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Last week wasn’t our week, and I clearly didn’t show enough confidence, dropping lines like “I’m as sharp as a spork.” So new approach this week, we’re going undefeated, guaranteed and nothing is stopping us. Redemption.
Recap:
3-7 (oof)
-4.27U
Ok, onto this week
FDSR3 Parlay
Saw this and it’s very sharp. Immediately tailed. Will talk about both of these fights later on.
Under 1.5 Jailton/Rosenstruik+Ulberg Parlay
I like the under in the main event a lot. Jailton will throw a high kick, then shoot a double leg. If he gets that, I think he cuts through Rosenstruik on the ground and ends it quickly. If not, I think it could get greasy, but Rosenstruik throws really hard and we haven’t seen Jailton strike for long periods of time. Jairzinho has the striking advantage, and when he walks forward and has confidence, he shuts people's lights out.
As for Ulberg, well...
Ulberg+KO+Under 1.5 rounds SGP
I think Ulberg has a significant striking advantage over Ihor. I don’t think Ihor grapples here, and Ulberg has knocked out his last two opponents in Round One, he’s found his groove in this LHW division. Plus, after how Ihor did a legend in Shogun, the MMA gods will make him pay for that. You don't dance on Shogun and get away with it. Ulberg is an incredibly technical striker, has a real advantage here and I think he just runs right through Ihor.
Battle/Green FGTD
This fight is very even to me, hence the line. I slightly lean toward Battle, but when I look at both of these guys, I don’t see a ton of finishing upside, and I see two dudes who are incredibly tough. Battle on very short notice took an absolute beating from Rinat Fakhretdinov (spelling) and lived to tell the tale. A lot of Battle’s finishes come from wearing guys down and just breaking them, but Gabe Green is one of those guys with 15 minutes of cardio and pressure, and he doesn’t go down. Ian Garry caught him clean a couple of times, and he just kept walking forward. Yohan Lainesse hit him with a brutal right hand which knocked Green down, Green got up, kept walking forward, and eventually broke Lainesse. Both of these guys are incredibly tough and I don’t see a ton of finishing upside here, I really like the price at -150.
SGPx Ulberg KO+Almeida
Talked about both of these earlier, but DK has these 33% SGPx boosts, so yeah I better put them to use. These two fights will make or break my night.
Daniel Rodriguez
The line was +230 earlier in the week and I thought that was too high, yet it’s only gotten wider. I like Ian Garry as a prospect, he’s very quick and has some very slick striking. But D-Rod is one of my guys, he’s got very smooth boxing and his grappling isn’t half bad. He closed as a favorite against Li Jiangling (I might be the only person who scored that fight for D-Rod live), and won, then closed even money against Neil Magny, and now is a massive dog to Ian Garry. Garry’s chin is an issue and he hasn’t been really tested there yet. I think Garry wins, I just think this price is a little wide. Garry is the faster, slicker striker and has a very impressive gas tank, but D-Rod is someone I think can go a legit three rounds and give Garry some trouble. At +230, I took the stab. The line has only gotten better too, which does make me a little nervous (as does the weigh-in issue), but it's too late for worries.
Anthony Smith
This fight will be chaotic, but I trust the wrestling and grappling advantages that Smith has. Anthony Smith is one tough-ass dude and I think he will be able to take what Walker hits him with and eventually break Johnny Walker and beat him on the ground. I think this spot sets up well for Lionheart and I think he’s the value side at even money. Not only that, I don’t see this fight going to the scorecards, so I like his ITD prop, too. I lean toward him winning by submission but will take ITD just to be safe, along with Smith straight up.
Full Card:
FDSR3 Lay to win 2.5U
Under+Ulberg to win 2U
Ulberg KO SGP 2U to win 2.1U
Battle/Green FGTD 1.5U to win 1U
SGPx 1.25U to win 1.47U
D-Rod 1U to win 2.3U
Smith 1.1U to win 1U
Smith ITD 1U to win 1.4U
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