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Miami has been on an upswing since hiring Mike McDaniel and signing Tyreek Hill in 2022. They've made back-to-back playoff appearances, and have had one of the best offenses in that same stretch. If not for multiple injuries to both the offensive line and the defense, this team could've done some damage over the past two years.
Are playoffs attainable for a third year in a row? Let's see if my 14th-ranked team has what it takes to make the cut.
Photo: Gary A Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Strengths
Tyreek Hill
Deep Secondary
Three Headed Rushing Attack
Before injuries to Tua in 2022 and to Tyreek himself on the tail end of 2023, he was on pace to nearly break NFL receiving records in both years. In the 23 games that Tua and Tyreek have been fully healthy together, he's posted 171 receptions, 2,696 yards, 19 TDs, and a wild 3.90 yards per route ran. Tyreek has ran 1,005 routes in his two seasons in Miami, so let's round down to 500 per season. If he ran 500 routes, and achieved that same efficiency, he'd put up 1,950 receiving yards, which would fall just short of Calvin Johnson's record of 1,964 yards. With that, however, if Tyreek ran 770 routes like Calvin did in that historic 2012 season, he would finish with a whopping 3,003 yards!!! Tyreek's efficiency is absolutely incredible and needs to be talked about more.
This Miami secondary looks as feisty as ever, as it boasts five good corners and three solid safeties. Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller will be a great tandem, with Cam Smith and Nik Needham waiting in the wings for dime sets. Kader Kohou commands the nickel spot for a third straight season, and hopes to get back to his dominant ways that we saw during his rookie season. Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer will lockdown the top of this defense, and Marcus Maye is a wily veteran who can plug and play at either safety spot.
Do you play running back and can run a sub 4.4 40 yard dash? Then the Dolphins are just the team for you! They feature veteran Raheem Mostert, 2nd year sensation De'Von Achane, and rookie Jaylen Wright. With Mostert potentially getting cut or retiring after this season, finding his replacement made sense. For the next several seasons - at the least, they'll be able to lean on Achane and Wright as their main ballcarriers in this wide zone offense.
Weaknesses
Interior Offensive Line
Backup WRs
Linebacker Core
Losing Robert Hunt and Connor Williams in the same offseason is a tough blow for Miami, and I don't think they did enough to make up for that. Isaiah Wynn has had his fair share of injuries over the past several years, Robert Jones has been just fine when asked to step up as a starter, and Aaron Brewer has put together one good season in the three he's played over 500 snaps in. You can live with one guy being okay along the offensive front, but not your three interior starters. The depth isn't promising either, making this a highly questionable unit going into 2024.
Braxton Berrios, River Cracraft, and Erik Ezukanma are all replaceable level receivers. With the signing of OBJ, those three should rarely see the field, and there's a chance all three of them are cut heading into this season. To boot, the Phins spent 6th and 7th round picks on Malik Washington and Tahj Washington. I'd say they'll both be good in backup roles, but neither have yet to take an NFL snap, so the jury is out until we see production from them.
David Long Jr is, without a doubt, one of the best run stopping linebackers in the league. He's posted 89 and 93.4 grades in that area over the past two years, but he's an absolute liability in coverage. His eyes seemed lost on almost every zone drop a season ago, and that was reflected with a 37.5 coverage grade - which was the lowest of all LBs with more than 200 coverage snaps. Jordyn Brooks isn't much better, as 2023 was the first year he posted a coverage grade higher than 44. For what it's worth, Anthony Walker and Duke Riley could plug in as the coverage backers, with both posting a 70 plus grades there in 2023.
Key Additions
Chop Robinson - Edge Defender
Jordan Poyer - Safety
Kendall Fuller - Cornerback
Chop was my 2nd favorite edge in this class. He's got great twitchiness and lighting fast get off speed, plus he knows how to leverage his body and work his hands. With plenty of injuries to go around with this edge rushing group, drafting Chop in the first was much needed.
Jordan has been one of the top safeties in the league over the past half decade. He is up there in age, but his instincts for the position are as alive as ever. He's posted 70+ coverage grades in every season since 2017, and has put up a 68+ run defense grade in four of the past five years. He played more in the box in 2023 than at any point in his stellar career, and proved he is good enough to make the transition.
Fuller was another welcome addition to this secondary, as he's also been rock solid in coverage. He's posted 75+ grades in that realm in each of the last three seasons, and also has great tackling and run defense chops to go with it. He hasn't missed more than 9% of his tackles over the past five years, and he added a career high 28 stops + TFLs in 2023. He's in a great spot playing opposite Jalen Ramsey, making this one of the most feared CB duos in the league.
Dark Horse
Austin Jackson - Offensive Tackle
The former first rounder was looking like a bust heading into 2023. He posted 52.5 and 49.9 overall blocking grades in his first two seasons, and then missed most of 2022 with an ankle injury. Jackson then had his 5th year option declined, challenging him to prove himself in 2023. He did just that, as he posted a 68.4 overall blocking grade and allowed a 3.55% pressure rate, or 1 pressure every 28 pass block snaps. This is more impressive considering he made the switch from left to right tackle, and he rightfully earned himself a 3 year, $36 million deal. With Patrick Paul ready to fill in for Terron Armstead if he goes down, Jackson can stick to the right side where he makes his money.
Photo: Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports
Record
8-9
I'll remind everyone that despite having a top half ranking, this schedule could spell for a tough season and a losing record. In the last six games, they play the Jets twice, as well as the Packers, Texans, 49ers, and Browns, with three of those matchups outside on the road. They also play the Bills in Buffalo in the beginning of November, which has been in the low 50s to mid 40s over the past several years. Those games could easily become 5 to 7 losses, and that's not including contests against the Seahawks in Seattle, Colts in Indy, and Rams in LA. This is their absolute floor, and I think they fall to it.
Final Notes
Tua finally got his extension, but I'm mixed. I think he's a starting-caliber QB in the NFL, but should not be getting a deal to make him one of the top paid QBs in the game. Miami will always be good with him at the helm, but I have strong doubts that he'll never get them over the hump - especially in a loaded AFC.
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