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After 21 weeks of meaningful football, we've finally made it to the Super Bowl. This season, like all others, had its fair share of ups and downs, momentarily lackluster play, and big time moments. Our reward? The chance for the Chiefs to repeat against a much stronger Eagles team than they faced two Super Bowls ago. Will KC prevail, or will Philly stomp out their hopes and dreams?
Today, I'll breakdown how both teams battled and competed throughout the entirety of the season, and how they matchup against their Super Bowl opponent.
Photo: Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
The Storylines
What We Know
The Chiefs look to be the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, redefining the phrase "Dynasty" in the context of the NFL.
The Eagles boast a historic ground attack, and have the perfect personnel to run Vic Fangio's Match-Defense.
The Eagles look for revenge after losing a close matchup on the biggest stage two years ago.
What's Up in the Air
Will the Eagles impressive run game be able to take down one of the historical best run defenses - especially in the playoffs - over the past three seasons?
Will the Chiefs offense be able to produce over 30 points, something they did just once the entire regular season and postseason?
The Chiefs have had plenty of success against man coverage this season, but will they be able to take down the Eagles zone supremacy?
What We Don't Know
How Steve Spagnuolo plans to attack the Eagles' dynamic rushing offense, something he hasn't had to face all season.
If there will be any further controversy regarding the Chiefs and the officiating crew.
Who will win (obviously).
The Analytics
Season Long Matchups
The combined regular season records of teams the Chiefs' 2024 opponents (at the time of playing them) was 71-70, while the Eagles faced a combined record of 67-75. Including the postseason, those combined records are now 97-81 (.545) and 102-93 (.523), respectively.
Over the course of the regular season and postseason, the Chiefs have an impressive record of 11-2 against teams with a record at or above .500, while the Eagles are 8-2 in similar matchups. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 5-0 against teams below .500, while the Eagles are 8-1. The Chiefs seemed to have the tougher road to the Super Bowl, and they have the record to show for it.
When the Chiefs played each team at or above .500, their opponents had a combined winning percentage of .656.
When the Eagles played each team at or above .500, their opponents had a combined winning percentage of .669.
The Chiefs have the clear advantage in terms of the sheer amount of tough matchups, but the Eagles faced a tougher slate of top-end opponents based on winning percentage.
Season Long Team Ranks
Per season-long metrics, here are the following ranks for each major statistical category:
Stat | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles |
Offense YPG | 325.9 (18th) | 367.2 (8th) |
Rush YPG | 105.3 (22nd) | 179.3 (2nd) |
Pass YPG | 222.4 (14th) | 187.9 (29th) |
Points Scored Per Game | 22.6 (15th) | 27.2 (7th) |
Defensive YPG | 320.6 (9th) | 278.4 (1st) |
Def Rush YPG | 101.8 (8th) | 104.2 (10th) |
Def Pass YPG | 218.8 (18th) | 174.2 (1st) |
Points Allowed Per Game | 19.2 (4th) | 17.8 (2nd) |
Sacks | 39 (T-18th) | 41 (T-13th) |
Takeaways | 20 (T-14th) | 26 (6th) |
Giveaways | 14 (T-4th) | 15 (T-6th) |
Turnover Difference | +6 (T-10th) | +11 (6th) |
The Eagles have a 9-3 advantage in all major stats from a numerical standpoint, so now let's see how they fare on a more advanced level:
Stats | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles |
Offensive EPA/Play | 0.04 | 0.10 |
Defensive EPA/Play | 0.00 | -0.11 |
Rush Yards Before Contact | 701 | 1,344 |
Rush Yards After Contact | 1,089 | 1,704 |
Yards After Catch | 2,383 | 1,586 |
Missed Tackles Forced | 103 | 154 |
Pressure Allowed Rate | 28.55% | 35.29% |
Sacks Allowed From Pressure Rate | 22.40% | 25.86% |
Pressure Rate | 51.15% | 53.00% |
Pressure to Sack Rate | 12.54% | 13.27% |
Completion Rate Allowed | 71.98% | 67.54% |
Forced Incompletions (%) | 48 (9.21%) | 59 (11.82%) |
Passer Rating Allowed | 98.8 | 89.5 |
Based on these numbers, the Eagles have a 11-2 advantage advanced metrics, giving Philadelphia a 20-5 total advantage in basic and advanced metrics.
The Chiefs, like last year, bring a veteran roster to their third Lombardi hunt. Outside of the receiving corps, not much has changed with their starting lineups and role players. The Eagles, on the other hand, are revamped from their last Super Bowl appearance. In terms of their returning defenders, they are Brandon Graham (if he gets activated), CJ Gardner-Johnson, Josh Sweat, Darius Slay Jr, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, Reed Blankenship, and Avonte Maddox. This may seem like a lot, but this is just over a third of their 18 defensive players that see playing time throughout the game, and just 5 of the above 8 names have played more than 14 snaps in the Conference Championship. On offense, the biggest addition is none other than Saquon Barkley, who has carried this offense all the way to the Super Bowl.
My Prediction
The Eagles are far more impressive from a metrics standpoint, but the Chiefs have shut down plenty of good teams on their run to the Big Game. Between the Chiefs' consistent physical toughness in the playoffs, and their offense finally finding a rhythm, I have the Kansas City Chiefs winning Super Bowl LIX.
I have a final score of 24-22, with the game ending on a doink field goal by Jake Elliot - giving the Chiefs the heavily coveted and elusive three-peat.
Photo: Ashley Landis/Associated Press
Final Notes
Please, for the love of the game, do not make this game about the refs. There will be a controversial call, as there is in every game. I'm just asking everyone to enjoy football for football and not get hysterical about a penalty or non-penalty. I'm not defending the refs, but the notion the Chiefs get all the calls is bull. Let's enjoy the last game of the 2024 season and watch two great teams battle it out.
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