Welcome to the third Zona Zone of the 2024 season, where I'll recap the final six games of the year for the Arizona Cardinals.
I'll be real: shit's bleak. The Cardinals went into the bye week hot after a 4-game winning streak in which they outscored their opponents 105-57. The offense was humming, and an inexperienced defense was giving high-level offenses fits. They then dropped two consecutive games to the Seahawks and Vikings, bringing their record down to 6-6 with five games left to play. After such a strong streak, what caused the utter collapse over the final stretch of the season?
I'll do my best to be professional and authentic as I capture what went wrong over this span. Here we go...
Photo: Norm Hall/GettyImages
What Happened???
Before I start, I do want to mention that this season - from a record perspective, went exactly as expected. I predicted the Cardinals would finish 8-9, and they did just that. What I didn't expect, however, was that they would lose as many layups as they did, and that they would have had a real shot at winning the NFC West in 2024.
I'm struggling to find the words to pinpoint exactly where things went sideways. It was a mix of Kyler Murray becoming a pumpkin and playing some poor football, Drew Petzing not getting MHJ involved enough, Jonathan Gannon being incredibly conservative with decision making and failing to be an effective clock manager, and the defense getting exploited where it lacks talent. Gannon's timidity and the lackluster ability of the defense are self explanatory, so I want to use this time to focus on the face of the franchise: Kyler Murray.
I still believe he is a good QB, but he has not lived up to his 1st overall hype. He has a perfect mix of athleticism, arm strength, and improvisation in and out of the pocket, but Kyler doesn't take advantage of that as much as he should. To make matters worse, Petzing's scheme doesn't fully emphasize those traits either.
Let's compare Kyler as a pure rusher (non scrambles and sneaks) to other top mobile QBs in the league:
Player | Rushes | Yards | TDs |
Kyler Murray | 27 | 227 | 4 |
Lamar Jackson | 81 | 581 | 4 |
Josh Allen | 24 | 107 | 3 |
Jalen Hurts | 51 | 236 | 3 |
Jayden Daniels | 56 | 309 | 5 |
Besides Lamar's astounding yardage total carries, Kyler is right in line with the other top QBs. What also stands out is that K1 averaged 8.41 yards per carry on designed runs, with Lamar having 7.17 yards per carry on designed runs as the next closest on the list. Now let's see how each faired in the scrambling department:
Player | Scrambles | Yards | TDs |
Kyler Murray | 40 | 354 | 1 |
Lamar Jackson | 39 | 345 | 0 |
Josh Allen | 42 | 382 | 3 |
Jalen Hurts | 38 | 363 | 0 |
Jayden Daniels | 75 | 595 | 1 |
Just as before, Kyler is on par with the other QBs besides Jayden Daniels. In terms of efficiency within this group, Kyler is third with 8.85 yards per scramble, while Jalen Hurts is first with 9.55, and Jayden is last with 7.93. So if he's right where he should be compared to the other QBs, why do I have a problem with his production?
The answer is simple: he's more productive as a passer when he gets more designed carries. During Kyler's best season (in my opinion) in 2020, he had 67 designed carries in which he totaled 430 yards and 10 TDs. Although he wasn't as efficient, he was far more productive in the rushing department. In fact, Murray tallied 343 of those designed rush yards from through the first nine games of the season - before he injured his throwing shoulder in Week 11.
When it came to throwing the ball, he was on pace to pass for 4,222 yards and 30 TDs. Among the rest of his peers, he's was also top 10 in completion rate, adjusted completion rate, turnover worthy play rate, scrambles, and first downs. When you pair this with his full rushing profile - including scrambles - at the time, he was in line for 1,073 rush yards and 17 TDs, putting him over 5,300 total yards and 47 TDs. Granted, the shoulder injury greatly derailed that, but Kyler was putting up an MVP-type season before he got hurt. It's also worth noting that this is over the course of a 16 game season; he would have totaled nearly 5,700 total yards and 50 TDs, giving him one of the best seasons by a QB over the past decade.
One would think an offensive mind would take advantage of that, but Petzing has failed to do so. Yes, Kyler was coming off an ACL tear from 2022, but he proved he was past that in 2023 - and even more so whenever he carried the rock in 2024. Ultimately, scared coaching led to yet another collapse this season. Yes, Kyler can absolutely be a better decision maker as a passer and runner, but the blueprint needs to be solid to assist him with that task.
Who's to Blame?
I've ripped into Petzing quite a bit throughout this season, and I've given Kyler his fair share of criticism as well. There's one person I've been vague on all year, and I did so to see where the direction of this team is headed. That man is none other than Jonathan Gannon.
Does Gannon have all of the horses on the roster necessary to make this a Super Bowl contending organization? Absolutely not, and I would argue we may miss the playoffs again next season if certain changes aren't made. Before last season started, Jonathan talked a big game about "looking for f---ing killers." But by Week 16 of 2024, he'd done a complete 180 and said "the joy is competition" in regards to how they were handling the final two games out of playoff contention.
Although this doesn't seem that horrible, I would argue that those final two games should be the time you look for your "f---ing killers". Evaluate the roster from top to bottom, because clearly the guys they have getting the majority of reps aren't doing what needs to be done.
As far as his decision making, he couldn't have been worse after the bye week in nearly every major situational test. He often saved his timeouts when he should've been burning them, and in my last Zona Zone, I discussed the Cardinals poor clock management against the Vikings, and how it was the main reason they lost that Week 13 matchup. Fast forward to Week 16 against the Carolina Panthers, and that same poor game management killed Arizona's playoff chances.
On a crucial drive with 3:10 left in the game, Gannon wisely took a timeout after stuffing Carolina on 1st and 10 - which was a pleasant change of pace from previous weeks. Things looked better, but then, he decided to not use his second timeout after forcing 3rd and 5. This forced him to make a play-call quickly, and he chose wrong. He dialed up a blitz with a stunt involved, which Bryce Young had picked apart all game long (6 completions on 11 attempts for 80 yards and a TD up until this point, with two of those incompletions being drops). If he had kept track of this, he would have laid off the blitz and would have had a better chance at stopping it. Alas, the Panthers converted, and the Cardinals had to burn more timeouts as a result.
With a 2nd timeout used, and having help from a 3rd down incompletion after the two minute warning, the Cardinals got the ball back with 1:47 left to play. If JG had used his timeouts more aggressively - and stopped the Panthers on the first 3rd down, they would have gotten the ball back with a little under three minutes. Once again, Gannon lost an entire minute of game clock because he chose to be conservative rather than aggressive.
I still believe in Gannon, but he needs to sure up on his game management, as well as put pressure on the rest of his staff to come up to his level. If not, JG will - and should, be on the hot seat after 2025.
The Silver Lining
This defense overachieved big time on the season. There was a six-to-eight week stretch where they ranked top 10 in almost every basic and advanced analytical category. Some studs made names for themselves in Garrett Williams, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Starling Thomas V, and Mack Wilson Sr. With more defensive help on the way via Free Agency and the Draft, the Cardinals should be equipped to handle most offenses in 2025.
Additionally, veteran leaders in James Conner and Budda Baker re-signed multi-year deals to remain in the desert. Their presence on this team is significant, and the fact that they are coming back for more means they believe in this team and the culture instilled.
As far as the offseason, the Cardinals have roughly $72M in cap space, which is 7th in the NFL, but only 5 draft picks. I trust Monti will make some moves to acquire more capital, but it looks as if the Cardinals will be making their big moves in Free Agency.
Photo: Peter Vonder Stoep/Arizona Cardinals
Final Notes
Another season gone, and another postseason without the Cardinals. If Monti and company can dominate another offseason, I'll feel strong about Arizona's chances in 2025.
Comments