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Through three games, the Butler Bulldogs have been largely underwhelming. Nothing the Bulldogs have done screams confidence to an average fan, but they have the chance to change their fortunes as SMU comes to town. This is a key opportunity for both teams as they look to prove they can compete with the top of their respective leagues (SMU in the ACC still feels weird).
SMU has a pretty talented roster, including former Butler Bulldog Guard Chuck Harris, who is averaging 13.3PPG this season, after averaging 13.4PPG last season.
SMU Players To Know
Projected Starting Lineup: Boopie Miller, BJ Edwards, Kario Oquendo, Samet Yigitoglu, Yohan Traore
Kevin “Boopie” Miller is their star player, after averaging 15.6PPG last season for Wake Forest. Through their first three games, Miller has shined for Andy Enfield’s squad, averaging 20.7PPG and 7.7APG, putting up at least 20 points and 7 assists in each of his three games this season. Through three games, Miller has been excellent and should cause problems for the Bulldogs.
BJ Edwards has taken a huge step up this year, averaging 14.3PPG and 6.7RPG. He’s been very effective this season, shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from three (5/10). Edwards has scored 43 points this season, after scoring just 56 in 18 conference games last season. He’s taken a huge offensive uptick and was the team's best defender last season.
Kario Oquendo is a slash-first guard/forward who thrives on his ability to get to the rim. Of note, he’s averaging 2.67 steals per game this season, and was impressive in his two seasons at Georgia, before coming off the bench with Oregon last season. Yohan Traore was a five-star center who started his career at Auburn, before transferring to UCSB. He has struggled defensively in his college career, though averaged 14.5PPG last season.
Samet Yigitoglu is an interesting player. He played his first game of the season against UNCG after just recently being ruled eligible. Yigitoglu comes to SMU by way of Turkey and is an elite post-scorer. He’s super skilled, and has multiple moves he can go to on the block while looking to dunk absolutely anything within range. I’m interested to see how Yigitoglu matches up at the HM level, especially in his second college game.
The Bulldogs should have a huge advantage with size on the wing (SMU starts three guards and two bigs, if they choose this lineup, though have two forwards off the bench), or speed on the perimeter at the four, though SMU will have an advantage at guard and on the interior.
SMU’s Play Style
SMU has been playing at a blazing-fast pace this season, they have the lowest average possession length in the country, with just 13.1 seconds per offensive possession. SMU is also T12 in fastbreak points this season. They have multiple guards who handle the ball in transition, creating mismatches on the perimeter and generating three-point opportunities with how well they space the floor in transition.
In the halfcourt, they rely a lot on their offensive rebounding. Their bigs, along with UMass transfer Matt Cross, are hard-nosed and attack the glass well. They have a lot of ball screen action offensively in the half-court, with any of their guards functioning as ball-handlers (usually Miller), actively looking downhill.
Noteworthy, on baseline out-of-bounds plays SMU ran stacks at the elbow, trying to have their guards cut to the bucket for an easy layup. If SMU continuously beats Butler on these looks, this will catch my eye, because it's apparent in their UNCG game in particular. They ran this play multiple times, which led to UNCG blowing it up here and getting a transition opportunity.
Defensively, the Mustangs play with a lot of pressure in a halfcourt setting, and look to gamble for steals often, leading to their offense. They play with heavy intensive ball pressure, and are aggressive in passing lanes, giving up some open looks as a result. SMU averages 10.7 Steals Per Game this season, ranking T25.
Butler's Keys to the Game
Handle the Ball Well Under Pressure
Get Back in Transition, as SMU looks to push anytime they can
Use Positional Size to Create Mismatches on the Wings
REBOUND
Butler has struggled with limiting turnovers all season, which will be tested these next two games. SMU’s best offense is in transition, and limiting turnovers will limit how effectively they can push the ball. If SMU can get out in transition, they will get to the bucket easily and get their shooters in rhythm three-point opportunities in transition. If Butler values the ball, the Bulldogs take a huge step towards winning this game.
It ties in with handling the ball, but SMU pushes in transition off misses. Butler must be very disciplined with their transition defense. Even in Butler’s best half of basketball, the second half against WMU, Butler would get a huge bucket, the crowd would celebrate, then you hear the refs whistle and WMU headed to the line. Against SMU, this cannot happen.
SMU starts three guards. The majority of their lineups are three-guard lineups. If Butler is running Jahmyl Telfort at the three, as they usually do, he’s going to have a huge size advantage over a 6’4” Kario Oquendo/Chuck Harris. Telfort can use his large frame to get inside, while a big man is stuck guarding McCaffery on the perimeter. If they have a smaller guard on McCaffery instead, same idea, except Telfort can now initiate offense and blow past Yohan Traore, who has struggled on the defensive end his entire career. This is a position Butler has to take advantage of.
As mentioned above, SMU is excellent on the offensive glass. Butler has been outscored in the paint in two of their three games, and over their last two contests are giving up an average of 16PPG off of second-chance points. SMU, coincidentally, is averaging 16PPG from second-chance points in their last two games. Box out, everybody has to rebound. Rebound as a team, and look to execute in the halfcourt.
Game Prediction
The first road game is usually a very tough spot, especially for a newer team like SMU. The environment could be rough, and Hinkle should be popping.
That said, there isn’t much on tape for me to pick Butler here. Transition defense has been a problem with this group, and that will be exploited. Augusto Cassia will have his hands full on the glass with Traore, Cross and Yigitoglu. SMU’s ball pressure will cause problems for the Bulldogs, too.
Butler could find some open looks on the perimeter, and use Telfort as an offensive initiator, which will be a very key matchup. The Mustangs do not have a matchup for him, and Butler will need him to be as aggressive as he was in the season opener against Missouri State if they are to leave victorious. I hope the Bulldogs can hit shots, and bring a different level of defensive intensity to what we’ve seen this year.
Butler has been the worst in the Big East through two games on the offensive glass, barely ranking inside the Top 300 in offensive rebounds allowed per game. Butler is also the worst team in the conference at limiting turnovers, and that’s a recipe for disaster in this matchup.
SMU 86, Butler 78
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