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Welcome back, bettors! In a similar fashion to last season, we enter Week 4 with 4 undefeated teams. Here's how Will Tondo and I think 3 of those teams will fare today, along with the other 25 teams in action this Sunday.
Basel's ATS 2021: 8-6 (4-3 Week 3)
Tondo's ATS 2021: 6-8 (4-3 Week 3)
Basel's Week 4 Picks
1 PM Games
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
Close games between bad teams are always games you should avoid, but if you really feel the need to add this one to your parlay, take Atlanta on the points. Washington is 0-3 Against the Spread this season, and their offense under Taylor Heinicke has been nothing short of lackluster. That being said, Atlanta's isn't much better, as the Football Team and the Falcons rank 22nd and 28th in total offense respectively. While I think Chase Young can cause some trouble for Atlanta's weak offensive line, the Falcons defense will carry them to the win in this battle of the bottom feeders. Falcons +1.5
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
Arguably the best 1-2 team in the league, the Vikings are a very tough road underdog. Kirk Cousins has been playing some amazing football, and is a must start in fantasy if you've got him. Leading his team to the third best total offense in the league, however, has not been able to keep up with the mistakes made by the fifth worst defense. Minnesota's bad defensive breaks, as well as Dalvin Cook's questionable status, give Baker Mayfield and company plenty of wiggle room to win this one by at least a score. Gimme Browns -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
As good as Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City have been straight up over the years, they're a nightmare against the spread. 0-3 so far this season, as well as 7-9 in the regular season last year, plenty of bettors will likely avoid Mahomes and company this week. However, the Chiefs have played three very good teams so far in 2021, and playing the Eagles will be a great way to get their offense back into a winning mindset. Philly is coming off of a short week which saw them get blown out by Dallas on Monday, and without a clear ground game between Jalen Hurts' interceptions, I think Kansas City should have no problem taking this one by at least a touchdown. Chiefs -7.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
The first undefeated team in this week's column, Carolina has been blessed with a pretty easy schedule up until now, with their only "quality" win in my opinion being against New Orleans in Week 2. Sam Darnold looks comfortable at the helm of the Panthers' offense, and their defense currently ranks first in the league with just 191 yards allowed per game. However, I don't think they'll be able to handle Dallas' breakout offense. Dak, Zeke, and CeeDee have proven to be one of the toughest offensive trios in the league so far, and if they can stay hot, I think they'll have no problem humbling the Panthers. Cowboys -4.5 as my lock this week.
4 PM Games
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers
After a summer of uncertainty, followed by a Week 1 embarrassment against New Orleans, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers appear to be back up to speed. Rodgers has thrown six touchdowns in Green Bay's last two games. Over in Pittsburgh, Big Ben isn't having the same luck, with just three touchdown passes so far this season. On the defensive side of things, the Steelers have been struggling against offenses that are considerably less talented than the Packers, allowing 24 points in a loss to the Bengals last week. Until Big Ben can return to form, expect tough opponents to pick apart the Steelers on both sides of the ball. Packers -6.5
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
This might be my most controversial pick this week, but whatever. I'm sticking with it. Seattle's defense has not been up to speed this season, allow the most total yards per game in the league. Offensively, their offensive line has not given Russ a lot of time to cook, with nearly 30% of his throws occurring during plays under pressure. That being said, once that ball gets into the air, the receiving duo of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are nearly unstoppable. As long as the O-line holds up, and Seattle continues to excel against Jimmy G, I think the Seahawks can be a major challenge early for the Niners. Seahawks +3.
Sunday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Here's the one everybody's been waiting for. The return of the prodigal son to finally answer the question; was it Brady or Belichick that brought six rings to New England? In all honesty, I don't think we'll get an answer to that question tonight, but we will see someone cover, that someone being Tampa Bay. Rob Gronkowski's absence will do little to slow down the Bucs, and with Richard Sherman listed as active on defense, Mac Jones will have a very tough time keeping up with the man whose shoes he looks to fill.
Buccaneers -7.
Tondo's Week 4 Picks
1 PM Games
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
The curious case of the New York Giants. Daniel Jones has been playing well, but the offense led by Jason Garrett is stagnant as can be. The defense isn’t playing to their potential and the team has some major injury woes already. The Saints showed up against the Pats, and picked them apart. They are heading back down to Nola for the first time this season, so they are playing for the fans. Sigh.
I hate to do this, but Saints -7.5.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
This is a no brainer pick. The Jets stink. Derrick Henry should feast on this game. Really no further explanation than that.
Titans -7.5 as my lock of the week.
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
The Colts have been quite the disappointment. Carson Wentz has ankles made of paper
mache. The Dolphins will be without Tua too so this one is a total crapshoot. I was impressed by their efforts against the Raiders last week, keeping it close until OT. This could go either way, but I’ll swing with Brissett and the home field advantage.
Dolphins -1.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Justin Fields had a tough day last week, getting sacked nine times. Brutal. The Lions defense isn’t as dominant, but I can’t imagine the Bears improving in a week. I get home field advantage, but the way the Bears performed against the Browns is a bit unsettling, especially how close the games the Lions have played in. Dan Campbell is itching for a win, while Matt Nagy is quite clueless.
I’ll take Lions +3
4 PM Games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
The Bucs were slight favorites heading into LA, but the Rams impressed and shut down Tom Brady. Aaron Donald led defense is a scary one, and Matthew Stafford is having himself quite the resurgence tour. I think the Rams will win, but the Cardinals keep it close.
Cardinals +4.5
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are a surprising 3-0, led by a tremendous defense and Teddy Bridgewater.
However, they have had a Mickey Mouse schedule playing the Giants, Jets, and Jaguars. The Ravens are one of the hottest teams right now, despite all of their injuries. Vegas says it’ll be a close game, and they’re playing at high elevation. Could we see a 70 yarder from Justin Tucker??
Ravens +1.
See you next week!
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