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Last week, we started off this series by letting barttorvik.com's projections set some under/overs for us for next season. This week, we're continuing it with more totals for Big East teams and some numbers for the conference as a whole.
Will UConn finish higher or lower than 4?
Ryan Cassidy: Lower. Love the pieces they’re returning (shout-out CT native and 2024 First Round Draft Pick Donovan Clingan) but don’t underestimate the pieces they lost. Impossible to overstate the importance of Andre Jackson and Adama Sanogo on last year’s team’s success. Love the talent on the Huskies, but I believe they’ll be missing their veterans next season.
Michael DeRosa: This UConn team should be fantastic, but after losing three NBA players, including a lottery pick, we expect them to be a top-five team again? This is much closer to their ceiling projection than their floor. I’m a truther for Donovan Clingan as a first-round/lottery pick next year, but this projection would imply that Karaban takes a massive leap, Castle is all he’s projected to be and then some, this group defends at the same level as last year, they find a go-to offensive option and someone takes over the leadership role that Jackson held. I can’t project all of that. This team should be really good, but Top Five is too much for me, so I’m saying lower.
Thomas Cavanagh: Push. I think the No. 4 ranking is just right. The defending national champs should remain contenders with Tristen Newton returning, plus Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan primed to make the coveted freshman-to-sophomore leap. Cam Spencer is a dead ringer for Jordan Hawkins, plus the “Fantastic Five” recruiting class brings boundless potential. It’s very difficult to repeat as national champions, but the Huskies should remain at or near the top of the AP poll every week this season.
Chris Thedinga: I mean, the only reasonable response here is 'lower', right? UConn loses Andre Jackson, Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo (40 ppg, 17 rpg, 7 apg). That's a whole lot of production. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer enters alongside freshman Stephon Castle -- who are both really solid additions! But sheesh, fourth? I think they'll be closer to fourth in their own conference. *ducks for cover*
Matt St. Jean: This one has to be lower. I really like this UConn team, but it's a group that could easily improve its standing in the Big East from last season without meeting the highs last year's group did in con-conference play. The Huskies will finish in the top ten, but I'm guessing the inexperience in the lineup leads to some early hiccups that keep the group outside of the top four.
Will Butler's offense finish higher or lower than 112?
Ryan: Higher. Much will come down to the shooters Matta found to surround Posh Alexander. DJ Davis, Landon Moore, Finley Bizjack will need to create space for Posh and Jalen Thomas to operate. I’ll take the Butler Bulldogs’ shooting woes ending in year two of Thad Matta’s tenure.
Michael: Ahh yes, my Butler Bulldogs. Had arguably the worst offense in Power Six basketball last season, but it’s a completely new squad. Shooting is a worry for me, considering four of the likely five starters (Posh, Telfort, Brooks, Thomas) didn’t eclipse 33% from three last season. They will need Finley Bizjack and DJ Davis to light it up from deep, which definitely can happen. Coach Matta has only had three offenses below rank 100 in his college career, but they’ve all come in his last five seasons as a coach. Despite also being concerned about how all these guys fit together, I’m going to say higher. They will play like a team and get something out of the point guard position and that should be more than enough to eclipse this number. If it’s lower, I’ll be pretty miserable all year, so let’s hope it’s higher.
Thomas: Lower. This is going to sound harsh, but I can’t imagine how this Butler offense will be anything but unwatchable next year. They lost too much backcourt talent in the portal with Simas Lukosius, Chuck Harris, and Jayden Taylor departing, DJ Davis is the only proven three-point threat on this team, and all of the post players aren’t dynamic enough to make up for the deep-range deficiencies on this roster.
Chris: LOWER! The Bulldogs' offense finished in 247th place in offensive efficiency last year, and they didn't bring in enough weapons to change that. If Posh Alexander and DJ Davis are expected to be the primary offensive contributors, I don't see any way this team creeps close to 100th offensively. I like Bizack and Boden Kapke in a few years, but for now, a whole lot of 'meh' on the offensive side for Thad Matta.
Matt: Lower. Butler could improve dramatically from last season and not hit this mark. Thad Matta's moves make this a better group than last year, but most of the improvements should come at the defensive end. Shooting with be a real struggle for the Bulldogs yet again.
Will DePaul's defense finish higher or lower than 164?
Ryan: Lower. Blue Demons lost their best defensive piece in Nick Ongenda (tips-off in the Summer League with the Utah Jazz in a few weeks). Coach Stubblefield has left a lot to be desired when it comes to defense, and I don’t see an incoming piece that changes it. Stubblefield’s seat continues to warm up as his defense remains porous.
Michael: DePaul was incredibly injured last season and ranked No. 180 in defensive efficiency as a result of that. They were without shot blocker Nick Ongenda for most of the season and looked better on that end when he returned, but he went pro. So, who takes over the center spot for DePaul? Is Abass the guy to alter shots inside? The On3 ranking has him as a Top-100 guy, but he’s unranked everywhere else. 164 is pretty low though, by staying healthy and utilizing the high-level athletes they bring into the program this season, I think they finish higher than this number.
Thomas: Lower. DePaul was brutal on defense last season when Nick Ongenda and Yor Anei missed substantial time, and I don’t see them improving on that side of the ball without them this season. The Blue Demons could get pushed around a lot with their lack of frontcourt size.
Chris: This one is a little tougher than the first two. I guess lower, again? I promise I'm high on this conference despite all of these 'lower' predictions. But on a roster without a quality piece taller than 6'8, the good Big East teams are going to have a field day down low. Kalkbrenner, Clingan, Soriano, etc. are going to obliterate the Blue Demons in the paint. This is one where I can see them being around 120 heading into conference play and then falling off the board.
Matt: DePaul's defense was awful for long stretches of last season, although that was mostly during the stretch when the team had to rely on Da'Sean Nelson as a small-ball center. With the way the roster looks right now, Tony Stubblefield will be asking Nelson to play that role again next year. I like DePaul's guards defensively, but I don't think this team has the size. Lower.
Will Georgetown's offense finish higher or lower than 98?
Ryan: Higher. As much as I’m upset with Ed Cooley, it’d be facetious to claim he’s not a rock-solid coach. Providence’s offense hasn’t finished lower than 98th since 2019, and the further Cooley strays from The Flex, the better that number seems to get. With a roster newly reloaded with former four-star recruits, I’ll take Cooley producing a solid season in year one.
Michael: This is the easiest one on the board for me this week. This Georgetown team will exceed this projection on both ends. That No. 200 defense ranking is insane, no wonder we’re talking about the offense. Still, in his 12 seasons at Providence, Coach Cooley only had one offense fall below this number according to Bart Torvik and three according to KenPom. This number is far too low. I think Georgetown is a team that ranks in that 50-70 range both offensively and defensively all season and is just a solid ball club. Also, if you don’t know now you will learn, Jayden Epps is a star. Higher.
Thomas: Lower. Ed Cooley will need time to rebuild a dilapidated Georgetown program, and they will be taking a step back in offensive playmaking with the departures of Primo Spears and Brandon Murray. There are too many unproven players on this roster to convince me this can be a top-100 offense.
Chris: Higher. I look at the roster, and I have to believe that this is a top 100 offense. Akok Akok (hopefully) will figure it out this season and a few of the transfers are intriguing. Massoud and Epps especially catch my eye and should bring enough firepower to get Georgetown above 98. Dontrez Styles is another piece that, while known for defense, could blossom in DC. In all the surrounding conversation, don't forget that Ed Cooley is a very good basketball coach.
Matt: Lower. Ed Cooley is a very good offensive coach, but I don't think this group has the talent to crack the top 100. Heath and Epps projects as a nice scoring duo in the backcourt, but the depth falls off fast after that. Akok and Massoud both provide more on the defensive end than the offensive one, Cook is facing a huge step up in level of competition, and Styles has yet to find production in college. If everything comes together, I could see it. But how often do things go perfectly in college basketball?
Will the number of Big East teams to finish outside the top 100 be higher or lower than 2?
Ryan: Push. Bottom of the Big East is solid this year, but in a great conference: somebody has to lose. Between DePaul, Seton Hall, Georgetown and Butler there are a lot of unknowns and possible trip-ups. Give me two outside the Top 100, a slight improvement compared to the three last year.
Michael: Since the start of the “New” Big East in 2014, the conference has had four seasons where one or fewer teams ranked outside the Top 100, four seasons where exactly two teams ranked outside the Top 100 (St. John’s ranked 101 in one of these seasons, and the Hoyas were at 106 in another) and two seasons where exactly three teams ranked outside the Top 100 (the two most-recent seasons, thanks to DePaul, Butler and Georgetown). That’s four seasons lower than this number and two seasons higher. Considering we’re expecting these teams to be much better next season, I’m going to say lower. I think this line should be set at 1.5, personally.
Thomas: Higher. Georgetown will undergo struggles as they put the Ewing era behind them, while Butler and DePaul will be in a scrum at the bottom of a crowded conference.
Chris: Push. I'll take the number smack on the head at +350. I think Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown are the only three with the floor low enough to be below 100. But I think the conference strength will keep it at two or less no matter what -- sort of how the analytics viewed the Big 12 last season. So, it'll be either two or one, but I'll go with two.
Matt: Higher. Between DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall, and Georgetown, this conference should see at least three teams outside the top 100. The top of the Big East is incredibly strong, and that means life could get difficult for the teams at the bottom.
Will the number of Big East teams to finish inside the top 20 be higher or lower than 4?
Ryan: Lower. Top 20 is a damn good year, and we don’t take that for granted in the Big East. Our conference probably has a total of five teams with top-20 aspirations, I’ll take the safe bet and say at least two fail that mark. However, give me six NCAA Tournament bids!
Michael: I think four is the perfect number for this question. Marquette, Creighton, UConn and Villanova are four Top-20 teams in my mind. So the question becomes, do I think one of the other seven teams in this league is more likely to join the top four or does one of those four underperform expectations? I’ll say higher, I’m a homer and think one or more of the outsiders can make a jump, even if one of these four teams underperforms expectations.
Thomas: Lower. There will be a healthy dose of tournament-caliber teams in the conference, but there will only be a few “great” teams in the conference. Only Creighton, Marquette, and UConn fit that billing.
Chris: I'll go higher. Something would have to go quite wrong for any of Creighton, Marquette, or UConn to be outside of the top 20. Then, there's a group of teams that have a real shot of finishing there as well. Villanova, St. John's, Xavier, and Providence all are right within striking range. Once in conference play, I could see two of these teams jumping into the top 20.
Matt: Higher. Creighton, UConn, and Marquette should be locks to finish this high. Villanova, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's all have the talent to reach that mark as well. I like the odds of things breaking the right way for two of those four teams.
Will the number of Big East teams to win 20 regular season games be higher or lower than 5?
Ryan: Higher. Math isn’t my strong spot, but I believe eight non-conference wins + twelve Big East wins would do the trick. UConn, Creighton, and Marquette will all eye 25-win seasons, and Villanova, Providence, St John’s and Xavier all hold NCAA Tournament aspirations. Last season, five Big East squads reached that magic number, I’ll take a slight uptick for 2024.
Michael: This one is also tough and comes down to schedules, which we don’t have, yet. So, I’m stumped and have no idea how to answer this question, so I do what every writer does when they get stumped, I went to sports-reference.com. I found out that the conference win percentage as a whole was 56.7% last year, the second lowest in the “New” Big East, and still had exactly five teams hit this number. I also found that the average conference win percentage is 59.43%, opening up this spreadsheet in Excel. The two seasons that most approximate this average are 2021-22 (59.6%) and 2014-15 (59.4%), and in both of those seasons… exactly five teams were at or exceeded 20 wins before the start of the BET. Crap. All those numbers for nothing. So, I flipped a coin. Heads for over, tails for under. It was heads. Higher. Plus, I’m writing for a Big East blog, do you think I want to put “lower” here? Screw that.
Thomas: Higher. The previously-mentioned Creighton, Marquette, and UConn should remain at the top of the conference, while Villanova, Xavier, and St. John’s are not far behind them. There is enough separation between these six teams from the rest of the conference to believe that the Big East won’t be cannibalizing itself.
Chris: I'll say higher here, too. I think the conference will beat each other up a fair amount. Nobody is going to have 27 wins, but a lot of teams will be in that 20-26 range.
Matt: Higher. I think we see a very strong showing from the Big East in non-conference play that bolsters the overall win totals for the conference. It might come down to the wire, but there are a few teams that can pick up nine wins before conference play and then eleven against Big East opponents. I'm looking at you, Providence, Xavier, and St. John's.
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