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Over the past two seasons, the Vikings have had some wild swings in terms of luck and chance. Just two seasons ago, they had the most one-possession victories in NFL history. Last year, the Vikings looked like they were poised for another big season until Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles.
After some tooling around the roster, this team looks much different heading into 2024. Let's take a look into where they'll be better, and where they'll be worse off for this upcoming campaign for my 22nd-ranked team.
Photo: Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press
Strengths
Justin Jefferson
Potential Top 10 Offensive Line
Multi-Faceted Defense
Jettas is the best receiver in the NFL, and he just got paid like it. With a change at QB, Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy will be leaning on him a ton. He's going to get a boatload of targets and have a chance to prove he's still the best WR in the league after getting injured last season.
Similar to the Raiders, this offensive line was a joke heading into 2022. They've now had a 13th and 12th overall finish per PFF in consecutive seasons, and they are bringing back all of their starters from last year. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill have done a lot of the heavy lifting, now it's time for the interior guys to step up and solidify this front all around.
Brian Flores has transformed this defense and it's now one of the most fun to watch. He'll have safeties lined up right over the center on a blitz, nose tackles lining up at the edge and taking zone drops, and linebackers out wide covering receivers. He has added some versatile pieces to get the most out of his system, and I'm excited to see him terrorize opposing offenses.
Weaknesses
No Safety Depth
Shallow WR Room
Bad Interior Defensive Linemen
Despite my excitement for this defense overall, this safety room is pretty bleh. Harrison Smith is great, but old, and Camryn Bynum had a solid year in 2023, but he got picked apart in the final four games. After that, Lewis Cine will need to step up big time, as he's played a total of 10 snaps in two years after being selected at the end of the first round in 2022. If he can't stay healthy, and one of Hitman or Bynum go down, offenses will have a field day picking apart their backups.
Similarly, if Jettas gets hurt again, or Jordan Addison sustains an injury, this WR room isn't looking much better. Brandon Powell is fine in the slot, but his 1.13 yards per route ran (YPPR) last year was lackluster given the opportunities he had in that offense. Behind him, no one eclipsed 1 YPRR last season that is currently on roster. Minnesota may be looking at some free agents to fit the bill if any of the top two options go down.
These defensive tackles are underwhelming at most. Harrison Phillips, Jonathan Bullard, and Jerry Tillery should all be rotational pieces, but they will be expected to be starters and play 600+ snaps throughout the year. All have proven to be ineffective in starting roles, with Tillery being the worst of the three. I'm not sure how they plan to use them in a way that'll help the defense, but they'll get picked on each game.
Key Additions
Andrew Van Ginkel - Edge Defender
JJ McCarthy - Quarterback
Aaron Jones - Running Back
With the departure of Danielle Hunter, the Vikings needed an efficient pass rusher. Van Ginkel fits the bill perfectly, as over the past three seasons, he's posted a great 15.01% pressure rate. In the seven games where he had more than 20 pass rushes in 2023, he recorded an incredible 18.75% pressure rate. If he can keep that rate up in a starting role, he'll add nearly 65 pressures at the bare minimum.
He won't start right away, but JJM will fit perfectly into KOC's offense. He played in a similar offense at Michigan, and he's a better QB than he gets credit for. He'll be able to rely on Justin Jefferson to hit easy passes early on, and that'll make him more confident to hit the bigger chunk shots that he needs to. He may stumble out the gate, but he's a much better long term option than Sam Darnold.
The Vikings tried the Alexander Mattison experiment last year, and it played out as bad as it could. Before his injury in Week 14, he was averaging just 3.75 yards per carry and 2.68 yards after contact. On the other hand, as Jones played through a series of leg injuries all of last year, he averaged 4.54 yards per carry and 3.16 yards after contact. With a full offseason to get healthy, Jones will be a massive upgrade to this rushing attack.
Dark Horse
Josh Metellus - Defensive Back
Metellus was deployed in a multitude of ways in 2023, as he had 200+ snaps aligned in the slot, in the box, or as an edge defender each. He put up a 25% pressure rate and a 3.84% run stop rate, which are ridiculous numbers for a defensive back. If he can take a step forward with his coverage, he'll be a feared defender across the league.
Photo: Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune
Record
5-12
I love this team on paper, even with their shortcomings at a few positions, but they're bound to get beat in close games given their QB situation and tough schedule. Eight of their games are against teams I have in the top 12, and they face five of them in the first six matchups. I can see them putting in JJM earlier than they should, which will hurt his development, but should help them win some games on the back half of their schedule.
Final Notes
At the time of writing this, Khyree Jackson, a rookie drafted by the Vikings, was killed in an automobile accident. We don't have all the details yet, but it's incredibly sad that we lost not just one, but three young men to a preventable accident. I'm putting loving and positive thoughts out there to all victims involved, and sending warm regards to the family members impacted.
As for the Vikings season, I hope they band together as a family and completely prove me wrong. No team or person should have to walk through what they will over the next several months.
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