.png)
NFL MVP races are almost always defined by debate. In my mind, there are four candidates who are worthy of this year's award: Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson. For reasons I'll explain later, I narrowed my selection down to Josh and Lamar, both of whom had great seasons and are equally deserving of the award.
In this breakdown, we'll go further than the box score, as we dive into their surrounding support, matchups, and advanced analytics. Remember, this is just my opinion, and I am sharing information I found important in my selection for MVP.
Photo: Greg Flume/GettyImages
QB Performance
Below is a comparison of Josh Allen's and Lamar Jackson's raw production over the course of the 2024 Season:
Category | Josh Allen | Lamar Jackson |
Completion % | 63.56% | 66.67% |
Pass Yards | 3,731 | 4,172 |
Pass TDs | 28 | 41 |
Rush Yards | 531 | 915 |
Rush TDs | 12 | 4 |
TD % | 5.80% | 8.65% |
INT % | 1.24% | 0.84% |
Total Turnovers | 8 | 9 |
From this point of view, Lamar smoked Josh in almost every category. Combining for over 5,000 yards and totaling 45 touchdowns is wildly impressive, and makes Josh's numbers look inferior by direct comparison. Obviously, football is much more than a box score - otherwise players and teams with the best box scores would take home every award they lead in.
Let's look into some advanced analytics to see if Lamar maintains his edge:
Category | Josh Allen | Lamar Jackson |
Adj. Completion % | 73.3% | 76.3% |
Big Time Throws (%) | 37 (7.66%) | 30 (6.33%) |
Turnover Worthy Throws (%) | 15 (3.11%) | 4 (1.69%) |
PFF Offensive Grade | 91.8 | 94.0 |
PFF Passing Grade | 82.9 | 92.6 |
PFF Rushing Grade | 94.4 | 87.7 |
Tight Window Throw % | 16.8% | 11.0% |
Times Pressured | 176 | 204 |
QB Faulted Pressures (%) | 29 (20.1%) | 32 (18.8%) |
Pressure to Sack % | 7.95% | 11.27% |
As we dive deeper, both QBs are much closer in terms of their operation and their outcomes. Lamar still has a slight advantage from this view, and only having 4 turnover-worthy throws is unbelievable. He's matured immensely as a pocket passer, and he has a near-perfect feel for when to take a shot or when to tuck and run.
Taking QB performance into account, Lamar has the upper-hand early.
Supporting Cast
I don't think anyone would question the difference in surrounding help between both teams. The Ravens are one of the most soundly constructed rosters in the league, and it feels like they constantly have multiple players in the pipeline for key positions.
Below are direct comparisons between both teams and how they fared at each position group:
Category | Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens |
Non-QB Rush Yards | 1,699 | 2,274 |
PFF Rush Grade | 92.7 | 93.6 |
PFF Run Block Grade | 64.5 | 63.5 |
Receiving YAC | 2005 | 2085 |
PFF Receiving Grade | 73.4 | 88.5 |
Average Separation Rating | 3.6 | 4.3 |
PFF Pass Block Grade | 74.7 | 73.3 |
Drops (%) | 17 (5.2%) | 15 (4.5%) |
Defensive EPA/Play | -0.01 | -0.06 |
PFF Defensive Grade | 63.1 | 75.7 |
Non-QB All-Pros | 0 | 5 |
As previously assumed, Baltimore far outclasses Buffalo in this regard. As I state this, we shouldn't fault or diminish one QB's performance more than the other's based on this information, but instead reframe it to consider how much harder one QB has to work for a win than the other given the talent around them.
Additionally, this should not turn into a debate of "well, if Josh had Lamar's supporting cast, he'd be better than Lamar". This is real life. He doesn't have his supporting cast and he has to make do with what he's got. When it comes to football - and specifically QB play - hypotheticals go right out the window (sorry, Burrow and Herbert).
Matchups
Over the course of the season, both QBs faced some high-end defenses, and had to match the performances of high-powered offenses. Both teams struggled out of the gate, but both finished their seasons on incredibly strong notes.
Shoot me, but I'll be using PFF and a very new advanced stat - OASIS (Opponent-Adjusted Situational Impact Score created by @EaglesXsandOs) - to determine how tough their opponents were on both sides of the ball. It's worth noting that I am excluding the Ravens vs Bills matchup in Week 4.
Here are the rankings for every defense each team faced, per PFF:
Buffalo Opponents (Rank) | Baltimore Opponents (Rank) |
Dolphins (17th) x2 | Steelers (3rd) x2 |
Patriots (24th) x2 | Browns (8th) x2 |
Jets (25th) x2 | Bengals (22nd) x2 |
Chiefs (2nd) | Eagles (1st) |
Lions (5th) | Chiefs (2nd) |
Ravens (7th) | Broncos (4th) |
Colts (9th) | Chargers (6th) |
Texans (10th) | Texans (10th) |
Seahawks (14th) | Giants (20th) |
49ers (15th) | Buccaneers (21st) |
Rams (18th) | Cowboys (T-27th) |
Titans (19th) | Bills (T-27th) |
Cardinals (23rd) | Commanders (29th) |
Jaguars (26th) | Raiders (30th) |
It's apparent the Ravens faced plenty of tough defenses, but also got to work against some bottom feeders in the league - including the Bills. The AFC North is a gauntlet in and of itself, making most of their inter-division games toss ups. The Bills opponents were pretty evenly displaced regarding skill level, as they faced five top-10 defenses and four bottom-10 defenses across six games.
Now, let's see where OASIS has these teams ranked:
Buffalo Opponents (Rank) | Baltimore Opponents (Rank) |
Dolphins (19th) x2 | Steelers (6th) x2 |
Patriots (26th) x2 | Browns (11th) x2 |
Jets (29th) x2 | Bengals (30th) x2 |
Lions (7th) | Eagles (1st) |
Seahawks (8th) | Broncos (3rd) |
Texans (9th) | Chargers (5th) |
Chiefs (12th) | Texans (9th) |
Rams (15th) | Bills (10th) |
Ravens (16th) | Chiefs (12th) |
Colts (18th) | Raiders (13th) |
Titans (22nd) | Buccaneers (17th) |
Cardinals (23rd) | Giants (21st) |
49ers (27th) | Cowboys (24th) |
Jaguars (32nd) | Commanders (28th) |
In terms of situational defense, the Ravens faced some defenses who stepped up when they needed to. They played a staggering seven games against top-10 situational defenses, making Lamar's life difficult in a good chunk of those matchups. Josh Allen got off a bit easier on this end, but once again had a healthy variety of strong and weak defenses.
The Final Case
When looking past the box score, it's easy to see that both QBs are on par with each other. Both saw similarly strong defenses, and while Lamar had the better production, Josh had a weaker group around him to get the job done. Wins aren't a QB stat in my opinion, but the Bills did win one more game than the Ravens, so if that's gonna be your end-all-be-all, there ya go.
The last argument I'll make here is the overall impact each player had for their respective teams. When looking at Lamar Jackson, he totaled 5,087 of the Ravens league-leading 7,224 yards, which comes out to 70.42% of Baltimore's total production. He also scored 272 of their 518 points, totaling 52.51% of their scores. On the other hand, from Week 1 to Week 17 (did not play Week 18), Josh Allen totaled 4,262 of the Bills 5,846 yards, equaling 72.90% of their volume. In terms of points, he totaled 246 of Buffalo's 509 points, accounting for 48.33% of their total output.
Regarding matchups against teams who made the playoffs, Lamar faced the Chiefs, Bills, Commanders, Buccaneers, Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, and Texans, which resulted in a 7-3 record in that span. Josh faced the Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Rams, and Lions, going 2-3 in those games. It's worth noting he knocked off the Chiefs' undefeated season, and beat the Lions when they were red-hot, making them the only team to beat both eventual 1-seeds this season.
Finally, both players made big plays and had consistent clutch moments throughout the season. No one performed better than Josh Allen in these tight-game, long-distance moments. On 3rd & 7+ in the 4th quarters, Josh was surgical, hitting 7.2 yards per pass attempt, converting 15 first downs in the process, and was never sacked once. He also faced blitzes on 41.7% of these drop-backs, showing his poise in the pocket to deliver with pressure in his face. He also had plenty of clutch runs, including game winners against the Chiefs and Lions.
The Verdict
This has been the closest MVP race in recent memory, but ultimately, one player will win. Based on the AP votes, it looks like Lamar will win his 3rd MVP, and rightfully so. He had an incredible season on one of the most efficient and productive offenses of all time. That said, Josh Allen doing what he did with no true WR1, a run game that wasn't nearly as effective as other teams in the league, and a defense that wasn't that great, is truly special.
My pick for the NFL MVP is Josh Allen, as he won games time and time again despite the significant roster challenges his team faced.
Final Notes
For those that disagree, the argument for Lamar winning MVP last year over Allen was not because of the box score, it was the fact he was more valuable than Josh was in 2023. The same exact argument should be used this year, especially when both weren't that far off from each other when you dive deep into the numbers.
Comments