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Two weeks and a day after their first matchup, the Georgetown Hoyas will travel to Hinkle Fieldhouse to take on the Butler Bulldogs. In the first matchup, the Hoyas won 73-70, marking the only time since December 18th that the Hoyas eclipsed 70 points. Both teams have played two games since that contest, both beating Seton Hall, with Butler also beating Providence, while Georgetown fell to Xavier in the Cintas Center.
I think I gave as detailed a breakdown as I could give in the first writeup linked here, but there were some notes from the game that I want to dig into, before getting to some questions from the people (massive thanks to anyone who submitted a question).
Takeaway 1: No Jayden Epps in Game One
Georgetown’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive without their best scorer, Jayden Epps. He has been on and off the court over the last month, and when he has played, he hasn’t looked nearly 100%. With both teams getting the week off, hopefully this gave Jayden Epps enough time to recover and play at his best.
Takeaway 2: Peavy vs Telfort Matchup
This was the matchup I highlighted most in my original preview. It’s the best offensive player for Butler against Georgetown's best defender, and in this man's opinion, clearly the most versatile defender in this league. Round One was won by Micah Peavy. Alongside his 19 points, nine rebounds and three steals, he shut down Jahmyl Telfort. Peavy took the ball out of Jahmyl Telfort’s hands and turned him into a spot-up shooter, as shown with his two buckets below.
Round Two could be very different from Round One, but the Bulldogs might need a secondary scorer to step up. In the first matchup it was Finley Bizjack (17 points) and Andre Screen (16 points), who might need to put up similar numbers if Butler is to win this one.
Takeaway 3: Butler can’t start Boden Kapke Again
Boden Kapke is a fine player, I don’t want this to be an attack on him, because it isn’t. This is a matchup angle. Kapke’s strength is his ability to pull the defense out to the perimeter, and make your center have to guard him on the perimeter. He’s the better matchup against a team like Creighton as a result.
His weakness is rim protection. And Georgetown went at him relentlessly. Whenever he was in, the Hoyas fed their star freshman Thomas Sorber. Boden Kapke played nine minutes, and had a game-worst, +/- of -9. Georgetown’s star freshman Thomas Sorber finished with 19 points in 35 minutes of game action. When Boden Kapke was on the floor, Sorber had 12 points.
Straight up, Butler has to do everything in their power to prevent this from being a one-on-one matchup. Either you have to double off non-shooters when Kapke is in, or you have to stagger his minutes so Sorber only goes against Screen. Some of those buckets were a coincidence (Sorber had one transition bucket that would’ve happened regardless), but still, Butler has to adjust here.
Final Thoughts
Watching this game live, it felt like Georgetown should have won by more. Nothing changed on rewatch. Georgetown couldn’t throw a rock into the ocean (fairly normal for this team tbf). Expect this game to be decided in the last few possessions, much like the last one.
Q&A (if you just want my last, brief thoughts on this game, control/command F and type "prediction," or just scroll to the bottom of the page). These are fun. I’ll start with the more serious hoops questions, then dig into some fun stuff.
So using the old KenPom to look back at Coach Cooley’s teams, his team this year is 169th in tempo. If they end the season at that same rank, this would be Cooley’s fastest team since 2019 (2020 ranked 171st). Half of Cooley’s teams at Providence (6/12) ranked 200th or slower in tempo. Generally speaking, he likes teams that play slower, but around average pace nationally.
Now, the hope in him taking this job is that he’s recruiting a higher caliber of talent, and can look to push the pace a little bit. But when you have a stellar big man, like these Hoyas do in Thomas Sorber, you typically want to slow it down a bit so your big man can get post position.
Arizona is one team that plays fast and likes to post up their bigs early. They haven’t done it much this year, but here’s a video from a couple of years back that gets into the real nerdy philosophical stuff of how they can run and post their bigs up, with the time stamp starting as Lloyd explains his offense.
I don’t think Georgetown will implement this same style, but if you bring back a big like Sorber, and can add pieces to this roster who fit this style (smaller guards would thrive from more opportunities in the open floor), I think they could add some aspects of it.
Let’s do it! Combining these two to start with Big East Tournament conversations. So I’ll go in order from 1-11, here’s the BE Tournament bracket if the season ended today.
St. John’s: Pros are simple, this defense is ELITE. Second best in the entire country. Their defense is far and away the best unit in this conference.
Cons: Shooting. SJU settles for a lot of mid-range jumpers, like far too many. But mainly here, they can’t shoot the three-ball at all. They don’t shoot them, and the ones they do take they don’t make enough.
X-Factor: Aaron Scott
Creighton: Pros: Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth. Kalkbrenner is the front-runner for Big East Player of the Year, and controls every game on the defensive end.
Cons: Matchup dependent. They can’t really adjust, Creighton is who they are. They need the right draws if they’re to make a run in March (imo Gonzaga and Houston are nightmare matchups)
X-Factor: Jamiya Neal
Marquette: Pros: Kam Jones, turnover battle. Marquette will have the best guard in most games, and they both turn other teams over a ton, and don’t turn the ball over themselves.
Cons: Slumping lately BAD. Other teams have caught up, they need to bounce back. Also no true interior presence.
X-Factor: Royce Parham
UConn: Pros: Winning pedigree, awesome shooting. UConn has won back-to-back titles, they know how to win in a tournament setting, and their offense is just beautiful.
Cons: Foul a ton, and can give opponents too many good looks from the outside. But mainly, fouling.
X-Factor: Tarris Reed
Villanova: Pros: Eric Dixon. Best scorer in the country. Wooga Poplar is an excellent #2, very well-rounded offensive game. As a team, they are the fourth-best three-point shooting.
Cons: Defense. They can’t guard anybody. They’ve gotten better in conference play, but this defense still has moments where it is quite concerning.
X-Factor: Jordan Longino
Xavier: Pros: Much like Villanova, awesome shooting team. 12th in the country. They also move the ball really well. Get to the free-throw line pretty well too.
Cons: They don’t shoot it well from inside the arc, and are often losing the battle on the glass in Big East play.
X-Factor: Dante Maddox
Georgetown: Pros: Awesome Defense. Really stout around the rim and force a ton of turnovers. Thomas Sorber is as good a rim protector as a freshman could be.
Cons: Offense. They don’t shoot threes and can’t get to the foul line. No offensive consistency, and if Sorber is shut down, Georgetown is.
X-Factor: Malik Mack
Providence: Pros: Guard play. When all of Pierre, Joseph and Floyd are going, they are tough to beat. Those guys are very much rhythm-dependent, but if they’re all on, they can pull off an upset.
Cons: Turnover Battle. They turn the ball over quite a bit, and don’t force any themselves. They can’t get their pace and space offense going as a result, and give up too many easy buckets in transition.
X-Factor: Rich Barron
Butler: Pros: Shooting. Butler also dominates the free-throw battle, getting to the line a ton and not fouling opponents at all.
Cons: Defense. Butler doesn’t turn teams over at all, and in conference play, teams are scoring very consistently at the rim. Butler’s defense falls apart when they play teams as athletic/more athletic than them.
X-Factor: Patrick McCaffery
DePaul Pros: They can shoot, Cons: Injured, and everything else
Seton Hall: Pros: Isaiah Coleman is pretty solid. Chaunce Jenkins when he plays is a hooper. Cons: Everything else, they are horrible.
Let’s start with BE Tourney Deep Sleeper. When I look for a sleeper team, you just look at the ceiling. If all goes right, who can take it. And it’s Villanova. Villanova will have the best scorer on the floor in any game with Eric Dixon. They have proven they can compete with just about everybody in the Big East and are the fourth-best shooting team in the country. If they get hot and Eric Dixon starts cooking, they can beat anybody.
No, Andre Screen doesn’t provide Sorber fits, but he’s the vastly better matchup as I hit on earlier. And for the future question, so much of it will come down to the transfer portal and who comes in/leaves. But I’ll give some very brief, way-too-early notes on some teams:
Marquette: This Sophomore class hasn’t taken the step they need to yet. Can they over the offseason? Absolutely. But losing Kam Jones, Stevie Mitchell and David Joplin is a lot. Shaka might have to look to the portal to keep this thing rolling.
Creighton: The defense will take a huge drop without Kalkbrenner. Creighton will need to be very active in the portal to replace Ashworth, Kalkbrenner and Neal. Returning Isaacs would help. McDermott has done an excellent job there and will get it going again, but next year might be a rebuilding year.
Xavier: This year was a very important one with how they built this roster. Of their eight main rotation guys, only two return. Roddie Anderson comes off a redshirt and maybe he has progressed in his year off, but he was the weak link at Boise last year. They have to hit the portal and completely rebuild again next to Conwell/Swain, which is a tall task.
UConn: Their HS class is excellent. The Karaban decision will weigh heavy, but if you return him, develop Nowell (whose potential I love), run him next to Solo Ball, and even get something from one of these freshmen immediately... yeah they’ll have it.
Georgetown: If you bring back Sorber to this team, the future is bright. I think that Sorber will develop much more with a second year in college, to help find his offensive game for the next level, but if he’s a lottery pick… get that bag King. This core is really young, and these guys will grow/get healthier together. Hit on one or two big portal additions and yeah, this thing could be rolling.
Butler: I can’t pretend like I’m not worried. Butler has a very promising freshman class coming to school next year, but Butler’s top four scorers are all graduating. Butler’s fifth leading scorer has already entered the portal once, before coming back. Butler will have at least four new starters next year, and it’s not a sustainable way to build a program. Butler will need to hit big on the portal again, and it’s far from impossible, but it’s an uphill battle.
The late JT3 games were the first ones that came to mind. Marcus Derrickson and Jessie Govan going to Hinkle and winning. Greg Malinowski game too. And on the other side, Sean McDermott hit five straight threes in DC leading Butler to a huge 20-point comeback win. In 2015, these teams played three games and all three games were really competitive. Both teams then made the tournament and won a game there.
A lot of the games in the Ewing Era were close, but I think the game for me is Terrell Allen and Jagan Mosely coming to Hinkle and leading Georgetown to a win over a then Top 20 Butler team. I was at that game while visiting Butler, and people around me were so nice to a kid wearing the other Blue and Grey. I knew as soon as I left campus that day I was coming to Butler. Couple that with the heart that group showed, with just six guys who played together and fought. That game stands out as one of the better memories from the Ewing Era.
There is not a chance this ages well. That said, let’s cook.
Florida State: Will Wade. This fit feels like a layup though not the likeliest outcome.
Virginia: Ryan Odom. His dad was an assistant at UVA for a while, and completing the cycle as the coach 16 seeded UMBC that beat UVA. Story book ending.
Miami: Chris Caputo. This one feels like a longshot, but GW is good this year and Caputo has connections to Miami.
And I have no earthly idea what Indiana does. Mick Cronin gives Indiana vibes if they want to find the closest guy to Bob Knight nowadays. Don’t see it happening, but the vibes are there.
Nothing I do is 100% accurate. If I was right about everything I’ve said, I’d be on an island somewhere. That said, here is my ballot as of today
First Team: Ryan Kalkbrenner (POY), Eric Dixon, Kam Jones, RJ Luis, Zuby Ejiofor, Micah Peavy
Second Team: Steven Ashworth, Alex Karaban, Jahmyl Telfort, Zach Freemantle, Thomas Sorber
HM (no order): Solo Ball, Liam McNeeley (will he play enough games?), Kadary Richmond, Ryan Conwell, Chase Ross
The last few spots on the second team were tough. And Ashworth/Peavy was a close decision, but Micah Peavy’s defense is special and the Head to Head battle in the one game we’ve got was the tiebreaker.
Now this is a very fun thought experiment. I thought of this two ways, one where the player is from, and two, going by school. Rather than asking for clarification, it’s my piece and I wanted to do both.
East Team (reps. From Georgetown, Villanova, UConn, SJU, Seton Hall, Providence)
PG: Micah Peavy, SG: RJ Luis, SF: Liam McNeeley, PF: Eric Dixon, C: Zuby Ejiofor
I cheated here. I knew this team needed shooting and I couldn’t run Kadary/Luis/Ejiofor/Peavy together, so I moved Peavy to the one and got McNeeley in here. Building a roster with this team was tough, but I thought this would be the best version.
West Team (reps.: Xavier, Butler, Marquette, Creighton, DePaul)
PG: Steven Ashworth, SG: Kam Jones, SF: Ryan Conwell, PF: Jahmyl Telfort, C: Ryan Kalkbrenner
I favor the fit on the West much better, but the East team has so much talent and would be a matchup nightmare. Give me the East.
Then from location:
East: PG: Kadary Richmond (Brooklyn, NY), SG: Solo Ball (Leesburg, VA), SF: RJ Luis (Miami, FL), PF: Eric Dixon (Willow Grove, PA), C: Thomas Sorber (Trenton, NJ)
West: PG: Steven Ashworth (Alpine, UT), SG: Kam Jones (Memphis, TN), SF: Micah Peavy (Cibolo, TX), PF: Liam McNeeley (Richardson, TX), C: Ryan Kalkbrenner (St. Louis, MO)
Have to go with the West here. I didn’t know where to put Memphis, but with so much of this league centered on the Coast, I went with anything not EST as “West.” I definitely missed someone, and have some error somewhere, so I am eager to see someone correct me.
So if we’re talking nationally, Houston. You don’t play at Houston if you aren’t tougher than a $2 steak. Those guys would just find a way to survive. If just Big East, SJU for the same reason, but less confidence.
And if we are talking just these two teams, it gets tough. I think it comes down to Patrick McCaffery vs Micah Peavy for last two standing, the two coaches' kids (the coach of Texas Powerhouse Duncanville is his father, David Peavy). McCaffery seems very savvy, but I think I trust Micah Peavy more. He seems like a guy who has some weird survivalist instinct, and if Patrick McCaffery has a similar temper to his father, I could see him trying to get in a macho match with a zombie and I don’t like his odds.
This has to be walk backward right? It would be annoying, but I like speaking. Tommy can barely understand me on the podcast already, he’d be screwed if I tried to reverse words.
Walking backward means I probably can’t do a “cool guy walking away from explosion” in my life which does suck, but I think it’s better than the alternative.
Completely unrelated to anything, but if Disney messes up this new Daredevil show, I'm going to be very triggered. The first three Netflix seasons are all spectacular. It's not just generic superhero media, it's a legit drama that just also has visceral, street-level action. It rules. No pressure Disney.
Now, Mr. Dana Gardens in the reply said something called a Nehi, which I now need to track down (if I see it in a store I will point and say “hey” I’m getting this). But the definitive gold standard for Orange Soda is Fanta. It’s my go-to soda, it’s excellent.
Bonus Definitive Fanta Rankings:
Orange Fanta
John Fanta
Grape Fanta (and all other flavors)
Sorry John, but you must understand.
All other orange sodas pale in comparison to Fanta. Sprite and Starry are basically identical (especially out of a fountain) and Coke and Pepsi aren’t too dissimilar, like I can take either. Orange sodas… nah just Fanta.
Crush second because of the Turtle from Finding Nemo. That guy rules. Stewart’s third because I don’t remember the last time I’ve had it, but I have before. Sunkist fourth. And I need to get in the Jarritos bag, I will need to reevaluate its rankings, and is an NR for now, but I would expect it to slot firmly in the second spot.
Elon has put forth far too many pro-Nazi accounts. I’m all for differences of opinion and whatnot, but Nazis? In 2025? Celtics Shaq. Pick a Nazi and I don’t like them. Hot take, but I stand firm here.
I also get really annoyed by people who pretend they are experts on things they clearly know nothing about. I'm not a basketball expert, I'm 0-1 as an AAU coach (and I do a show with an actual former and future, D1 Head Coach in Scott Pera). I try to be pretty open and what I know and what I don't, but also am learning, and try to pass on whatever I can learn in the easiest way possible to understand. When there is something I am relatively knowledgeable about and someone tries to pretend they are an expert when they know less than me, a non-expert... triggers me to no end.
Depends on the weather. If it’s not too cold, I’ve got this generic Under Armour sweatshirt I rock all the time. And if it’s cold, I’ve got this sweatshirt from the place I used to work at back home, shoutout Tru2Form Hoops. That heavy-ass sweatshirt and I have been through wars together. It’s lasted years (like YEARS) and is still the warmest sweatshirt I think any human will ever find. Probably rocking my Commanders hat my brother got me for Christmas too.
I can dodge these questions all day :)
Prediction
I feel like I’ve said everything about these teams, especially since the narrative for them largely hasn’t changed in two months, sans a good game here or a bad game here. I think this game is low-scoring. I said that the first time and it didn’t work out, despite Georgetown shooting straight bricks from three, but maybe this time it does. This game screams coin flip to me, so that’s what I just did.
Final Score: Butler 65, Georgetown 66
No, but in all seriousness, I truly think this game is 50/50. I expect Butler to be favored because they are at home, and I’ll take the points for the sake of a contest. For the sake of real money, it’s under or nothing. I could see Butler making more plays, or I could see Peavy taking Telfort off his game, and a healthy Jayden Epps making a difference. Think this is a good spot for Pierre Brooks to get going against a smaller defender. The coin said sweep, so I’m taking the sweep.