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We're just about a quarter of the way through the 2024 season, and in typical NFL fashion, all expectations are thrown out the window. Part of that is the usual parity we see from season to season, but to be frank, the on-field product has been pretty subpar this year. There's been some bad football played; offensive line performance is at an all-time low, players are committing a slew of simple mistakes that pros shouldn't be making (muffed punts, blown coverage assignments, and quarterbacks making poor reads/decisions), and it seems like the majority of coordinators are making "scared" play calls.
I'll dive into more throughout this blog, so make sure to read to the end for that.
Week 5 Power Rankings
Teams to Note
Washington Commanders (Rose 7 spots)
Look, I'm not going to say Jayden Daniels has arrived yet after he dotted up two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. I will, however, give credit where it's due and acknowledge that he has played damn near perfect football as a passer through four games. As a team, the OL is playing much better than anticipated, and the defense is doing their fair share to keep opposing offenses at bay.
Arizona Cardinals (Dropped 4 spots)
Sunday's loss was the most embarrassing defeat for the new regime of Monti and Gannon. The Cardinals had a great matchup with our receivers against Washington's DBs, and Drew Petzing refused to attack them. The play-calling on 3rd and 4th down was also a major letdown this past week, and I'm starting to lose faith in this offense. Sunday should've been a win, and it was a humiliating L instead.
Week 4 Awards
Awards | AFC | NFC |
Offensive MVP | Derrick Henry | Baker Mayfield |
Defensive MVP | Kyle Van Noy | Fred Warner |
Special Teams MVP | AJ Cole | Younghoe Koo |
Trench Tyrant | Ben Powers | Zach Tom |
Relentless Rookie | T'Vondre Sweat | Braden Fiske |
Winners to Note
Baker Mayfield
The Bucs dominated the Eagles all afternoon, and Baker was a big reason for that. He was top 4 in both pass yards and passing grade with 347 and 85.1 marks, respectively, and if not for 4 drops and 3 batted passes at the LOS, he may have gone for 400+ yards on a near 80% completion rate.
T'Vondre Sweat
The massive rookie has outplayed what I thought he was capable of early in his career, and this was his best game so far. He was a tree stump in the run game, and ate up multiple gaps at a time on his way to 3 stops + TFLs, as well as a 91.2 grade in that category. He also held Miami to just 23 yards up the middle, and he added 2 pressures in the pass game.
Zach Tom
Zach has been a welcome addition to the Packers OL, and he showed out against a tough defense. He posted the highest overall and run blocking scores among all offensive linemen, with 89.0 and 92.7 grades in each category. He also allowed just 2 pressures against 56 pass rushes, despite seeing a variety of blitzes and stunts off the edge.
Photo: Kyle Bursaw/Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Football
Week 4 Recap
Points | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex |
Player | Andy Dalton | Bucky Irving | Darnell Mooney | Cole Kmet | Greg Dortch |
Projected | 14.2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
Actual | 15.7 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 7.8 |
Difference | 1.5 | 4.7 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 0.2 |
Result | Push | Boom | Push | Push | Push |
Season Totals: 2 Booms / 13 Pushes / 5 Busts
Week 5 Prediction
QB: Jacoby Brissett vs Miami Dolphins (proj. 11.8 points)
Miami can't function without Tua at QB, and with some injuries to their defense, I'm banking on Jacoby to get plenty of chances to put up a good game.
RB: Kareem Hunt vs New Orleans Saints (proj. 10.7 points)
If Sunday is any indication, Kareem is the lead back until Pacheco is healthy. After Carson Steele fumbled, Kareem was in for 15 rushing snaps, compared to Samaje Perine's 5 and Carson's 1. In addition, Kareem was in for 13 passing snaps, while Samaje was in for 16 passing snaps. The opportunity is there for Kareem, and he should make the most of it.
WR: Allen Lazard vs Minnesota Vikings (proj. 7.4 points)
Garrett Wilson has been getting bracketed at an insanely high rate, meaning a good chunk of his designed targets end up going to Lazard. As long as defenses keep shadowing Garrett, which the Vikings will do, Lazard should continue to put up 10+ fantasy point performances.
TE: Erick All vs Baltimore Ravens (proj. 6.2 points)
Erick has been given more and more chances on this Bengals offense, as he's seen his snap share and route percentage increase by 36.17% and 21.84% respectively since Week 1. He's also consistently had 4 targets and 4 receptions in each of the past three games - he could have a big fantasy performance if he turns one of those into a TD.
Flex: Rashod Bateman vs Cincinnati Bengals (proj. 7.4 points)
Rashod's a safe bet to score a TD this week. It's a rivalry game, and Cincy has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Lamar will go to him more than he has in the past few weeks.
Week 5 Game Predictions
AFC Games
Ravens vs Bengals
Colts vs Jaguars
Dolphins vs Patriots
Bills vs Texans
Raiders vs Broncos
NFC Games
Buccaneers vs Falcons (TNF)
Panthers vs Bears
Packers vs Rams
Cardinals vs 49ers
Giants vs Seahawks
Cross Over Games
Jets vs Vikings (London)
Browns vs Commanders
Cowboys vs Steelers (SNF)
Saints vs Chiefs (MNF)
**Bye Week: Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Titans
Record from Week 4: 10-6
Season Record: 34-30
Photos: Greg Fiume/GettyImages
Issues with the NFL Product
Over the course of four weeks, it's clear that the quality of NFL caliber play, especially offensively, is at a low point. There are multiple reasons for it, but I'm going to break it down into three categories: Quarterback Development, Offensive Line Depth and Quality, and Preseason Utilization.
Quarterback Development
With the evolution of college football into a spacing game mixed in with heavy RPO usage, college quarterbacks are now asked to rely mainly on pre-snap reads rather than reacting to the defense throughout the play. This, in turn, is stunting their development at actively reading defensive progressions. At the pro level, you'll see more match and disguise coverages, as well as more complicated stunts and pressure paths, making the translation from college to pro football more difficult than in the past.
Additionally, rookie QBs are asked to start much earlier, rather than taking a full season to sit and learn behind a veteran. Putting those two together makes for poor QB play early on, which is what we're seeing with Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, and others. Obviously, this isn't the case for QBs like CJ Stroud, but when you look at Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Brock Purdy, it's hard to argue against sitting a young gunslinger for at least a year.
With this, there seems to be one constant that either supports or diminishes QB development: franchise health and stability. When looking at the QBs who are starting to flutter out (or have already done so), those organizations have a long history of poor QB play. Conversely, QBs that come from those same bad organizations often do well when they end up on a new team. Over the past several seasons, we've seen Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold thrive when in the right syste when many thought they would be busts after their first stint - hell, even Justin Fields is playing the best football of his pro career so far in Pittsburgh.
Putting together the vast difference in college to pro offenses, QBs being relied on to start much earlier, and organizations not being fully equipped to develop a young prospect makes for bad results, which is exactly what we're seeing. On top of that, this current group of veteran QBs who were in that first wave of that spaced out college offensive styles are now being exposed as defenses take that spacing away. Patrick Mahomes is the main passer that comes to mind, as he dominates against 1-high safety looks because that's what he saw far more often throughout his college career. Now that defenses are playing more 2-high looks, he doesn't process it as quickly, and pass rushes have become so advanced that routes aren't getting open in time before pressure gets home, which leads us to my next point about OL play.
Offensive Line Depth and Quality
I mention depth in the header, but I really mean the overall mass of quality linemen across the NFL. This ties back into how college offenses have evolved, and OLs are asked far less frequently to get into true pass sets and take on rushers. On top of that, many offenses are running heavy zone-style schemes, which doesn't ask for much pulling on power, counter, and trap plays. Between both quick passing attacks thriving in college and blockers not repping every blocking technique in games, linemen come to the NFL ill-prepared to take on pro level rushers. Add in the absence of under center schemes and heavy use of play action to help OLs hold up longer, it's easy to see why more and more trenches are struggling to be successful. The best way to help that and get more reps for incoming rookies is to get pre-season game action, which is another issue entirely.
Preseason Utilization
A few years back, it became popular for teams to not play any of their starters in the preseason. This was a common practice by Sean McVay and the Rams, and they still saw success, often going 2-1 or even 3-0 through the first few games up until this season. More teams have adopted this ideology, but most have failed to truly replicate the functionality of it, and it shows up on Sundays. Take the Carolina Panthers for example. Dave Canales is bringing in a brand new system, and he has a young quarterback who struggled in his rookie season. Instead of getting him reps during preseason games to knock the rust off, Bryce Young sat all three contests, and didn't get his first live action snap until Week 1. This led to two horrendous performances from him, and ultimately his benching.
If you know me, you know I love Dave Canales and the relationship he builds with QBs, but this is just coaching malpractice. On top of that, other teams across the entire NFL have struggled out of the gate when they should have been getting their starters reps during the pre-season. To make matters worse, Roger Goodell wants to get rid of preseason games altogether in favor of an 18th regular season game and an additional bye week.
I like the 18 game, 2 bye week formula, but getting rid of the preseason will make for an even worse product than we're currently getting, especially during the first few weeks. I'm sure teams will still hold joint practices and scrimmages, and that's how they'll get their looks, but there's nothing like a game environment to get comfortable within your schemes.
Photo: Adam Hunger/Associated Press
Final Notes
Trade rumors are starting to mount up, especially around Davante Adams. There are multiple teams who could use a player of his caliber, but will the contract be worth the acquisition? We may have our answer sooner rather than later.
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