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From House Enterprise, and inspired by Rich Eisen, I’m introducing “Overreaction Tuesday.” Every Tuesday throughout the NFL season, I will overreact to what I deem the biggest storyline to come from the prior weekend’s games across the league, that includes Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.
In the NFL, the stories and narratives change every single week. The bottom line is that it’s a long season (five months from Week 1 to the Super Bowl to be exact) and we don’t know how it’s going to end. All we can do is overreact to the most recent data, so let’s do that.
Week 10 - November 9 - November 13, 2023
Carolina Panthers 13 (1-8) @ Chicago Bears 16 (3-7)
Overreaction: Earlier this season, I said it was the Bears who had the bleakest outlook of any team in the NFL. I was wrong. It’s not the Bears, it’s the Carolina Panthers who have the bleakest outlook of any team in the NFL. Carolina is currently 1-8, has the 30th ranked offense in the league despite having the 2023 #1 draft pick playing quarterback. In fact, when it comes to total passing yards, Carolina is only better than the Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, and Giants. Not only are the Panthers the worst team in the league, they also don’t have a first round draft pick in 2024. They traded that pick to the Bears and gave them receiver DJ Moore so that they could draft Bryce Young first overall. Not only is that pick not aging well, there is another quarterback in CJ Stroud, who was selected directly after Young, that is setting the league on fire. It’s still too early to definitively tell on the Young vs. Stroud debate, although early returns are emphatically showing that the Panthers got it wrong and they’re in even worse shape now than they were a season ago when they fired their head coach midseason and traded the league’s best offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey.
Indianapolis Colts 10 (5-5) @ New England Patriots 6 (2-8) - Frankfurt, Germany
Overreaction: As crazy as it is to say, this is the end of Bill Belichick in New England. The long-time Patriots head coach has won six Super Bowls and is currently second on the NFL’s all-time win list, just 16 wins behind legendary coach Don Shula. And yet, at this rate, it doesn’t appear that Belichick will ever catch Shula, at least not in New England. Since the departure of Tom Brady, the Patriots are 27-33 with one winning season and one playoff appearance that ended with a 30 point loss to the Bills. This year, they are 2-8 and enter their bye week after a 6 point performance against the Colts in Germany. It’s the third time this season that the Patriots have scored less than 10 points, as the team currently sits 31st in the league in points per game. It’s time for a change in New England. Belichick’s Patriots with Tom Brady at quarterback will live as the most dominant era in modern NFL history, but this is not that team, in fact it’s far from it. I think there’s a chance his run as a head coach does not end here, but I think it’s fair to say that his time as a Patriot is coming to an end.
Houston Texans 30 (5-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals 27 (5-4)
Overreaction: The Houston Texans are the biggest threat to any contender in the AFC. If I’m the Chiefs, Jaguars, Bills, Dolphins, and of course, Bengals, the Texans are the absolute last team I want to see in January. Houston has scored 30 points or more in four of their five wins this year, including the last two against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, which were both won thanks to game-winning drives that were put together by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Stroud has been dominant in his first year in the league. He currently is 2nd in the league in passing yards, 9th in touchdown passes, and has thrown the fewest interceptions among all starting quarterbacks (2). He has the Texans offense humming, which ranked in the bottom 5 of the league last year and now sits as the 6th best offense in the league. First-year Head Coach DeMeco Ryans is currently my pick for coach of the year and if his Texans keep it up he most certainly will be.
New Orleans Saints 19 (5-5) @ Minnesota Vikings 27 (6-4)
Overreaction: The Vikings are going to the playoffs. The arrival of Quarterback Josh Dobbs following the injury to Kirk Cousins has completely changed this team. Minnesota has won five games in a row after a 1-4 start, including the last two with Dobbs at quarterback. Less than a week after he was traded to the Vikings from Arizona, Dobbs was put into the game against Atlanta, a game Minnesota miraculously won. A week later, the Vikes won again, this time against New Orleans in a game they once led 27-3. Coming up, Minnesota plays @ Denver, vs. Chicago, and @ Las Vegas. Even if they drop one of those games, they’ll be 8-5 with four games to go and in a very good position to make the postseason. Who could’ve seen this coming a month ago?
Green Bay Packers 19 (3-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (6-3)
Overreaction: The Steelers are completely defying logic and will make the playoffs because of it. Head Coach Mike Tomlin has his team at 6-3 despite getting outgained in every game they’ve played this season. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has thrown just 6 touchdown passes this year, the same number as games Pittsburgh has won. The QB ranks 26th in the league in passing, 28th in touchdowns, and 30th in completion percentage. As an offense, Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the league and 26th in points per game. The reason they have six wins? The Steelers defense has forced 18 turnovers this season, tied for the most in the NFL. Their turnover differential is at +10, which is also tied for 1st in the NFL with Cincinnati. The Pittsburgh offense takes care of the football and does not lose the game, while the defense forces turnovers and is charged with winning games. The defense-first team strategy has worked for the Steelers up to this point and with enough winnable games on the schedule, it feels like this team could very easily wind up in the playoff picture in January.
Tennessee Titans 6 (3-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 (4-5)
Overreaction: Mike Vrabel’s days in Tennessee could be numbered, but not because they’re going to fire him. There are rumors swirling that if a certain head coaching job in the AFC East became available, that Vrabel could be a prime candidate to take the role. Vrabel played in the NFL for 13 years, including 7 with the New England Patriots, where he won three Super Bowls and was a First-Team-All-Pro selection in 2007. Should Bill Belichick and the Patriots part ways following the season while the Titans finish near their current position at the bottom of the AFC standings, a move for Vrabel to his ‘alma mater’ so-to-speak would make a lot of sense.
San Francisco 49ers 34 (6-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 3 (6-3)
Overreaction: The Jaguars are in trouble of losing the AFC South. The Jags are 6-3 on the year but their losses have come against the Chiefs, Texans, and 49ers while the wins have been against the Colts twice, Falcons, Bills, Saints, and Steelers. Against the two best teams they’ve played, Kansas City and San Francisco, they failed to score a touchdown, including this past week when they were coming off a bye and hosting a huge opponent in the 49ers. With the surging Texans not far behind at 5-4, the Jags have quickly gone from the team with the longest winning streak in the NFL to a team that is in danger of losing control of its division.
Cleveland Browns 33 (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens 31 (7-3)
Overreaction: The AFC North is the craziest division in the NFL. Through ten weeks, the Ravens and Browns are 2-2 in the division, the Steelers are 2-0, and the Bengals are 0-2, all within two games of each other in the standings. It’s been up-and-down for everyone in the AFC North throughout the season. Earlier this year, the Ravens beat the Browns by 25. On Sunday, Cleveland came to Baltimore and got revenge, winning on a last-second field goal, 33-31. Going to Week 11, this is the only division in football where it feels like any team could win it. Cincinnati has started to hit their stride and they are in last place, Cleveland has a dominant defense and an offense starting to click, Pittsburgh has a stellar defense and is defying logic at 6-3, while Baltimore has looked nearly unbeatable at times but has struggled in divisional games. A ways to go, but it’ll be very fun to watch how the AFC North shakes out down the stretch.
Atlanta Falcons 23 (4-6) @ Arizona Cardinals 25 (2-8)
Overreaction: Arthur Smith is done as head coach of the Falcons. On Sunday, Atlanta suffered its third straight loss, losing three games in a row to Tennessee, Minnesota, and Arizona, all in games they were favored to win and all losses by one possession. Head Coach Arthur Smith has made a change at QB, opting for Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder, and it has not yielded any wins. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are getting more involved in the offense, and it still is not enough. In Sunday’s loss, Robinson had a career-high 22 rushes and led the team in rushing while the top three receivers were London, Pitts, and Robinson, respectively. And yet, they are still losing games. With the talent Atlanta has on both sides of the ball and a losing team, all eyes look to the head coach for why they aren’t having more success. If Atlanta doesn’t turn things around before the end of the season, Arthur Smith is in deep trouble as head coach of the Falcons.
Detroit Lions 41 (7-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers 38 (4-5)
Overreaction: Dan Campbell is currently the gutsiest coach in the league. The Detroit Lions just keep winning, and in all kinds of ways. Over the past month, Detroit has won a defensive battle 20-6, a game they didn’t look their best 26-14, and now a shootout in LA 41-38. They can beat you in all kinds of ways and have a coach that sets the tone with his decision-making. In Sunday’s win over the Chargers, Dan Campbell opted to go for it on 4th down five times, converting four of them. The final 4th down conversion came with under two minutes remaining with the game tied at 38. Rather than opting for the field goal on 4th and 2 at the LA 26, Campbell left his offense on the field, wanting to convert the 1st down and drain the clock and kick a game-winning field goal as time expired. Well, that is exactly what happened. Jared Goff completed a pass to Sam LaPorta on 4th down and four plays later Riley Patterson booted a 41 yard field goal to win it on the games final play. Campbell continues to do the unconventional and has his Lions soaring through the league with a 7-2 record and a friendly schedule the rest of the way.
New York Giants 17 (2-8) @ Dallas Cowboys 49 (6-3)
Overreaction: Don’t sleep on the Cowboys as a Super Bowl contender just yet. Yes, it was the Giants and yes the Cowboys dominated as they were expected to, but it feels like there’s a lot of sleeping on the Cowboys going on through Week 10 of the season. It likely has to do with the fact that they haven’t beaten a team that is currently over .500 and have lost to both ‘title contenders’ they’ve played in San Francisco and Philadelphia. Ok, fair enough. However, over the next few weeks, the Cowboys play @ Carolina, vs. Washington, vs. Seattle, and vs. Philadelphia. If they can win their next three, it would set up a huge NFC East game with the Eagles in early December on Sunday Night Football. Worst case, Dallas likely ends up as the top wildcard and plays a road playoff game against the winner of the NFC South. Best case, they could still snag the NFC’s top seed for the playoffs.
Washington Commanders 26 (4-6) @ Seattle Seahawks 29 (6-3)
Overreaction: The Seahawks are 6-3, but won’t make the playoffs. Seattle has played very well at times this season. They won wins over the Lions and Browns and are 6-3, tied for 1st in the NFC West with San Francisco. And yet, I’m worried about what lies ahead. After this week’s game on the road against the Rams, Seattle plays San Francisco, @ Dallas, @ San Francisco, and home against Philadelphia. I’m not sure they’ll win a single one of those games. Let’s say they go 0-4 in that span. They’d be 7-7 and out of the race for the division with games remaining @ Tennessee, vs. Pittsburgh, and @ Arizona, a seemingly toss-up schedule at that point. The Seahawks have a good team, but a very tough schedule. If they were to drop the game against the Rams this week, I’ll be doubling down on this take next week.
New York Jets 12 (4-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders 16 (5-5)
Overreaction: Thanks to the worst Sunday Night Football game in recent memory, we can now say the Jets will actually NOT make the playoffs. And good thing too. For the casual fan, the Jets are one of the least fun teams to watch in the league. Their defense is filled with young studs while the offense has great skill position players. And yet, because of the quarterback, they have struggled so much that they are now below .500 and have lost back-to-back games with games against Buffalo and Miami up next. The biggest problem for the Jets right now is the lack of touchdowns. In fact, New York has not scored an offensive touchdown since the 1st quarter of the October 29 win over the Giants, a Breece Hall catch from Zach Wilson. Now, they’ve gone 11 straight quarters without a touchdown and it happened against the Giants, Chargers, and Raiders, three teams that are .500 or worse. Of the final eight games on the schedule, the Jets will play five that are currently over .500. The road gets tougher and the offense continues to sputter for the Jets, which will keep them out of the postseason after all in 2023.
Denver Broncos 24 (4-5) @ Buffalo Bills 22 (5-5)
Overreaction: The Bills are not going to make the playoffs. It’s frankly unbelievable what has happened to the Bills this season. Buffalo has turned the ball over 18 times, tied for the 2nd most in the league. Of those 18 turnovers, 11 have been interceptions thrown by Josh Allen. After Monday night’s embarrassing loss to Denver, in which the Bills turned it over four times, Buffalo let go of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in what appears to be a desperate move. The Bills offense currently ranks 7th in total yards, 3rd in passing, and 8th in points per game. I’m not sure that Dorsey was the reason they’ve been losing games. From here, the schedule only gets tougher. Buffalo likely has to get at least nine wins to be in the playoff picture and with remaining games against the likes of Philadelphia, KC, Dallas, and Miami, wins will be very hard to come by over the final two months of the season.
Week 10 Teams on Bye:
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
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