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It’s been a long break since the last Butler game, where the Bulldogs battled down to the bitter end but unfortunately lost to UConn. With this break extending to the New Year, there’s no better time to recap the season that has been thus far, and then look forward to what the New Year can hold for the Bulldogs.
Slow Start
The Bulldogs started with a game against a new-look Missouri State team, a team that is quite a bit better than I thought they would be entering the season. It got the season started in the win column, but revealed some problems that have persisted all season. The Bulldogs gave up 16 offensive rebounds to an undersized Missouri State team (which now ranks as the 42nd best offensive rebounding team in the country), and did not have an answer at PG. The Bulldogs finished this game with 19 turnovers, with Pierre Brooks having six, and starting PG Landon Moore (Bizjack missed this game) having four.
Coach Gipson does this as a tribute to Clarksville, TN, where Austin Peay is located
Bizjack returned next game and played one of his better games from a statistical perspective, but it wasn’t enough. Austin Peay came into Hinkle Fieldhouse and upset the Bulldogs 68-66, headlined by a dominant performance from star guard LJ Thomas, and a showstopping dunk from Hansel Enmanuel. Butler had 16 turnovers, and also had another weakness exploited – the lack of a defensive alpha, one that would get brought back later in the year.
Train Gets Back on Track
After a ho-hum first half against Western Michigan, the Bulldogs blew the doors off the MAC bottom feeder to move to 2-1.
SMU came to town, marking the return of former Butler G Chuck Harris. His night was spoiled despite going for 21 points, as the Bulldogs beat the Mustangs 81-70, answering an important call to get the season going the right way. This game marked a change for the Bulldogs in a couple of facets. They controlled the pace, calming down a very chaotic SMU style, used the long ball to their advantage (12/26 from three, Kolby King and Patrick McCaffery combining for 8/12) and saw Jahmyl Telfort initiate a lot of the offense, forcing mismatches and attacking those.
After a win over Merrimack which saw the Warriors score eight, yes just eight, second half points, the Bulldogs headed to Arizona with a message to send.
And message sent.
Butler beat a good Northwestern team in controversial fashion, though controlled the entire game and deserved a win. Jahmyl Telfort was once again excellent, and Andre Screen off the bench provided a huge boost, with 15 points, seven boards and three blocks.
Then a day later Butler played easily their best game of the season, knocking off an impressive Mississippi State team, in a win that continues to age well. Butler found a rhythm and got both of their stars going, with Pierre Brooks and Jahmyl Telfort combining for 46 points on 16/30 from the field and 7/12 from three. Butler also got 13 points off the bench from Landon Moore, who played arguably the best game of his Bulldog career. It also didn’t hurt that the Bulldogs shot 12/22 from three, that always helps.
However, some problems remained constant. Butler, despite returning home with gold, averaged 14.5 turnovers per game in Arizona and only forced five per game. Butler gave up 16 more shot attempts to Mississippi State and 14 to Northwestern, and still came out victorious. While impressive, those results would unfortunately prove unsustainable.
Where We Are Now
After an unimpressive win over a bad Eastern Illinois team, a game that I largely missed due to traveling and was told “don’t bother” watching back, Butler went on a five-game losing skid.
The losing streak started against Houston, who just suffocated Butler. But this game being the first road challenge and the most physical defense they played, I was willing to give it a pass.
Then Butler dropped an egg in the first half against North Dakota State, and had no answer for the Bison’s two stars, Jacksen Moni and Jacari White. White started the game absolutely on fire, and Butler had no answer to stop him. He finished with 27 points, shooting 7/9 from long distance. Then to close the game, North Dakota State went to a lot of five-out actions, which Butler had no answer to, and led Jacksen Moni to finish with 25 points, and some crucial buckets late, which led to a North Dakota State upset victory.
Here are some clips of defensive miscues. Leaving White for his fourth and fifth made threes of the half (bad screen defense, Telfort helping off after he's made FOUR THREES). Then Brooks leaving Moni, a 43% three-point shooter, twice, after completing a miracle comeback is equally infuriating. And then Screen for good measure just up and leaves Kam Jones which is unfathomable.
Butler then faced two Wisconsin-based opponents, and met the same fate. Neither team shot the ball well, but poor starts and only forcing five turnovers across these two games while getting bullied inside led to Butler facing defeat. It was two stretches against Wisconsin, a horrid start and some poor coaching at the end of the first half that saw the Badgers leave Gainbridge victorious.
Then Marquette, a team that generally doesn’t rebound the ball well, collects 20 offensive rebounds (46.5% of their misses) and forced 14 turnovers (they do this very well) en route to a win, despite being outshot substantially from every level of the field. Butler caught Marquette on a bad day and lost largely due to effort plays and some lapses in basketball IQ, which makes that one especially frustrating. This was a game where the Bulldogs had every opportunity to change back the narrative on their season, but they couldn’t seize the opportunity. Marquette took 75 shots, to Butler’s 48. Marquette also had 28 second-chance points and 14 fastbreak points, to Butler’s seven and two, respectively.
Butler then played Connecticut, and have generally played the Huskies pretty well even given some of UConn’s ultimate success the past few seasons. But those games have all ended the same, with a UConn victory. Butler dominated the free-throw line, but could not run the Huskies off the three-point line, giving up 11 made threes, including two crucial ones to Alex Karaban.
I went back and watched this game here are some notes:
After the first six minutes or so, I have no idea how this game ended so close. Butler’s offense is not connected and getting any easy looks (King just had a decent drive to the bucket) and Butler’s defense has just not been on the same page at all. Telfort matched up with Karaban in the middle of the floor when everyone else was in a 2-3 zone (don't zone UConn btw). He just left his corner, where UConn found a wide-open Jayden Ross and he nailed a three
Boden Kapke has thrown some beautiful passes in this game. Had two of his five assists on the season in this game, and is something I hope we see more of out of this break
Butler got back into this game with defense. They forced UConn off their spots and into tough jumpers over a Butler defender.
Andre Screen is blocking everything. Averaging 3.3BPG in his last three games. He has a block rate of 9.2% which is best in the conference and 27th best in the country. With Cassia being injured, Screen’s rim protection has been crucial, and was evident in this game
End of half struggles again, clipped below
Good fight from this group, those Karaban plays late were killers. This team still can compete in this league, they just have to put out a consistent 40-minute stretch and cannot give up these runs where they make these elementary mistakes
31-0 explained: 9-0 to North Dakota State, 2-0 Marquette (Joplin made the lone bucket in the last 2:20), 4-0 Houston, 6-0 UConn, 10-0 Wisconsin
Losing Streak Trends
In this six-game slide since the Bulldogs left Arizona (including the EIU game), the Bulldogs have shot it very competitively with their opponents, 42.7% to their opponents' 43.8%. 34.9% from three compared to 36.1% from their opponents, and are averaging 6.5 more points at the free-throw line than their opponents. Those numbers don’t scream five game losing streak, they scream competitive, especially considering the score of that Houston game.
What does is the fact that Butler is being out shot-attempted 62.0-50.7. Butler is averaging nearly ten turnovers per game, their opponents are averaging 7. Butler is getting 6.3 offensive rebounds per game, and their opponents 9.2. When your opponents on average are getting up 11 more shot attempts per game, you have to play nearly flawless basketball, and that’s tough to sustain. Butler’s first-shot defense is generally fine, but giving up so many extra opportunities, and turning the ball over leading to easy transition opportunities the other way, burns them.
If we remove the Eastern Illinois game, the trends generally remain the same (that game helped the numbers I referenced above, hence why I left it in #honesty), one trend becomes clear. The Bulldogs are being bullied on the interior.
Butler Opponents: 46.1% FG, 53.6% 2PT
Butler: 40.4% FG and 44.4% 2PT
Those numbers are quite a bit different, and show a clear pattern that against these bigger teams, Butler struggles with physicality and generating shot attempts inside.
On the season, Butler is one of two Big East teams shooting below 50% from inside the arc on the season, and I imagine you can guess the other one.
I’ll give you a hint, it’s Seton Hall.
Another issue that Butler has yet to find an answer at guard. Their opponents are largely controlling the game, and have a substantially better assist-to-turnover ratio (2.09 to 1.49) across this stretch. Jahmyl Telfort is the best offensive initiator this team has, but none of Butler’s guards have yet emerged. Finley Bizjack has clearly been struggling with his confidence in this stretch, and for a player who thrives with that chip on his shoulder, is really detrimental.
Kolby King is not a true point guard, but he has proven he needs more minutes. He’s been the most effective option at guard by a longshot, and maybe coming off the bench can give Bizjack his confidence back. King has been a rare bright spot in this losing skid, and needs more minutes to show what he can do.
Butler will need these guys to show substantial improvement if they aim to get this season back on track.
What Do We Do From Here?
I’ve seen a lot of dialogue on the Twittersphere on whether or not Butler should fire Coach Matta.
Look, fans have every right to be frustrated. I personally think the approach of entirely building Butler basketball, a school that doesn’t have the same resources as other programs and has thrived on internal development and finding those diamonds in the rough, through the transfer portal was misguided.
Through the high school ranks, this staff has brought in Finley Bizjack, Boden Kapke, Augusto Cassia and Evan Haywood, while retaining Connor Turnbull from the previous staff. Just five players across three seasons, with only one of them, Bizjack, consistently starting in year three (Cassia was finding his role before injury). That’s not enough to have a sustainable program, especially at a school like Butler which thrives on character, identity, and that vision of the Butler Way.
It was the wrong way to build a program, and I fully believe Coach Matta deserves flack for that. A lot, frankly. That said, the approach has changed. Butler has the NIL money to be competitive and has the program's best high-school recruiting class coming to town next season. These talented freshmen can all play a huge role in bringing Butler basketball back to where we want to see it. There will be growing pains, and next year may not see the return to the ultimate heights, but hopefully, there are flashes of that vision.
And this isn’t to say Butler should go full Dabo Swiney and not use the transfer portal, because that would be foolish. Butler found a gem in Jahmyl Telfort, who should be on NBA Draft boards. The Bulldogs identified Pierre Brooks and turned him from a benchwarmer to a legitimate all-Big East caliber talent. And Butler’s guards who they brought in last year who left? Both struggling at their new programs. Butler can use the transfer portal, but it should be used to add to their core, not to build a new team every year.
There will be substantial growing pains, especially since Butler loses four of their top five leading scorers after this season. Butler will need to find a scorer or two who can shoulder the load for these younger guys and allow them to develop the right way.
Rest Of Season
This season is not dead by any means. Of these five losses, four of them were to Top-32 KenPom Teams, three in the Top 20. The Big East from 4-8 is wide open, and Butler needs to come out of the break with renewed energy. Butler needs to be better at rebounding the ball and not giving up so many extra attempts. Butler doesn’t have the identity of a team that forces a ton of turnovers, but they have to take care of the ball themselves.
This team shoots the ball so well that they can be competitive in any game. Jahmyl Telfort is an All-Big East caliber player and can win Butler some games. The effort just has to be there, and Butler has to be better in the areas mentioned above at length. A veteran team should not be making as many mental mistakes as this team seems to.
But these next 40 minutes, heck even the next 10, against an upstart Villanova team will tell us a lot about this group. Are they ready to get everything back and fight to finish in that top tier of the conference and build on last season's success, or should fans be focusing on next season? Because 0-3 in conference play, staring down a trip to St. John’s and the AMP is dangerous, even given Butler’s absurdly front-loaded conference schedule.
The schedule gets easier as the year goes on, but the Bulldogs need to build momentum to show fans those games will matter, and this group that the last ride for many of them isn’t going out on a whimper.