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This college football season has been one for the ages. We've had some of the biggest upsets, closest games, and historic individual performances in recent memory. College football often gets flak for not being competitive enough outside of the top teams, but this season delivered in that department like it never has before.
Through the highlights and lowlights of the year, two players have been a constant all season long with their dominant play - and in daily debates online, in the office, and at home with your deranged uncles. Both of these athletes have gone above and beyond the expectations of their positions, and both are incredibly deserving of their Heisman hype. Obviously, I'm referring to Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty, two titans among peasants in this year's college football landscape
Today, I'll take on the seemingly impossible task of making a case for one stud over the other. I want to take this conversation deeper than "snap count versus production", as I'll dive into some deeper analytics, as well as the fundamental differences of their respective teams, and how their individual performances impacted their squads. Without further ado, here is my take on who should win the 2024 Heisman Trophy.
Basic Stats
Below is a table highlighting Ashton Jeanty's rushing stats and how he fares against the rest of running backs in the country (minimum 100 carries):
Category | Stat | Rank (Out of 153) |
Carries | 313 | 1st |
Rush Yards | 2,287 | 1st |
Rush TDs | 28 | 1st |
Yards per Carry | 7.31 | 4th |
10+ Yard Runs | 55 | 1st |
Missed Tackles Forced | 123 | 1st |
1st Downs | 106 | 1st |
From a high level, Ashton is far and beyond the best RB in the country. Even when adjusting for the amount of carries he had, he was still just as productive as the other top RBs in the country, and Jeanty had to do more to make that happen. He also never had a game where he rushed for less than 125 yards this season, which is an impressive feat in and of itself.
Now, let's see how Travis Hunter did compared to the best WRs (minimum 75 targets) and CBs (minimum 550 defensive snaps) in the country:
WR Stats
Category | Stat | Rank (Out of 112) |
Receptions | 92 | 3rd |
Receiving Yards | 1,152 | 4th |
Receiving TDs | 14 | 2nd |
Yards per Reception | 12.52 | 73rd |
Yards after Catch | 396 | T-31st |
Missed Tackles Forced | 23 | 8th |
1st Downs | 53 | T-5th |
CB Stats
Category | Stat | Rank (Out of 188) |
Times Targeted | 38 | T-17th (Lowest) |
Receptions Allowed | 22 | T-30th (Lowest) |
Completion % Allowed | 57.9% | 102nd (Lowest) |
Yards Allowed | 205 | T-11th (Lowest) |
Yards per Rec Allowed | 9.32 | T-20th (Lowest) |
INTs + PBUs | 11 (4 INTs, 7 PBUs) | T-8th |
Passer Rating Allowed | 42.0 | 7th (Lowest) |
Let's address offense first, where many will agree Travis is stronger at. He ranks in the top 10 for most metrics, while ranking outside of the top 10 in targets (he ranks T-12th with 115). Although he isn't the most efficient with the ball in his hands, his pure production shows he gets open and usually makes a play on the ball. In fact, he's 3rd in the country with an 80.0% reception rate, trailing only Giles Jackson and Tez Johnson, both of whom were targeted 91 and 80 times respectively.
On defense, he ranks in the top 10 just twice. To be fair, there are a ton of corners within this parameter, and ranking in the 80th percentile for almost all of these metrics is impressive on its own - let alone by someone playing both sides of the ball. Additionally, in 5 out of his 12 games, he allowed a passer rating of 39.6 or lower. For reference, if a QB spikes every pass he throws into the ground on every play, he would finish with a passer rating of 39.6. That means in almost half of the games Travis played in, QBs were better off spiking the ball than throwing towards him. He also allowed less than an 85.0 passer rating in 8 of his 12 games. In comparison, Daniel Jones has a career passer rating of 84.3, meaning that most QBs Travis faced played worse than Daniel Jones when targeting him, which is an admirable accomplishment all things considered.
Advanced Stats
There is obviously more to the story, so let's break down how they fared from an advanced lens. Once again, we'll start with Ashton Jeanty:
Category | Stat | Rank (Out of 153) |
PFF Rush Grade | 97.1 | 1st |
Yards After Contact | 1,695 | 1st |
Yards After Contact per Carry | 5.42 | 1st |
Missed Tackles Forced per Carry | 0.393 | 4th |
Breakaway Yards (15+ Yard Runs) | 1,247 | 1st |
Breakaway Percentage (Total Yards %) | 54.5% | 7th |
PFF Elusive Rating | 214.3 | 1st |
When digging deeper, Jeanty's case becomes even stronger. He once again ranks at or near the top in every advanced metric, and he usually ranks far ahead of the next closest rusher. To make things more ludicrous, he generated over 100 yards after contact in all but one game. With that, over the course of the entire season, Asthon's 1,695 yards after contact would rank 4th for total yardage across every level of college football - which is just mind-blowing just to type.
Let's see if Travis can keep up relative to his positions:
WR Stats
Category | Stat | Rank (Out of 112) |
PFF Receiving Grade | 88.4 | 5th |
Average Depth of Target | 10.2 | T-76th |
Yards per Route Ran | 2.45 | T-31st |
Contested Catches | 11 | T-20th |
Contested Catch Rate | 68.8% | 5th |
Passer Rating When Targeted | 140.7 | 6th |
Out Wide Alignment Rate | 94.3% | 3rd |
CB Stats
Category | Stat | Rank (Out of 188) |
PFF Coverage Grade | 91.1 | 1st |
Yards After Catch Allowed | 91 | T-45th (Lowest) |
Yards After Catch per Reception Allowed | 4.13 | 91st (Lowest) |
Ball Hawk Rate (INTs + PBUs per Times Targeted) | 28.95% | 1st |
Coverage Snaps per Target | 10.50 | 3rd |
Coverage Snaps per Reception Allowed | 18.14 | 13th |
Yards Allowed per Coverage Snap | 0.514 | 7th (Lowest) |
Although he isn't as dominant to the same degree as Jeanty, Travis was fantastic on both sides of the ball from a deep analytics perspective. Offensively, he dominates when facing zone coverage when he can find the soft spots in the defense. In fact, he recorded 754 yards against zone, which ranked 3rd in the entire nation. I also added out-wide alignment as a metric because he doesn't get the luxury of being moved to the slot where the route tree opens up even more. He crucified opposing DBs while nearly exclusively lining up outside - and to boot, the three receivers ahead of Travis in receiving yards lined up out wide on 6.2%, 78.1%, and 86.2% of snaps respectively.
Defensively, he was even more of a threat in terms of advanced metrics. Despite not being the cream of the crop when his man got the ball, he was virtually shutdown when in coverage as the ball was thrown his way. In fact, QBs would often avoid looking his way most of the time. He thrived in man, as 52.1% of his snaps were in single coverage. With this, he allowed a staggering low 29.6 passer rating when targeted, and he allowed less yards per receptions and a lower completion rate when in man versus zone. Even when in zone, he allowed just 78 yards on 168 snaps, or .464 yards per zone coverage snaps, making this his strong suit on a per snap basis. Regardless of the look or alignment, Travis was incredible on the defensive side of the football.
Photo: Laura Domingue/fi360 News
Scheme Fits
Boise State
It goes without saying that Boise State would not be nearly as good without Jeanty. The rest of the RB room combined for just 96 carries, or 23.47% of the non-Jeanty backfield rushes. On top of that, they produced 7 TDs, 350 yards after contact, 28 missed tackles forced, 27 first downs, and 14 carries of 10+ yards - all of which were anywhere between 65% to 85% of Ashton's per touch production on over 3 times less of the workload. If the backups weren't even close to Ashton's per touch production on less than a quarter of the total backfield workload, then it's safe to assume they wouldn't be nearly as productive with his full volume.
As a team, Boise State ran the ball 56.79% of the time, which ranked 33rd in the FBS. Along with that, Boise produced 52.97% of their offense purely off rushing. As far as Ashton's share, he produced 199.1 of Boise's 458.6 total offensive yards per game. This means Jeanty generated 43.41% of Boise's offense, and, outside of him, Boise tallied just 259.5 yards per game. The offense ran through him, and he delivered on a play-by-play basis.
Colorado
Compared to how much Boise runs the ball, Colorado passes at an even higher clip. The Buffaloes currently rank 4th with a 60.76% pass rate, which diminishes Travis's case a bit. The only teams ranked ahead of them in that category are San Jose State, Rice, and Syracuse. What gives Hunter the edge is that Nick Nash and Tetairoa McMillan, two of the three receivers ahead of him in receiving yards, play on offenses that pass the ball 64.59% and 58.82% of their plays respectively.
In terms of usage within Colorado's scheme, 37.48% of their offense was geared towards RPOs and screens, with both play types being used at 15.48% and 22.00% respectively. There is no clear way to dictate what Hunter's singular usage looked like on non-RPO and non-screen plays, so we'll use targets 10+ yards downfield as a parameter here. On 47 of those targets, Hunter recorded 33 receptions for 666 yards and 7 TDs. Despite this category not being a perfect measure, producing 42.19% of your total yardage on RPOs and screens is considerably great, especially with how quick you need to get open and find creases within the defense to make screens and RPOs consistently effective.
The Final Case
For Ashton, the numbers and tape speak for themselves. He was electric on the ground for the entire season, and had one of the best rushing seasons in college football history. What makes his campaign even crazier is the fact he played 40 of Boise's 48 total quarters played. If he stayed with his per carry pace, and he played in all 48 quarters, he would have totaled 2,744 rush yards, 2,034 yards after contact, 33 TDs, 127 first downs, 66 10+ yard carries, and forced 147 missed tackles. With these numbers, Ashton would rank 1st all time in rush yards and tied for 2nd all time in rush TDs. I'm also assuming he would rank first in the rest of the categories listed - but advanced college data only goes back to 2014, so we can't say for sure. Regardless, Ashton had a historic season that will be remembered years down the road.
For Travis, he will always have a case just based on the sheer volume of snaps played. No one should be discrediting his Heisman campaign because he "plays a lot of snaps"; if anything, that should be the main factor driving people to want him to win the Heisman. Yes, we've had two-way players before in college football, but not to the extent of reps or high-level play that Hunter has been able to achieve. On the year, Travis has played 1,422 offensive and defensive snaps combined. For reference, the next closest player this year is Kyle McCord, who played 969 snaps as the starting QB for Syracuse. The fact that Travis not only played 453 more snaps than the next closest player in the entire FBS, but he also averaged 118 snaps played per game, is his best case to win the award. To have the endurance to play 120+ offensive and defensive snaps in 10 of his 12 appearances, and to produce at a top 10 level on both sides of the ball is unprecedented, and may be one of the greatest achievements in college football history.
The Verdict
To be completely candid, I came into this blog pretty much convinced that Travis should win this award. He's top 10 in multiple categories at two of the toughest positions on in the sport, he very rarely left the field, and played within an offense that was pretty limiting from a WR production standpoint. I've always come back to the idea that being on the field constantly and still playing like one of the best players in the country would trump everything else.
Now that I've broken down everything, I've flipped to believing Ashton Jeanty is more deserving of the award. I don't do the "Colorado would be better with Ashton, and Boise would be worse with Travis" routine, because it's a moot point and holds no merit. What I will say is that running the ball is more quantifiable than playing in coverage, and you can very much feel that effect more whenever Jeanty is on the field. Yes, Travis is also a top-notch receiver, and his impact is also apparent within his offense, but not to the same extent that Jeanty's is, so I can understand why some would make that sentiment.
To that end, the sheer feeling of dominance on a snap-by-snap basis from Jeanty is far greater than Hunter's, even when Travis makes outstanding plays. When Ashton totes the rock, it's poetry in motion and an avalanche of boulders at the same time. While I believe that Travis Hunter will ultimately win the award, my choice for the 2024 Heisman Trophy is Ashton Jeanty.
Photo: Kenna Harbison/Boise State Athletics
Final Notes
There are some limitations to the data I shared above, and some I've already mentioned. Along with the RPO and screen dilemma, it's also tough to find data on how often Travis was open and not targeted - or targeted by an inaccurate throw, how often he was the first read in the QB's progression, how tight his coverage was, and how much he truly was in man versus zone. Conversely, there isn't much information out there about what Ashton's yards per carry was if you took away any run over 10+ yards - and how that compares to the rest of the nation, how often the offense turned to him in situations when they should be passing the ball, and the quality of defenses Boise played compared to the rest of his positional peers.
The truth of the matter is that football is the hardest sport to quantify, as there are multiple moving pieces on each and every snap, and not every position is of equal value. Would either of Fluff Bothwell or Isaac Brown been more productive than Jeanty in Boise's run heavy offense? Both were more efficient than Jeanty, and played within offenses that ranked in the top half of college football in pass play rate. Would Travis Hunter have been more effective and had a much stronger case for the Heisman if he just played offense? We can guess that he would have much more energy to take the top off a defense on multiple plays a game, and thus would have better production if given that chance more often. Whatever the argument is, one thing is apparent: we got to see two of the best individual year-long performances in college football within the same season. That alone is amazing, and should not be taken for granted.
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