast me, Justin Herbert is a top 5 QB in the NFL. He has constantly overperformed a poorly constructed roster, despite some of the big names they've had in his career, and he has pushed this team into the playoffs in spite of some horrific coaching. Below is a chart of a metric created by EJ Snyder and Arjun Menon called Quarterback Support Score (or QBS for short), where Justin Herbert had the 3rd highest differential in QBS and EPA/Play percentile.
If that isn't enough to convince you, then this next metric may paint a clearer picture. Below is the average ranks of "QB Support", based on various measurables via PFF.
The Chargers ranked in the bottom five overall in SCR throughout Herbert's career - and they ranked in the bottom eight overall in three of the past four individual years as well. Herbert also ranks in the top 5 for most passing yards, passing yards per game, passing touchdowns, and lowest INT rate since he entered the league in 2020. He's a dawg, and I'm done with people pretending like he's not.
To get the most out of him, the Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh, who most recently won a College Football Playoff title with the Michigan Wolverines. Despite Kellen Moore having a sound offensive scheme, it didn't cater to Herbert's skillset the way Jim's will. Herbert won't be asked to throw the ball nearly 40 times a game like he has his entire career, which should help him be more efficient.
On top of that, they drafted Joe Alt, the best offensive line prospect in this past draft class, and the Chargers will anchor him opposite Rashawn Slater, who is quickly becoming one of the best tackles in the league. Having those bookend monsters hold down the edges will make Herbert's life much easier.
Weaknesses
No Real Receiving Threats
Interior Offensive Line
Interior Defensive Line
Unless Quentin Johnston does a 180 from his rookie year, Joshua Palmer becomes a certified WR1, and/or Ladd McConkey can dominate out of the slot in his first pro season, this WR room might be one of the worst in the league. The tight ends aren't anything to write home about either, as Will Dissly hasn't been consistent or healthy, and Hayden Hurst has never lived up to his first round selection value.
Out of the three projected starters on the Chargers interior OL, all of them have put out a replaceable level of play throughout their careers. When lined up at guard, Jamaree Salyer and Zion Johnson have never posted a blocking grade higher than 62.2, and Bradley Bozeman has put up just one season higher than a 64.0 blocking grade, and that was back in 2021 when he was sandwiched between Kevin Zeitler and Ben Powers.
On the opposite side of the trenches, the grouping of Morgan Fox, Poona Ford, and Otito Ogbonnia is pretty underwhelming. Over the past two seasons, the trio has been below average relative the rest of the league, with Poona's 59.3 overall defensive grade in 2023 being the highest mark of them. Additionally, their pass rush is just above average, with the three combining for a 9.56% pressure rate, with Fox accounting for a good chunk of that with more than half the pressures and an 11.17% rate. I don't think rookie Justin Eboigbe will challenge any of them for significant playing time either, as he was middle of the road in my interior defensive linemen rankings, and graded out as the 131st overall player in this class.
Key Additions
Jim Harbaugh - Head Coach
Joe Alt - Offensive Tackle
Ladd McConkey - Wide Receiver
I mentioned Jim and Herbert as a great pairing earlier, and Jim's selling point is running the ball more than any other coach. During his time as the 49ers play-caller, he ranked in the top 3 in run rate from 2011 to 2013, and ranked 7th in his final year in 2014. At Michigan, he posted a rushing rate of over 58% in almost every season, with 2015 and 2019 punching out at just over 53% in both years, and 2020 being his only season below 50%. This will take pressure off Herbert and allow this offense to develop organically.
Joe Alt is a fantastic addition to an OL that has been terrible the past several seasons. In his college career, Alt allowed just 17 pressures and 3 sacks on 993 pass blocking snaps - this checks out to a 1.71% pressure allowed rate. He was a nasty run blocker as well, where he posted 90.8 and 86.6 run block grades in his final two college seasons.
I know I ragged on the WR room earlier, but Ladd will be a solid security blanket for Herbert. He'll be limited to the slot, but he should thrive there given he is the best and most advanced route runner from the past draft class; and he's probably the best on this roster. He may not pop off from game to game, but he'll be a reliable and consistent piece on this team for years to come.
Dark Horse
Cam Hart - Cornerback
There were a few ways I could've gone with this. Tuli Tuipulotu was great in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack's absence, Junior Colson tracks nicely as the starting Mike LB on this defense, and Kimani Vidal has a solid chance to lead the team in carries. I ultimately settled on Cam Hart for multiple reasons.
In a loaded CB class, he was my 7th highest rated cornerback, and 11th overall defensive back, in this entire class. He has great size and athleticism, as he measured out at 6'3" and 202 pounds, while posting an elite 9.00 RAS. His raw production wasn't great, as he had 11 INTs and PBUs combined over his final three seasons, but he did post an 84.2 coverage grade in 2023, the best of his career. I think he'll give Kristian Fulton a run for his money to start, and it may work out that Asante Samuel Jr will bump into the slot, giving the Chargers a nice tandem between Fulton and Hart on the outside.
Record
6-11
Despite my love for Herbert and the pass defense, I don't think this roster is playoff ready just yet. There are multiple holes on offense, and this run defense will be pretty abysmal as well. They should get some easy wins early, but they'll play a loaded AFC North, as well as some high powered rushing offenses in the Falcons, Cardinals, and Patriots (a lofty projection, but a sound one).
They should win at least two or three of their divisional matchups, and they should win most of their contests against the Panthers, Broncos, and Titans, but those should be close games. I think their ceiling is 8 wins, so they fall a little short of that.
Photo: Ashley Landis/Associated Press
Final Notes
It'll be interesting to see how the Chargers attack the 2025 offseason, as we have another loaded OL and WR class incoming. They'll most likely part ways with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, as Mack is slated to be a free agent, and the Chargers would save over $25 million in cap if they cut Bosa heading into next year. I think this season won't bode well for them, so it should make their roster decisions in March much easier than most teams.
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