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Let's talk some conference championship winners!
The Jerome is one of my favorite competitions of the year. While I would definitely like some better results (casually omitting I usually finish in the bottom half of America), I am trying not to overthink this year. Let's ride.
America East - Vermont
Exhibit A of not overthinking, the Catamounts have posted a whopping 13-2 conference record, and their two losses came on the road when they couldn't find their identity for a few days. They've steamrolled just about everyone else, minus an OT scare vs. NJIT and a come-from-behind win over Bryant last week. This is Vermont's conference.
Atlantic Sun - Liberty
Liberty lost the tiebreaker for the #1 seed, as Kennesaw State beat the Flames head-to-head. But to me, Liberty's body of work is a bit more consistent - and better - than KSU. They have 8 wins over KenPom Top 100 teams this year, a gritty defensive win over Bradley (#78), and Ritchie McKay just signed a monster extension as their head coach. Liberty has the momentum in the ASUN.
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
Few teams have been more dominant in their conferences than Eastern Washington has in the Big Sky. They took an undefeated record against league opponents into the final week of the season, but I'm chalking their two straight losses to finish the year to rolling over and tuning up for the tournament.
Big South - UNC Asheville
On the topic of dominant teams in their conference, UNC Asheville is certainly close to the top of the list. They're a far cry away from their 4-27 record just 5 years after Mike Morrell took over as head coach of the Bulldogs, and now they have their best team in years. Asheville looks to play in its first postseason basketball of any kind since their NIT appearance in 2018; I'd be concerned about Longwood, who is their only real competition, if Asheville hadn't been 2-0 against them in the regular season.
Colonial - Charleston
Despite Charleston's three losses on the year, they're somehow considered - at best - a fringe bubble team. Simply put, they're too desperate to let the CAA Tournament slip. I have raved about them all season long, and the Cougars are revolutionizing the "misfit model" of team composition - you wouldn't expect this to be a team of D2/D3/JUCO's and former D1 benchwarmers. The Cougars need this more than any other conference contender.
Horizon - Cleveland State
I see plenty of folks choosing Youngstown State and Northern Kentucky, which are both perfectly valid choices. But with the field wide open, this tournament is going to come down to creating more offensive chances. The Vikings have been extremely good offensive rebounding team, ranking second in the Horizon League behind only Detroit Mercy in that category. Former Iowa State role player Tristan Enaruna has been a big reason why; I like the offense to run through the big man and pick off some big-ticket contenders like Youngstown & NKU, which hold a combined record of 2-2 against the Vikings.
Missouri Valley - Drake
The MVC is one of the tougher conferences to pick, and also one of the most top-heavy. The top seven teams each have at least double-digit wins, and plenty of them are against each other. But the Drake Bulldogs have the best body of work in the MVC, having knocked off more high-quality opponents than their competitors like Bradley & Belmont have. Wins over Louisiana and Mississippi State seal the deal for me. Drake won a thriller play-in game as the 11 seed in 2021, and can set themselves up nicely for a 12-seed or better this year if they take home the conference title.
Northeast - Farleigh Dickinson
There were a lot of pundits who totally wrote off FDU after Greg Herenda was fired. But in comes Tobin Anderson, who coached St. Thomas Aquinas (DII) to a 209-62 record (yes, almost a 78% win percentage) over 10 seasons. He toed the line between keeping the talent that was already in Teaneck (Ansley Almonor & Sebastian Lemaute) and brought in his entire front-court from STAC. Turns out, the talent gap isn't that big after all - Demetre Roberts and Grant Singleton, both standouts up the Hudson, are averaging a combined 31 points per game; while Sean Moore is playing reliable defense. FDU is the only team in the NEC that's beat #1-seed Merrimack twice, and it's reasonable to think they can do it again.
Ohio Valley - UT Martin
UTM had the unfortunate task of rebuilding the entire program after head coach Anthony Stewart passed away unexpectedly a few years ago. After Montez Robinson coached the team through the remainder of the year, the Skyhawks brought in Ryan Ridder, who brought Bethune Cookman back to some standard of success. Now, UTM has put together their first winning season since 2016-17, and they've largely done it through the transfer portal. This is a team that's beat both the #1 and #2 seeds once already - they can get some momentum and do it again.
Patriot - Colgate
Other than a freak loss at American on the road in early February, the Raiders have been absolutely unblemished. 2022 March Madness fan favorite Keegan Records is putting together another great year, and Tucker Richardson is having the best season of his career. Add in the fact that this is Matt Langel's deepest team in recent history, and you've got yourself a punch to the NCAA Tournament for Colgate.
Southern - Furman
This is Bob Richey's fifth 20-win season in six years, and somehow it just seems like Furman keeps getting better. The Paladins are first in the SoCon in just about every category - offensive AND defensive efficiency (by a longshot), effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, opponent turnover rates, and opponent 2-point field goal percentage. They've been dominant in just about every facet of the game - give me the Paladins here.
Summit - Oral Roberts
The team with the nation's longest active win streak (14) has that post for a reason. A perfect 18-0 in Summit League play, the Golden Eagles are showing no signs of even slowing down. Love me some Max Abmas and for Oral Roberts to get back to the NCAA Tournament...this time, it won't be as a 15-seed like it was when they stunned the nation two seasons ago.
Sun Belt - James Madison
The Dukes have some quality wins and some bad losses this year. But two things stand out - they score a ton of points, and play good defense. They won their only game against #3 Louisiana, split with #2 Marshall, and lost their only game against #1 Southern Miss. James Madison has been getting solid contributions this year from ex-Mount St. Mary's standouts Vado Morse and Mezzie Offurum, as well as ex-Seton Hall role player Takal Molson. The Dukes have enough firepower to make a run at the Sun Belt in their first season outside the CAA.
West Coast - Gonzaga
The WCC bends over backwards to ensure either the Zags or St. Mary's will make the tournament every year - they give the #1 and #2 seeds THREE BYES EACH while the other teams duke it out for the chance to be buried alive by the monsters. Each year, I go back and forth on who I like to come out on top. St. Mary's is probably a popular choice given their likability and the fact that they can realistically beat the Zags in the title game. But the Zags were simply too dominant in their most recent meeting last week for me to think they have any chance of losing the title game.
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