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A once storied franchise has been through the ringer over the past several years. No more Bill, no more Brady, no more Patriot Way. New commander-in-chief Jerod Mayo looks to right the ship and get this once menacing organization back to its roots.
Who can we expect to step up from my 28th-ranked team heading into 2024?
Photo: David Zalubowski/Associated Press
Strengths
Elite Defense
Young, Yet Experienced Coaching Staff
Differing Receiver Skillsets
Despite one of the worst offenses in the league over the past two seasons, this defense has stepped up to the plate time and time again. Losing Judon and Gonzo last year was a big blow, but bringing them back, along with giving major deals to Kyle Dugger and Christian Barmore, should bode well for another top 5 defensive season from this entire unit.
With Belichick gone, this staff was intensely reworked; Mayo takes the reins, they bring in Alex Van Pelt to run the offense, and they have some former players on their staff, including Dont'a Hightower and Tiquan Underwood. Most of the coaches have no less than 3 years of experience at the pro level, giving them plenty of perspective despite their youth.
Yes, this receiving group is young, and they still posses some good skillsets that differ from each other. Ja'Lynn Polk plays bigger than his size lets on, Javon Baker is your vertical extender, DeMario Douglas is a demon out of the slot, and JuJu and Kendrick provide veteran depth and leadership. It's not the best receiving room, but it's getting written off when it shouldn't.
Weaknesses
Average to Below Average Offensive Line
Secondary Depth
Unproven Wide Receivers
The only two linemen who are locked in starters for me are David Andrews and Mike Onwenu. If Cole Strange can stay healthy, he'll be the third of that bunch, but even when available, he's been a pretty average player since entering the league. From there, it'll be a battle for the last two starting spots between Sidy Sow, Chukwuma Okorafor, Caedan Wallace, and Layden Robinson. It goes without saying the Pats are probably another year or two away from having a top 12 offensive line again.
The Pats strength over the past several years has been their ability to play in dime and nickel packages more than anyone, but unless they have a hidden stud in their DB rooms, that may be tough to do this year. Gonzo, Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and Jonathan Jones are great veterans, and Marcus Jones and Marte Mapu are still getting their feet wet in the league, but if any of them get hurt, it looks pretty bleak for their backups.
I may be somewhat contradicting the third strength from earlier, but this receiver room is pretty inexperienced. Despite their versatile strengths, the key will be getting the young guys up to speed and gelling together. If JuJu and Kendrick can get these guys in line, and help out when they can in games, there's no reason why the trio of Douglas, Polk, and Baker can't be good for a very long time.
Key Additions
Drake Maye - Quarterback
Ja'Lynn Polk - Wide Receiver
Caedan Wallace - Offensive Lineman
I will never get over the Commanders passing on Maye. He's the perfect QB to help rebuild this Pats roster, and he'll go from playing in a poorly designed offense into a pretty sophisticated one. He's got the arm talent, athleticism, and smarts to be a long time franchise QB; the Pats nailed this pick.
To give him some help when he's in a bind, the Pats added a receiver who catches nearly anything within his radius. Polk's tape is littered with big body plays where he's getting destroyed at the catch point, and he still comes down with the ball. He also ran a strong route tree and is a gritty blocker, two things the Pats desperately need from the WR room.
OL was certainly a need for this year, and with how the board fell, I'm okay with the Pats taking Caedan where they did. I believe he'll have a solid chance to start, and will help them against blitz and stunt heavy teams, as well as giving them some needed athleticism in the run game.
Dark Horse
DeMario Douglas - Slot Receiver
Production aside, DeMario popped on tape as a rookie. He's a high level route runner given his experience, and he did some damage when the ball finally got to his hands. With more depth at receiver, it should get him more favorable looks from the defense, and he should have much better production going into year two.
Photo: Maddie Meyer/GettyImages
Record
6-11
In 2023, the Pats lost eight games by one possession or less. In six of those games, they put up 17 points or less. With a heavy emphasis on improving the offense, and the defense getting healthy, they should win more of those one possession games in 2024.
As far as their schedule is concerned, they should win one of their first two games, then they'll be in a gauntlet until Week 9. From there, the only truly favorable matchup they have will be against the Titans. Despite this, I think they'll find a way to add four other wins between a division victory or two, and a few other scrappy games where the offense actually does put the games away.
Final Notes
I'm pretty optimistic about the Pats this year. Even if they have half the injuries they suffered a season ago, they should still be better than they were in 2023. Drake and Mayo have a good chance to restore this franchise and make them feared across the league again.
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