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A team one possession away from glory looks for revenge in 2024. They lost some firepower on defense, and may lose some more on offense, but they are still one of the biggest threats in the NFL.
But just how big of a threat will they pose heading into this season? Let's see how my 4th-ranked team will rebound after a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss.
Photo: Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages
Strengths
Offensive Skill Positions
Strong Secondary
Brock Purdy
It's no secret that this team is set up perfectly for Kyle Shanahan's offense. They can run 22, 21, 12, 11, or 10 personnel at any point in the game, and be just as effective no matter what grouping they choose to deploy. Kyle Jusczcyk is a major piece to this puzzle, as he can line up virtually anywhere on the field. Adding in superstars Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel make this the toughest offense for opponents to prepare for in the league. Add in veteran weapons in Jauan Jennings and Eric Saubert, as well as rookies Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing, they can attack defenses in a variety of ways.
A few years back, this secondary was pretty laughable. After some key free agency additions and high-quality draft picks, this unit looks like one of the best in the league. Charvarius Ward is a bonified top 10 corner in the league, and Talanoa Hufanga played like a bat out of hell these past two years. They're supported by underrated playmakers in Isaac Yiadom, Ji'Ayir Brown, Tracy Walker III, Rock Ya-Sin, and Deommodore Lenoir, and they also added rookie studs Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha, both of whom will be cornerstone pieces for this defense in a few years time.
Brock Purdy is a top 10 QB in this league, and any slander against him is pretty much unjustified. Anyone who says "he has the best weapons in the league" or "Shanahan schemes up easy throws" either doesn't watch 49ers games, or saw that one playoff game against the Seahawks and made an assumption about Brock. He was ironically the best deep passer in the league in 2023, as he posted a near perfect 99.9 grade and a league leading 68.3% adjusted completion rate on throws 20+ yards downfield. To boot, he also was a magician navigating pockets, as he had the 6th lowest pressure to sack rate a 14.6%, despite being pressured on nearly 40% of his dropbacks. He constantly creates plays, and he's the reason this offense clicks the way it does.
Weaknesses
Offensive Line
Defensive Front Depth
Oldest Roster in NFL
This OL is not gonna cut it year over year, and was key factor for their Super Bowl defeat. Outside of Trent Williams - who may not even play this year due to contract disputes, this unit is trash. Colton McKivitz shouldn't be a starter, but is asked to hold down the edge of one of the most complicated offenses in the league. On the interior, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, and Jon Feliciano have been replaceable, as they've combined for just two 65+ overall blocking grades over 18 seasons. To the Niners credit, they added Dominick Puni, who looks to be a starting guard by the time the regular season rolls around.
For years, this team has boasted a deep defensive front. Just last year, they rolled out Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Randy Gregory, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Javon Kinlaw for the Super Bowl - and that wasn't even at full strength, as they were missing late-season bloomer Drake Jackson. This year looks much bleaker, as Drake is still on the PUP list, and the only returning contributors are Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave. Sure, they added Leonard Flord, Maliek Collins, and Yetur Gross-Matos, but they're nothing more than rotational pieces at this point, and they'll be asked to start multiple games this season.
Unlike the Packers, age is one of the few things that will hold this team back. Yes, they have experience, but their veteran pieces aren't the best in the world. In retrospect, they haven't done a good job drafting over the past five years to shore up positions they're aging at. They don't have a clear replacement for George Kittle, who has been less and less productive lately, the OL has their own problems, and the defense will rely on aging veterans to give them life. It's not a recipe for long-term success, and it may not even be good enough for short-term victories in tougher matchups.
Key Additions
Dominick Puni - Guard
Renardo Green - Cornerback
De'Vondre Campbell Sr - Linebacker
I spoke about how bad this OL is earlier, and Puni was a much needed addition to move them in the right direction. I mentioned in my PRR for Offensive Tackles write-up that Puni transitioning to guard would be electric, and I've had my priors confirmed so far throughout camp and preseason. In just his second game against NFL talent, he posted a 75.6 overall blocking grade, and an 81.2 pass blocking grade, on 40 total blocking snaps. He allowed just 1 pressure, and has been doing exactly what he needs to do to lock down a starting spot by Week 1.
Renardo was another great pickup throughout the draft process. Green brings physicality, inside-outside flexibility, and great technique between his man and zone coverage. With both outside positions locked down by Ward and Yiadom, I expect Green to challenge for the starting nickel spot, and boy would he be a damn good one.
Dre Greenlaw is a great LB, but the 49ers made the right call signing a seasoned veteran to fill in while he recovers. Campbell broke out when he was signed by Green Bay back in 2021, and while he hasn't been as strong since, he's still been a more than capable defender and worth starting. He can fill in nicely for Dre for the first part of the season, and be a great depth piece throughout the back-half of 2024 and the postseason, making this a necessary and underrated signing.
Dark Horse
Isaac Yiadom - Cornerback
After struggling heavy through his first five seasons, Yiadom put it together in New Orleans last year. He posted an 80.4 coverage grade, recorded 11 pass breakups, just a 50% completion rate allowed, and only 289 yards. He'll play a similar role in this defense, as he'll be the bonified CB2 who can run with deep threats and big body receivers. I think this is the year he earns some much needed respect, especially after the dominant season he put up in 2023.
Photo: Terrell Lloyd
Record
12-5
The 49ers have a fairly balanced schedule. They play some big time opponents, and they have some gimme games mixed in as well. They start their season against the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, and Cardinals - which could very well lead to a 5-0 start. Throughout the middle of their slate of games, they'll take on the Chiefs, Packers, and Bills within a six game window. They do have a less than ideal finish, as they take on the Rams, Dolphins, Lions, and the Cardinals once again over the last four games. I believe they could win 14 games, but they're bound to lose some of the easier matchups, so 12 wins is their exact median for floor and ceiling.
Final Notes
If the Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams contract situations don't get worked out, and Drake Jackson doesn't come back strong from injury, losing those three players could be a massive impact for both sides of the ball. I believe Brock and Kyle can make do with what they have, but losing those three would be hard for any team to manage.
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