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Welcome back to Sunday Spreads! After floundering for a week or two, Will Tondo and I took a major leap forward in our betting records last week to finally both pull back above .500. Let's hope the odds are in our favor once again this week as we break down our picks for every game this Sunday.
Basel's ATS 2022: 15-12 (5-2 Week 4)
Tondo's ATS 2022: 12-11-4 (4-1-2 Week 4)
Basel's Week 5 Picks
9:30 AM (Gross) Game
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
I wish I was more excited about this pick than I currently am. The second London game of the season, two classic franchises looking to go 4-1, but two vastly different injury reports. From what I've seen so far this year, Daniel Jones' mobility when the pocket breaks down has been his most significant point of improvement so far, and a huge contributor to the Giants' current record. However, after suffering an ankle injury last week, in the same game where backup Tyrod Taylor sustained a concussion, I think the Giants are going into this one too hobbled for me to throw any cash their way. Add Kadarious Toney, Kenny Golladay, and Wan'Dale Robinson to the list, and I have to go Packers -8
1 PM Games
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
There are always teams at this point in this season who are so hard to evaluate, and I think Houston is a perfect example. At 0-3-1, they're definitely not good, but can string together enough competent moments so that watching their games isn't complete torture. Davis Mills is competent enough when he doesn't turn the ball over, and the defense has honestly done a solid job of preventing games from getting too out of reach. However, this Jaguars offense has been rolling as of late, as Doug Pederson molds Trevor Lawrence into the franchise QB people expect him to be. The Jags have gone toe-to-toe with some much better teams already this year, so look for them to bounce back easily after their loss to Philly.
Jags -7
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Both NFC South rivals enter this one 2-2 s/u, but when it comes to the spread, these Mariota-led Falcons remain the only perfect team against the spread. Could Brady and the Bucs be the one to break the streak? Sorry to be the buzzkill, but I think so. Despite the loss to KC last week, Tom Brady is starting to look like his old self, and it'd be very fitting for him to make a statement win against Atlanta to show that he's still got it. It'll be close, but I think Tampa -10 is the best way to go.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Under vastly different circumstances, both teams in this game enter Week 5 with 2 QBs that are still just trying to get acclimated to the season. After re-orienting themselves last week, I think both Zach Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater are set up for an interesting duel. By the end of both of their games, both QBs looked incredibly explosive on the ground and in the air. In terms of receiving, I think Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the injury report could give the Jets a big swing, Bridgewater has been in the league long enough, and has the legs to keep this one afloat himself. Along with Chase Edmonds, who continues to find more targets as a dual threat RB, and I think Dolphins -3.5 is the safe play here.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Oh, Chicago. I had so much hope for you entering this season, and you've broken my heart several times already. Against the Giants last week, Justin Fields looked lost behind center, forcing Chicago to rely solely on special teams to get on the scoreboard. Kirk Cousins, while not stellar this season, has the experience to hold it together against a team that could barely defend a WILDCAT formation last week. When all is said and done, I won't be surprised to see Chicago with a top 3 pick in 2023, and the Viking covering -7.5 will help them get there.
Washington Commanders at Tennessee Titans
The Titans are not off to the start they were hoping for, but a win against the floundering Commanders this week is exactly what they need to get back into the hunt for what shouldn't be a very competitive AFC South. Carson Wentz continues to struggle this year, and despite a very talented receiving corps to throw to, he can't seem to avoid incoming sacks in time to get the ball in the air. While Ryan Tannehill has not been stellar, Derrick Henry has slowly been returning to form, and Robert Woods has done a great job making himself available on checkdown plays for crucial yards.
Titans -1
4 PM Games
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Another 2-2 team, the Rams are off to a strange start. I see so much potential in this squad, but they just can't seem to shake some glaring problems. While Matt Stafford will scramble in the pocket and chuck it downfield to Cooper Kupp all game, look for Cooper Rush to bring the Cowboys to their 4th straight win under his command. Rush has been the unlikely hero for Dallas this season, throwing 737 of his 1,131 career pass yards in 2022. Defensively, this Cowboys offense is a nightmare for a struggling o-line like LA's, so I really think the most solid play here is Cowboys +5.5.
Tondo's Week 5 Picks
1 PM Games
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans have the talent, but have been inconsistent week after week. Seattle is one of this year's surprise teams, and last week, they figured out how to score heavily. The Saints are 1-3 against the spread, while the Seahawks are 2-2. Is this an Andy Dalton resurgence game? Unlikely. Five points is a generous lead to New Orlans. I love the Seahawks +5.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Both teams had last minute tough losses that you truly hate to see. The Lions have a pretty solid offense, where Jared Goff ranks in the top 10 in yards per attempt, touchdowns, and passer rating. Meanwhile, the Pats defense has kept them in every game this season. This week, it's a lot of new faces due to a long list of injured players on the report. This game is going to be a coin flip, but I believe in Detroit, they need this. Lions +3.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
The proven vet versus the rookie. Allen vs. Pickett. A future rivalry in the AFC? Well, that's too soon to tell. Pickett came in for Tribusky last week, and technically every pass was completed (10 completions, 3 interceptions). The Bills defense won't be too forgiving. The Bills came back after stalling against the Ravens, in what could be a potential AFC Championship matchup. Almost a two touchdown spread is not my favorite thing to pick on, yet the Steelers just blew it against the Jets. Give me Bills -13.5.
4 PM Games
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Hate to say it, but the Panthers are the worst team in the league. When does Carolina pull the plug on Baker? Coming off a win against the Super Bowl Champs, this is a no-brainer pick. San Fran's defense is going to eat this team alive. 49ers -6.5.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Right now, the Cardinals offense is stagnant, while the Eagles seem to be the best team in the NFC. Without DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona just ain't the team. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and Co. are rolling. It pains me to keep riding them, but Philly is that team right now. Eagles -5.5.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Both teams enter this game 2-2. Last season, it was an absolute scoring factory, combining for 89 points and 700+ passing yards. This year, the Chargers have the top rated passing offense, and the Browns have the best rushing offense. We're in for a treat. The Chargers defense will be without Bosa, which is good for fantasy owners of Nick Chubb. However, after a tweet like this, I LOVE Chargers -2.
Sunday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
An AFC North matchup, and it comes at an interesting time. The Bengals started off slow and are now back in the grove of things. Burrow looks solid, Mixon is running quite well, and Coach Taylor is off the hot seat (for now). Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is looking like an MVP, but has been dealt a tough schedule. If the Ravens want to make waves in the AFC, they need to avenge the loss they allowed last week. However, with many key players out with injury, it'll be a lot of pressure for Lamar Jackson to do it all on his own. Bengals +3.5
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