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Image: FC Bayern Munich
I would like to apologize to any Germans for my awful grammar in the title of this post, but I am just too excited! We've officially entered the second half of the season, and we're kicking off Sunday with the first-ever NFL game played in Germany! Possibly hoping to recapture the magic that was the 4-time NFL Europe Champion Frankfurt Galaxy, Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Seattle Seahawks at the home of Bayern Munich, Germany's most storied (association) football club. Here's how Tondo and I think this game, as well as every other Sunday matchup, will end against the spread.
Basel's ATS 2022: 28-28-2 (2-2-2 Week 9)
Tondo's ATS 2022: 26-26-6 (2-2-1 Week 9)
Basel's Week 10 Spreads
Early Morning Game
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At the beginning of the season, if you told me that one of these teams would be entering week 10 6-3 and the other at 4-5, I wouldn't have been surprised. Thinking about which teams actually have which records now would have blown my mind then, but now, I think it's perfectly emblematic of how weird this NFL season has been. Despite early struggles, the Bucs used a Vintage Brady drive against the Rams last week to shoot themselves into first in the NFC South, and do not want to halt any momentum against Seattle. The Seahawks have been a surprise this season for sure, and they're consistent enough both in the ground and on the air to match any points the Bucs put up. Tampa's offense has not been the gut punch we've seen in years past, but on a big European stage, and first in the South on the line, I think this 2.5 point spread gives just enough room for a second consecutive week of Brady magic.
Bucs -2.5
1 PM Games
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
I've seen a lot of people try to downplay the Vikings 7-1 record as fraudulent, and while I don't think they'll come out on top in this one, I really can't knock them too hard. Have most of their wins been against mediocre-at-best opponents? Yes, but every skill player for Minnesota has been extremely solid, enough for me to lean towards taking the OVER at 44.5 points. The spread is a bit trickier, as Josh Allen could be a game time decision with his aggravated elbow, but if he plays, I think he could singlehandedly overwhelm Minnesota's defense on the ground. Elbow injuries usually are a sign of relief for teams defending a great quarterback, but not for the Vikings today. Again, I would wait as long as you could before locking in a bet here, but if Allen is in, gimme Bills -6.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
It's been a short week of relief for Jacksonville fans, as they broke a 5-game losing streak in Week 9 with a dub over the Raiders, but I'm sorry to say it's back in to painville for Jags fans as they take on the Chiefs. Mahomes has thrown an interception in each of his last 3 games, but has consistently neutralized it with at least 300 yards and at least 1 TD in each of those outings. According to Lineups' 2022 team defense rankings, the Jags give quarterbacks a lot of room to work in the pocket, and give up a lot of yards when those QBs get the ball in the air. Coach Pederson highlighted the pass rush as a big priority for his defense leading into this one, but I don't see any adjustments they can make in time to handle Kansas City.
Kansas City -9.5
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is going to be an ugly game to watch, but if you're leaning towards New Orleans, I think you'll have a reason to tune into this one. As long as Alvin Kamara leads the way offensively for the Saints today, they'll be able to get a slim win over the worst Steelers team I've probably seen in my lifetime.
Saints -1.5
4 PM Games
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
I can't wait for this game, because once it's over, I won't have to see any more commercial advertising it as the game of the decade. Yes, I know that it's a historic rivalry, but given the context behind these two teams this season, the impact of this game on the entire NFL landscape this year could not be smaller. Aaron Rodgers is definitely one of those guys who can bounce back big after an embarrassing loss, but with a depleted receiving corps, I don't expect much out of Green Bay today.
Cowboys -4.5
Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
This is a tough one to call, meaning it'll be a great game to watch, but a scary one to bet one. Injuries litter both rosters, so that is a null-factor here. For the Niners to succeed defensively, they pretty much have just Justin Herbert to worry about, but for LA, they've got so many San Francisco weapons to lock down that I think they'll be overwhelmed. The Niners are in a prime position to take over the NFC West with a few solid wins, so look for them to be hungry in this one.
Niners -7.5
Tondo's Week 10 Picks
1 PM Games
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Despite all the injuries, the Titans are a hot team. They kept it close with Kansas City and Denver should be no issue for their continued success.
Titans -2.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Lions are a feel good team that are stringing together some wins here and there. Meanwhile, the Bears may have their guy in Justin Fields, who is doing it on both sides of the ball. I want to take the Lions but being in Chicago, I’ll go Bears -3.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Sunny and 85 in Miami and Tua is ready to take over the AFC East. The Browns are patiently waiting for Deshaun Watson to spark some life but in the meantime, Dolphins-3.5 is a lock.
Houston Texans at New York Giants
The Texans know how to keep it close but they can’t secure the wins. They fight but they let down. New York is the better team. Expect them refreshed and ready to roll.
Giants -5
4 PM Games
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders
Battle of bad teams. I think Jeff Saturday is going to surprise some folks, and this might be the game that sends the Raiders hiring a new coach. Give me Colts +3.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are a trash team right now. Incredible pieces stuck in a Super Bowl hangover with no identity right now. The Cardinals are the same. Tons of talent and no direction. This game is a Kliff Kingsbury saver, they need the win.
Cardinals +2.5
See you next week!
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